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100,000 simulations per match

Football match simulator

Every big match this week, played 100,000 times by our v2 engine. See who wins, the likeliest scores, expected goals and every goal line, anchored to the sharpest betting market.

163 matches simulated Updated every 20 minutes on matchday
Strongest favourite

FC Augsburg vs FC Bayern München

FC Bayern München win 77.1%

Bundesliga · Sat 10 Oct 14:30

Most goals expected

RB Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt

3.82 expected goals · Over 2.5 72.9%

Bundesliga · Sat 10 Oct 17:30

Closest call

Wycombe Wanderers vs Luton Town

37.9% – 24.4% – 37.7%

EFL League One · Sat 10 Oct 15:00

Today 1 match

Tomorrow 9 matches

Thursday 8 October 12 matches

Friday 9 October 26 matches

Athletico PR Atlético Mineiro Brazil Serie A 1.6–1.0 xG 47% Over 2.5 Fluminense Coritiba Brazil Serie A 2.1–0.8 xG 54% Over 2.5 Palmeiras Bahia Brazil Serie A 2.0–1.0 xG 56% Over 2.5 Daejeon Citizen Jeonbuk Motors K League 1 1.5–1.3 xG 51% Over 2.5 Gangwon Bucheon 1995 K League 1 Awaiting odds Incheon United Pohang Steelers K League 1 1.2–1.0 xG 38% Over 2.5 Kashima Antlers Gamba Osaka J1 League 2.0–1.3 xG 63% Over 2.5 Kashiwa Reysol Vissel Kobe J1 League Awaiting odds Qingdao Hainiu Beijing Guoan Chinese Super League 1.1–2.2 xG 63% Over 2.5 Shenzhen Peng City Henan Songshan Longmen Chinese Super League 1.5–1.5 xG 58% Over 2.5 Zhejiang Shanghai Port Chinese Super League 1.9–1.8 xG 71% Over 2.5 Al Kholood Al-Qadsiah Saudi Pro League 1.1–2.1 xG 60% Over 2.5 Al Fateh Al Ahli Saudi Pro League Awaiting odds SJK Lahti Veikkausliiga Awaiting odds Brann Viking Eliteserien 1.6–1.8 xG 65% Over 2.5 IFK Göteborg Västerås SK Allsvenskan 2.0–1.0 xG 57% Over 2.5 Aldosivi Sarmiento Argentina Liga Profesional Awaiting odds PSV SC Heerenveen Netherlands Eredivisie 3.0–1.3 xG 80% Over 2.5 Al Nassr Al Diraiyah FC Saudi Pro League 2.1–1.1 xG 63% Over 2.5 Borussia Dortmund Werder Bremen Bundesliga 2.4–1.0 xG 65% Over 2.5 Shelbourne Sligo Rovers Ireland Premier Division 2.0–0.8 xG 53% Over 2.5 Lens Olympique Lyonnais Ligue 1 1.6–1.5 xG 60% Over 2.5 West Ham United Queens Park Rangers Championship 2.3–1.1 xG 65% Over 2.5 Málaga Espanyol La Liga 1.3–1.3 xG 47% Over 2.5 Gimnasia La Plata Atlético Tucumán Argentina Liga Profesional 1.6–0.9 xG 45% Over 2.5 Instituto Boca Juniors Argentina Liga Profesional 1.2–1.1 xG 41% Over 2.5

