If you're looking to take your betting from casual punting to a disciplined investment strategy, understanding value is non-negotiable. The Value Bets tool is the engine room of OddAlerts, designed to find instances where the bookmakers have made a mistake in their pricing.
In simple terms, value betting is about finding odds that are better than the true probability of an outcome. If our model calculates that a team has a 50% chance of winning (implied odds of 2.00), but a bookmaker is offering odds of 3.00, that is a massive value bet. This guide will walk you through how to configure the tool to find these edges, backtest your settings, and automate your workflow.
How to Use Value Bets
Using the Value Bets tool isn't just about looking at a list; it's about refining the data to match your risk appetite and strategy. Here is the standard workflow:
- Select Your Market — At the top of the feed, choose the specific market you want to target. Options range from main markets like Home/Draw/Away and Over/Under (1.5 to 4.5 goals) to Half-Time results and BTTS (Both Teams to Score).
- Analyze the Feed — The feed displays the "Live Probability" (from our model) alongside the "Implied Probability" and the "Actual Odds." Look specifically at the Value Percentage column to see how much of an edge is currently available.
- Log The Bet — You can use the one-click odds comparison feature to see all of the latest prices before placing your bet or paper trading. The odds you see in your feed come from your settings.
- Track the Bet — Click the "Track" button directly from the feed. This opens the sidebar where you can assign the bet to a specific bankroll, helping you keep accurate records of your value betting performance.
Key Features
The power of the Value Bets tool lies in its customization. You aren't forced to use a generic model; you can tweak the inputs to find your own niche.
Advanced Filter Customization
This is where you sharpen your edge. You can filter by specific bookmakers, odds ranges, and value percentages. Crucially, you can filter by League Predictability (Poor, Medium, Good, High). This is a proprietary rating OddAlerts gives to leagues based on the model's performance over the last 3-6 months. If you only want to bet on leagues where the model is currently performing well, set this to 'High'.Profit Calculator (Backtesting)
Stop guessing if your strategy works. The Profit Calculator analyzes the last 120 days of data based on your current settings. If you tweak your filters to only show "Home Wins with over 10% value in High Predictability leagues," you can hit the profit tab and instantly see what your P/L would have been in units over the last 4 months. This allows for rapid iteration and improvement.Automated Value Alerts
You don't need to stare at the screen all day. Once you have a filter set up that works, you can enable automated alerts via Telegram. You can set this for Opening Odds (to catch early value) or Closing Odds (triggered within the last hour before kickoff). This ensures you never miss a value play that hits your specific criteria.Full Probability Range Toggle
A game's probability can shift between the time it's first scheduled and kickoff—sometimes up to three weeks. If you toggle on "Include Full Probability Range," the tool will include games that met your probability criteria at any point during their lifecycle, ensuring you don't miss matches where the data has marginally shifted due to schedule congestion.Practical Example
Let's say you want to build a strategy for high-scoring games. You select the Over 2.5 Goals market.
First, you go to settings and set the Probability range to 55-100%. You set the Minimum Games Played to 5, to ensure the stats aren't skewed by early-season variance. You then set the League Predictability to "Good" or "High" to avoid volatile lower leagues.
After saving, you check the Profit Calculator. It shows a loss. You adjust the Value Percentage minimum to 5% and check again. Now it shows a profit of +15 units over 120 days. Satisfied with this backtested strategy, you toggle the Alerts switch. Now, every time a game matches these profitable criteria, you get a notification on your phone.
Tips for Getting the Most from Value Bets
- Iterate with the Calculator: Don't just set filters and hope. Use the Profit Calculator to test different hypotheses. Does raising the minimum odds to 1.80 improve profitability? Test it immediately.
- Watch the Predictability Ratings: Leagues fluctuate. A league rated 'Medium' might move to 'High' as the model gathers more data. Check your settings periodically to ensure you aren't filtering out leagues that have improved.
- Use Closing Odds for Accuracy: If you are struggling with variance, try focusing on Closing Odds alerts. These alerts arrive in the last hour before kickoff when the market is most efficient and the lineups are often known.