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La Liga Value Bets

Find EV Betting Opportunities

Value Bets for La Liga

Find value bets for La Liga fixtures. We compare our probability model against bookmaker odds to identify bets where the odds are higher than our implied probability suggests.

Valencia vs FC Barcelona

high

Sun 6th, 15:15

FT Result

Home

11.50 Fair: 5.74 Betfair Exchange

+100.35%

Model: 17.4%

HT Result

Home

8.64 Fair: 5.07 Pinnacle

+70.41%

Model: 19.7%

Double Chance

Home Draw

3.84 Fair: 2.61 1xBet

+47.13%

Model: 38.3%

FT Result

Draw

6.75 Fair: 4.79 Kambi Group

+40.92%

Model: 20.9%

HT Result

Draw

3.21 Fair: 2.56 Pinnacle

+25.39%

Model: 39.1%

BTTS

No

2.24 Fair: 2.04 Betfair Exchange

+9.8%

Model: 49.1%

Málaga vs Levante

high

Sun 6th, 17:30

FT Result

Home

2.56 Fair: 2.02 Betfair Exchange

+26.73%

Model: 49.4%

HT Result

Home

3.10 Fair: 2.75 Pinnacle

+12.73%

Model: 36.4%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.41 Fair: 1.31 1xBet

+7.63%

Model: 76.6%

BTTS

No

2.20 Fair: 2.09 Betfair Exchange

+5.26%

Model: 47.9%

HT Result

Draw

2.26 Fair: 2.24 Pinnacle

+0.89%

Model: 44.6%

Deportivo Alavés vs Osasuna

high

Sun 6th, 17:30

FT Result

Away

3.65 Fair: 3.29 Betfair Exchange

+10.94%

Model: 30.4%

BTTS

Yes

2.10 Fair: 1.97 Betfair Exchange

+6.6%

Model: 50.8%

HT Result

Away

4.41 Fair: 4.27 Pinnacle

+3.28%

Model: 23.4%

HT Result

Draw

2.07 Fair: 2.01 Pinnacle

+2.99%

Model: 49.6%

Espanyol vs Sevilla

high

Sun 6th, 20:00

FT Result

Away

3.60 Fair: 2.70 Betfair Exchange

+33.33%

Model: 37%

BTTS

Yes

2.02 Fair: 1.76 Kambi Group

+14.77%

Model: 56.8%

Double Chance

Draw Away

1.67 Fair: 1.57 1xBet

+6.37%

Model: 63.9%

HT Result

Away

4.13 Fair: 3.94 Pinnacle

+4.82%

Model: 25.4%

Getafe vs Celta de Vigo

high

Mon 7th, 18:00

FT Result

Away

3.70 Fair: 3.28 Betfair Exchange

+12.8%

Model: 30.5%

BTTS

Yes

2.46 Fair: 2.39 Betfair Exchange

+2.93%

Model: 41.8%

HT Result

Draw

1.90 Fair: 1.87 Kambi Group

+1.6%

Model: 53.5%

Elche vs Real Sociedad

high

Mon 7th, 20:30

FT Result

Home

3.10 Fair: 2.35 Betfair Exchange

+31.91%

Model: 42.5%

HT Result

Home

3.58 Fair: 3.10 Pinnacle

+15.48%

Model: 32.2%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.62 Fair: 1.41 1xBet