Saturday 10 October 90 matches

Lexington Tulsa Roughnecks USL Championship 2.0–1.0 xG 56% Over 2.5 Unión Santa Fe Defensa y Justicia Argentina Liga Profesional Awaiting odds Seoul Jeju United K League 1 1.8–1.0 xG 52% Over 2.5 Cerezo Osaka Yokohama F. Marinos J1 League Awaiting odds Avispa Fukuoka Fagiano Okayama J1 League 1.2–1.4 xG 49% Over 2.5 FC Tokyo Urawa Reds J1 League Awaiting odds Gimcheon Sangmu Anyang K League 1 1.6–1.1 xG 52% Over 2.5 Kyoto Sanga Machida Zelvia J1 League 1.1–1.8 xG 54% Over 2.5 West Bromwich Albion Birmingham City Championship 1.5–1.2 xG 49% Over 2.5 Swansea City Norwich City Championship 1.6–1.2 xG 53% Over 2.5 Charlton Athletic Bristol City Championship Awaiting odds Swindon Town Crewe Alexandra EFL League Two 1.4–1.3 xG 50% Over 2.5 Oldham Athletic Accrington Stanley EFL League Two Awaiting odds Notts County Oxford United EFL League One 1.3–1.3 xG 50% Over 2.5 Plymouth Argyle AFC Wimbledon EFL League One 2.0–0.9 xG 56% Over 2.5 Arsenal Leeds United Premier League 2.0–0.8 xG 53% Over 2.5 Chengdu Rongcheng Tianjin Jinmen Tiger Chinese Super League 1.9–1.0 xG 54% Over 2.5 Shanghai Shenhua Yunnan Yukun Chinese Super League 2.8–1.6 xG 80% Over 2.5 Rayo Vallecano Athletic Club La Liga Awaiting odds AIK Brommapojkarna Allsvenskan Awaiting odds GAIS Sirius Allsvenskan 1.6–1.3 xG 53% Over 2.5 Genoa Fiorentina Serie A 1.2–1.5 xG 50% Over 2.5 FC Union Berlin Elversberg Bundesliga 1.7–1.6 xG 64% Over 2.5 FC Augsburg FC Bayern München Bundesliga 1.2–3.3 xG 81% Over 2.5 FSV Mainz 05 Bayer 04 Leverkusen Bundesliga 1.7–1.7 xG 65% Over 2.5 Paderborn VfB Stuttgart Bundesliga 1.4–2.1 xG 66% Over 2.5 TSG Hoffenheim Hamburger SV Bundesliga Awaiting odds Al Hazm NEOM SC Saudi Pro League Awaiting odds Bodø / Glimt Kristiansund Eliteserien Awaiting odds Derby County Wrexham Championship Awaiting odds Middlesbrough Wolverhampton Wanderers Championship Awaiting odds Preston North End Millwall Championship 1.5–1.5 xG 57% Over 2.5 Bolton Wanderers Stoke City Championship Awaiting odds Sheffield United Lincoln City Championship 1.4–1.2 xG 48% Over 2.5 Watford Burnley Championship Awaiting odds Blackburn Rovers Cardiff City Championship Awaiting odds Fleetwood Town Walsall EFL League Two Awaiting odds Cheltenham Town Salford City EFL League Two 1.3–1.8 xG 58% Over 2.5 Newport County Colchester United EFL League Two 1.5–1.3 xG 53% Over 2.5 Port Vale Grimsby Town EFL League Two 1.4–1.2 xG 47% Over 2.5 Crawley Town Chesterfield EFL League Two 1.2–2.0 xG 61% Over 2.5 York City Northampton Town EFL League Two 2.0–0.8 xG 53% Over 2.5 Tranmere Rovers Rochdale EFL League Two Awaiting odds Shrewsbury Town Exeter City EFL League Two 1.4–1.0 xG 44% Over 2.5 Bristol Rovers Barnet