An FDR ticker priced from the betting market, not FPL's static 1-5 rating.
Colour the ticker by projected points instead, and see exactly what each club's best attacker, defender and goalkeeper are forecast to score in every fixture.
| Club | GW1 | GW2 | GW3 | GW4 | GW5 | GW6 | xGF | xGA | Clean sheet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | COV (H) 2.53–0.55 | AVL (A) 1.75–1.04 | CHE (H) 2.04–0.98 | SUN (A) 2.09–0.80 | BHA (A) 2.00–0.80 | LEE (H) 2.73–0.67 | 2.19 | 0.81 | 49% |
| Man City | BOU (H) 2.39–0.94 | CRY (A) 1.91–1.13 | COV (H) 3.18–0.72 | MUN (A) 1.55–1.47 | SUN (H) 2.53–0.82 | LIV (A) 1.49–1.47 | 2.18 | 1.09 | 39% |
| Man Utd | HUL (A) 2.02–0.77 | IPS (H) 2.79–0.81 | EVE (A) 1.73–1.27 | MCI (H) 1.47–1.55 | FUL (A) 1.81–1.11 | TOT (H) 2.49–1.05 | 2.05 | 1.09 | 39% |
| Liverpool | NEW (A) 1.72–1.07 | NFO (H) 2.12–1.01 | IPS (A) 2.31–0.94 | FUL (H) 2.19–0.88 | BOU (A) 1.74–1.22 | MCI (H) 1.47–1.49 | 1.93 | 1.10 | 38% |
| Chelsea | FUL (A) 1.81–1.21 | BHA (H) 2.12–1.00 | ARS (A) 0.98–2.04 | HUL (H) 2.79–0.88 | BRE (A) 1.71–1.38 | BOU (H) 2.10–1.14 | 1.92 | 1.28 | 34% |
| Aston Villa | BHA (A) 1.54–1.26 | ARS (H) 1.04–1.75 | HUL (A) 2.03–1.11 | NFO (H) 1.86–1.19 | TOT (A) 1.81–1.43 | BRE (H) 1.82–1.19 | 1.68 | 1.32 | 31% |
| Everton | CRY (H) 1.48–1.19 | BOU (A) 1.34–1.61 | MUN (H) 1.27–1.73 | TOT (A) 1.59–1.61 | IPS (H) 2.15–1.03 | HUL (A) 1.78–1.24 | 1.60 | 1.40 | 29% |
| Brentford | TOT (H) 1.92–1.32 | LEE (A) 1.53–1.40 | SUN (H) 1.71–1.16 | BOU (A) 1.34–1.60 | CHE (H) 1.38–1.71 | AVL (A) 1.19–1.82 | 1.51 | 1.50 | 27% |
| Crystal Palace | EVE (A) 1.19–1.48 | MCI (H) 1.13–1.91 | FUL (A) 1.40–1.37 | IPS (H) 2.15–1.00 | LEE (A) 1.53–1.37 | NFO (H) 1.63–1.29 | 1.51 | 1.40 | 29% |
| Nott'm Forest | LEE (H) 1.46–1.21 | LIV (A) 1.01–2.12 | TOT (H) 1.92–1.35 | AVL (A) 1.19–1.86 | COV (H) 2.15–1.04 | CRY (A) 1.29–1.63 | 1.50 | 1.54 | 27% |
| Newcastle | LIV (H) 1.07–1.72 | TOT (A) 1.39–1.60 | BOU (H) 1.42–1.33 | LEE (A) 1.34–1.41 | HUL (H) 1.89–1.02 | COV (A) 1.56–1.24 | 1.45 | 1.39 | 30% |
| Spurs | BRE (A) 1.32–1.92 | NEW (H) 1.60–1.39 | NFO (A) 1.35–1.92 | EVE (H) 1.61–1.59 | AVL (H) 1.43–1.81 | MUN (A) 1.05–2.49 | 1.39 | 1.85 | 20% |
| Bournemouth | MCI (A) 0.94–2.39 | EVE (H) 1.61–1.34 | NEW (A) 1.33–1.42 | BRE (H) 1.60–1.34 | LIV (H) 1.22–1.74 | CHE (A) 1.14–2.10 | 1.31 | 1.72 | 23% |
| Brighton | AVL (H) 1.26–1.54 | CHE (A) 1.00–2.12 | LEE (H) 1.62–1.19 | COV (A) 1.56–1.26 | ARS (H) 0.80–2.00 | SUN (A) 1.24–1.44 | 1.25 | 1.59 | 25% |
| Fulham | CHE (H) 1.21–1.81 | SUN (A) 1.24–1.48 | CRY (H) 1.37–1.40 | LIV (A) 0.88–2.19 | MUN (H) 1.11–1.81 | IPS (A) 1.56–1.30 | 1.23 | 1.67 | 23% |
| Leeds | NFO (A) 1.21–1.46 | BRE (H) 1.40–1.53 | BHA (A) 1.19–1.62 | NEW (H) 1.41–1.34 | CRY (H) 1.37–1.53 | ARS (A) 0.67–2.73 | 1.21 | 1.70 | 24% |
| Sunderland | IPS (A) 1.32–1.25 | FUL (H) 1.48–1.24 | BRE (A) 1.16–1.71 | ARS (H) 0.80–2.09 | MCI (A) 0.82–2.53 | BHA (H) 1.44–1.24 | 1.17 | 1.68 | 24% |
| Coventry City | ARS (A) 0.55–2.53 | HUL (H) 1.66–1.37 | MCI (A) 0.72–3.18 | BHA (H) 1.26–1.56 | NFO (A) 1.04–2.15 | NEW (H) 1.24–1.56 | 1.08 | 2.06 | 18% |
| Hull City | MUN (H) 0.77–2.02 | COV (A) 1.37–1.66 | AVL (H) 1.11–2.03 | CHE (A) 0.88–2.79 | NEW (A) 1.02–1.89 | EVE (H) 1.24–1.78 | 1.07 | 2.03 | 17% |
| Ipswich Town | SUN (H) 1.25–1.32 | MUN (A) 0.81–2.79 | LIV (H) 0.94–2.31 | CRY (A) 1.00–2.15 | EVE (A) 1.03–2.15 | FUL (H) 1.30–1.56 | 1.06 | 2.05 | 18% |
Highest expected goals per game across the window.
Highest clean sheet chance per game across the window.
Most goals conceded per game across the window.