+14.89%

Model: 70.8%

BTTS

No

2.38 Fair: 2.09 Betfair Exchange

+13.88%

Model: 47.9%

HT Result

Draw

2.32 Fair: 2.27 Pinnacle

+2.2%

Model: 44.1%

FT Result

Draw

3.60 Fair: 3.53 Betfair Exchange

+1.98%

Model: 28.3%

Sevilla vs Valencia

high

Fri 11th, 20:00

FT Result

Away

3.55 Fair: 2.69 Betfair Exchange

+31.97%

Model: 37.2%

BTTS

Yes

2.00 Fair: 1.83 Betfair Exchange

+9.29%

Model: 54.6%

HT Result

Away

4.20 Fair: 3.92 1xBet

+7.14%

Model: 25.5%

Double Chance

Draw Away

1.65 Fair: 1.55 1xBet

+6.45%

Model: 64.4%

HT Result

Draw

2.07 Fair: 2.01 Pinnacle

+2.99%

Model: 49.7%

Double Chance

Home Away

1.39 Fair: 1.37 1xBet

+1.46%

Model: 72.8%

Racing Santander vs Deportivo Alavés

high

Sat 12th, 13:00

FT Result

Draw

3.75 Fair: 3.62 Betfair Exchange

+3.59%

Model: 27.6%

FT Result

Home

2.45 Fair: 2.39 1xBet

+2.51%

Model: 41.8%

BTTS

No

2.30 Fair: 2.29 Betfair Exchange

+0.44%

Model: 43.7%

Osasuna vs Espanyol

high

Sat 12th, 15:15

FT Result

Away

4.22 Fair: 3.74 1xBet

+12.83%

Model: 26.7%

BTTS

Yes

2.04 Fair: 1.97 Betfair Exchange

+3.55%

Model: 50.7%

Athletic Club vs Elche

high

Sat 12th, 17:30

FT Result

Away

6.60 Fair: 5.19 1xBet

+27.17%

Model: 19.3%

FT Result

Draw

4.45 Fair: 3.95 Pinnacle

+12.66%

Model: 25.3%

Double Chance

Draw Away

2.50 Fair: 2.24 Bet365

+11.61%

Model: 44.6%

HT Result

Away

6.00 Fair: 5.51 Bet365

+8.89%

Model: 18.2%

HT Result

Draw

2.30 Fair: 2.24 Bet365

+2.68%

Model: 44.7%

Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano

high

Sat 12th, 20:00

FT Result

Away

22.00 Fair: 10.88 Betfair Exchange

+102.21%

Model: 9.2%

FT Result

Draw

9.80 Fair: 6.04 Betfair Exchange

+62.25%

Model: 16.6%

HT Result

Away

12.00 Fair: 7.48 Bet365

+60.43%

Model: 13.4%

Double Chance

Draw Away

6.00 Fair: 3.88 Bet365

+54.64%

Model: 25.8%

HT Result

Draw

3.40 Fair: 3.00 Bet365

+13.33%

Model: 33.4%

BTTS

Yes

2.12 Fair: 2.05 Betfair Exchange

+3.41%

Model: 48.7%

Celta de Vigo vs Málaga

high

Sun 13th, 13:00

FT Result

Away

5.08 Fair: 2.82 1xBet

+80.14%

Model: 35.5%

HT Result

Away

5.50 Fair: 3.89 Bet365

+41.39%

Model: 25.7%

Double Chance

Draw Away

2.05 Fair: 1.66 Bet365

+23.49%

Model: 60.2%

BTTS

Yes

1.95 Fair: 1.69 Bet365

+15.38%

Model: 59.2%

Levante vs FC Barcelona

high

Sun 13th, 15:15

FT Result

Home

12.40 Fair: 5.55 1xBet

+123.42%

Model: 18%

HT Result

Home

8.00 Fair: 4.98 Bet365

+60.64%

Model: 20.1%

Double Chance

Home Draw

3.75 Fair: 2.63 Bet365

+42.59%

Model: 38%

FT Result

Draw

6.76 Fair: 5.00 1xBet

+35.2%

Model: 20%

HT Result

Draw

3.00 Fair: 2.80 Bet365

+7.14%

Model: 35.7%

Real Sociedad vs Atlético de Madrid

high

Sun 13th, 20:00

FT Result

Home

3.18 Fair: 2.87 1xBet

+10.8%

Model: 34.8%

HT Result

Home

3.50 Fair: 3.25 Bet365

+7.69%

Model: 30.8%

FT Result

Draw

3.75 Fair: 3.62 1xBet

+3.59%

Model: 27.6%

BTTS

No

2.25 Fair: 2.18 Bet365

+3.21%

Model: 45.9%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.61 Fair: 1.60 Bet365

+0.63%

Model: 62.4%

HT Result

Draw

2.30 Fair: 2.29 Bet365

+0.44%

Model: 43.6%

Villarreal vs Real Betis

high

Mon 14th, 20:00

FT Result

Away

3.70 Fair: 3.30 Bet365

+12.12%

Model: 30.3%

HT Result

Draw

2.37 Fair: 2.23 Bet365

+6.28%

Model: 44.8%

Double Chance

Draw Away

1.90 Fair: 1.79 Bet365

+6.15%

Model: 55.9%

What is a Value Bet?

A value bet exists when the bookmaker's odds are higher than our calculated fair odds (implied from probability). This means the bookmaker is offering better odds than the true probability suggests.

How We Calculate Value

We convert our probability model's prediction into implied odds using: Fair Odds = 100 / Probability%

For example, if we give a 50% chance to an outcome, the fair odds would be 2.00. If the bookmaker offers 2.20, that's a +10% value bet.

Value % Explained

0-5% - Small value edge
5-10% - Good value
10%+ - Strong value

More Value Bets

Looking for value bets across all leagues? Visit our main Value Bets page for comprehensive coverage.