EFL League Two 1.7–1.3 xG 57% Over 2.5 Rotherham United Gillingham EFL League Two 1.7–1.0 xG 50% Over 2.5 Bradford City Leyton Orient EFL League One 1.7–1.0 xG 50% Over 2.5 Stockport County Barnsley EFL League One 2.3–1.2 xG 67% Over 2.5 Mansfield Town Bromley EFL League One 2.0–1.2 xG 60% Over 2.5 Stevenage Wigan Athletic EFL League One 1.5–1.1 xG 48% Over 2.5 Cambridge United Blackpool EFL League One 1.8–1.3 xG 60% Over 2.5 Milton Keynes Dons Reading EFL League One Awaiting odds Leicester City Peterborough United EFL League One 2.1–1.2 xG 64% Over 2.5 Doncaster Rovers Burton Albion EFL League One 1.7–1.0 xG 50% Over 2.5 Huddersfield Town Sheffield Wednesday EFL League One 2.1–1.1 xG 61% Over 2.5 Wycombe Wanderers Luton Town EFL League One 1.6–1.6 xG 61% Over 2.5 Sunderland Brighton & Hove Albion Premier League Awaiting odds Chelsea AFC Bournemouth Premier League 2.0–1.3 xG 63% Over 2.5 Aston Villa Brentford Premier League 1.5–1.6 xG 59% Over 2.5 Ipswich Town Fulham Premier League 1.5–1.5 xG 56% Over 2.5 TPS Jaro Veikkausliiga 1.6–1.1 xG 50% Over 2.5 Deportivo Alavés Atlético de Madrid La Liga 1.1–1.6 xG 51% Over 2.5 Go Ahead Eagles Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie 2.1–1.4 xG 68% Over 2.5 Al Ettifaq Al Khaleej Saudi Pro League Awaiting odds LOSC Lille Le Havre Ligue 1 2.0–1.0 xG 56% Over 2.5 Mjällby Degerfors Allsvenskan Awaiting odds Rosenborg Sandefjord Eliteserien 2.7–1.0 xG 71% Over 2.5 Inter Parma Serie A Awaiting odds Mariehamn Ilves Veikkausliiga 1.3–1.4 xG 50% Over 2.5 FC Barcelona Getafe La Liga Awaiting odds Manchester United Tottenham Hotspur Premier League Awaiting odds RB Leipzig Eintracht Frankfurt Bundesliga 2.4–1.4 xG 73% Over 2.5 Feyenoord AZ Alkmaar Netherlands Eredivisie Awaiting odds Toronto CF Montréal MLS Awaiting odds Fortuna Sittard FC Twente Netherlands Eredivisie Awaiting odds Al Hilal Al Ittihad Saudi Pro League Awaiting odds Chicago Fire New York City MLS Awaiting odds Barracas Central Huracán Argentina Liga Profesional Awaiting odds Monaco Toulouse Ligue 1 2.0–1.1 xG 60% Over 2.5 Paris Saint Germain Le Mans Ligue 1 Awaiting odds Brest Angers SCO Ligue 1 1.6–1.2 xG 55% Over 2.5 Lorient Paris Ligue 1 1.3–1.4 xG 49% Over 2.5 Napoli Frosinone Serie A Awaiting odds Ajax NEC Nijmegen Netherlands Eredivisie Awaiting odds Real Madrid Villarreal La Liga 2.7–1.1 xG 72% Over 2.5 Central Cordoba SdE Estudiantes Argentina Liga Profesional 1.0–1.2 xG 37% Over 2.5 Vasco da Gama Remo Brazil Serie A 2.5–0.7 xG 62% Over 2.5 Sporting JAX Birmingham Legion USL Championship 1.6–2.1 xG 71% Over 2.5 Charleston Battery Louisville City USL Championship 1.8–1.3 xG 58% Over 2.5 Tigre Banfield Argentina Liga Profesional 1.7–0.8 xG 43% Over 2.5