Every fixture ticker on the internet colours its grid with the same number: FPL's own fixture difficulty rating, a whole number from one to five that the game publishes before a ball is kicked and never touches again. It cannot know that a club sold its striker in August, that a defence has conceded eleven in four, or that the away side will be missing three starters. It is a reasonable guess made once, in June, and then frozen for ten months.
This ticker uses the betting market instead. For every Premier League fixture that has been priced, we take the match odds and the over/under 2.5 goals line, strip out the bookmaker's margin, and solve for the pair of expected goal numbers that reproduces those prices. The result is a continuous difficulty rating for both sides of every fixture that reprices itself as the market moves, which is as close to a consensus forecast of a football match as exists anywhere.
Expected goals for (xGF) is how many goals a club is expected to score in that fixture. It is the number to sort on when you are deciding which club to take an attacker from, because goals and assists are where attacking returns come from.
Expected goals against (xGA) is how many they are expected to concede, and clean sheet chance converts that into the probability they keep one. Those two drive every defender and goalkeeper decision. A defender from a club with three fixtures at 0.8 expected goals against is worth more than a more famous name facing 1.6.
Win probability matters less directly for points but is a good sanity check on how one-sided a fixture is, and FPL difficulty is included so you can see exactly where the official rating disagrees with the market. Those disagreements are usually where the value is.
FDR stands for Fixture Difficulty Rating. It is the score Fantasy Premier League gives every fixture on a scale of one to five, where one is the easiest match and five the hardest, shown from the point of view of the club playing it. The important thing to understand about FDR is that FPL sets it before the season starts and leaves it alone, so a rating you read in April was decided the previous summer. That is the gap this ticker exists to close: the FDR column is shown alongside the market-derived numbers precisely so you can see where the official rating has gone stale.
A double gameweek is one in which a club plays twice rather than once, normally because a postponed fixture has been rescheduled into it. Your players from that club can score twice, which is why doubles are when most managers play Bench Boost or Triple Captain. A blank gameweek is the opposite: the club has no fixture at all and everyone you own from it scores nothing, which is what the Free Hit chip is usually saved for.
Clubs with a blank in the window are tagged BGW here and clubs with a double are tagged DGW. Window averages are calculated per fixture rather than per gameweek, so a double against two strong opponents does not disguise itself as an easy run. Push the start gameweek forward to plan a wildcard several weeks out, or narrow it to the next three to decide this week's transfer.
Fixtures, gameweeks and the official difficulty ratings come from the Fantasy Premier League API. Odds come from the same feed that powers the rest of OddAlerts, covering every major bookmaker. When a fixture has not been priced yet, difficulty falls back to our own attack and defence ratings for the two clubs, which are calibrated on expected goals rather than results.
From here, the player explorer and team builder turn these fixtures into projected points for individual players. If you also bet, xG Stats covers underlying team performance, Player Props prices shot and goal markets for the players in your team, and the OddAlerts Football Data API exposes all of it programmatically.