Sunday 11 October 72 matches

Detroit City Rhode Island USL Championship 1.3–1.0 xG 40% Over 2.5 Pittsburgh Riverhounds Hartford Athletic USL Championship 1.3–0.9 xG 36% Over 2.5 Miami FC II Loudoun United USL Championship 1.9–1.3 xG 62% Over 2.5 Indy Eleven Tampa Bay Rowdies USL Championship 1.1–1.5 xG 47% Over 2.5 Inter Miami DC United MLS 2.4–1.2 xG 69% Over 2.5 Philadelphia Union Real Salt Lake MLS Awaiting odds Charlotte Dallas MLS Awaiting odds New York RB San Diego MLS Awaiting odds New England Seattle Sounders MLS 2.0–1.2 xG 60% Over 2.5 Atlanta United Cincinnati MLS 1.9–1.5 xG 65% Over 2.5 Orlando City Columbus Crew MLS 1.9–1.3 xG 62% Over 2.5 São Paulo Vitória Brazil Serie A Awaiting odds River Plate Estudiantes de Río Cuarto Argentina Liga Profesional 2.4–0.4 xG 52% Over 2.5 Minnesota United Houston Dynamo MLS Awaiting odds Austin Nashville SC MLS 1.2–1.5 xG 49% Over 2.5 Sporting KC Portland Timbers MLS 1.8–1.5 xG 63% Over 2.5 New Mexico United Monterey Bay USL Championship 2.2–1.1 xG 65% Over 2.5 El Paso Locomotive Orange County USL Championship 2.1–1.0 xG 59% Over 2.5 Colorado Rapids SJ Earthquakes MLS Awaiting odds Phoenix Rising Las Vegas Lights USL Championship 1.8–1.2 xG 59% Over 2.5 Sacramento Republic Colorado Springs USL Championship 1.7–0.9 xG 47% Over 2.5 Oakland Roots San Antonio USL Championship 1.4–1.1 xG 45% Over 2.5 Los Angeles FC Vancouver Whitecaps MLS 1.6–1.4 xG 58% Over 2.5 Gwangju Ulsan HD K League 1 1.0–1.8 xG 54% Over 2.5 JEF United V-Varen Nagasaki J1 League Awaiting odds Mito Hollyhock Shimizu S-Pulse J1 League 1.4–1.3 xG 49% Over 2.5 Tokyo Verdy Sanfrecce Hiroshima J1 League 0.8–2.0 xG 54% Over 2.5 Kawasaki Frontale Nagoya Grampus J1 League 2.1–1.2 xG 63% Over 2.5 Qingdao West Coast Dalian Yingbo Chinese Super League 1.4–1.2 xG 47% Over 2.5 FC Utrecht Willem II Netherlands Eredivisie Awaiting odds Como Roma Serie A 1.6–1.6 xG 61% Over 2.5 Southampton Portsmouth Championship 1.9–1.0 xG 56% Over 2.5 Chongqing Tonglianglong FC Shandong Taishan Chinese Super League 1.5–1.4 xG 55% Over 2.5 Liaoning Tieren FC Wuhan Three Towns Chinese Super League 1.8–1.7 xG 66% Over 2.5 Hammarby Djurgården Allsvenskan Awaiting odds Elche Celta de Vigo La Liga 1.2–1.3 xG 44% Over 2.5 Inter Turku KuPS Veikkausliiga Awaiting odds Fredrikstad Tromsø Eliteserien Awaiting odds PEC Zwolle SC Cambuur Netherlands Eredivisie 1.7–1.5 xG 62% Over 2.5 Telstar ADO Den Haag Netherlands Eredivisie 1.7–1.5 xG 60% Over 2.5 Nice Strasbourg Ligue 1 Awaiting odds Hull City Everton Premier League Awaiting odds Crystal Palace Nottingham Forest Premier League 1.3–1.4 xG 49% Over 2.5 Lazio Monza Serie A Awaiting odds Lecce Bologna Serie A 1.0–1.4 xG 45% Over 2.5 FC Köln Borussia Mönchengladbach Bundesliga Awaiting odds Al-Fayha Al Riyadh Saudi Pro League 1.5–1.3 xG 53% Over 2.5 Real Sociedad Deportivo A Coruña La Liga 1.6–1.1 xG 50% Over 2.5 Häcken Örgryte Allsvenskan 2.5–0.9 xG 66% Over 2.5 Excelsior FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie Awaiting odds Aalesund Sarpsborg 08 Eliteserien Awaiting odds Start HamKam Eliteserien 1.9–1.2 xG 59% Over 2.5 Rennes Auxerre Ligue 1 Awaiting odds Abha Al Faisaly Saudi Pro League 1.4–1.1 xG 47% Over 2.5 Liverpool Manchester City Premier League Awaiting odds SC Freiburg Schalke 04 Bundesliga 2.1–1.1 xG 63% Over 2.5 Sassuolo AC Milan Serie A 1.2–1.7 xG 55% Over 2.5 Real Betis Osasuna La Liga Awaiting odds Lillestrøm Molde Eliteserien 1.8–2.1 xG 74% Over 2.5 San Lorenzo Deportivo Riestra Argentina Liga Profesional 1.1–0.9 xG 30% Over 2.5 Al Shabab Al Taawoun Saudi Pro League 1.7–1.5 xG 61% Over 2.5 Troyes Olympique Marseille Ligue 1 1.4–1.8 xG 61% Over 2.5 Cagliari Juventus Serie A Awaiting odds Atlético Mineiro Santos Brazil Serie A 1.6–1.1 xG 49% Over 2.5 Racing Santander Valencia La Liga 1.7–1.3 xG 58% Over 2.5 Rosario Central Independiente Rivadavia Argentina Liga Profesional 1.5–0.9 xG 42% Over 2.5 Platense Argentinos Juniors Argentina Liga Profesional 1.0–1.0 xG 33% Over 2.5 Grêmio Internacional Brazil Serie A 1.5–1.1 xG 47% Over 2.5 Palmeiras Corinthians Brazil Serie A 1.9–0.7 xG 49% Over 2.5 Flamengo Fluminense Brazil Serie A Awaiting odds Racing Club Belgrano Argentina Liga Profesional Awaiting odds Bahia Mirassol Brazil Serie A Awaiting odds

Monday 12 October 15 matches

Tuesday 13 October 1 match

How the simulator works

Anchored to the sharpest market

Each match starts from the prices at Betfair Exchange and Pinnacle, where the sharpest money in football sets the line.

Blended with team form

Recent attack and defence ratings, xG, home advantage, rest days and the referee are layered on top, weighted by how much evidence there is.

Played 100,000 times

A Dixon-Coles model plays the match minute by minute, with goals, corners and cards, then counts every result, score and goal line.

Football simulation API

Put this simulation in your own models

Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.

GET /api/predictions/generate/420493597
  ?v=2
  &detail=standard
  &include=value,corners,cards

# 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves,
# corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown

Match simulator FAQs

What is a football match simulator?

A match simulator plays a game thousands of times using a statistical model of both teams, then counts what happened. Our engine plays every match 100,000 times, so a 62% home win means the home side won about 62,000 of those runs. It turns a hunch into a probability for every result, score and goal line.

How are the simulations calculated?

Each match starts from the sharpest betting market available, usually Betfair Exchange or Pinnacle. Our v2 engine blends that with each team's recent attack, defence and xG numbers, adjusts for home advantage, rest, injuries and weather when they are known, and uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 are realistic. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.

Are the simulations free?

Yes. Win, draw and loss chances, expected goals, the most likely scores, goal lines, both teams to score and a replay of a simulated match are free for every fixture. A free account unlocks every scoreline, half-time markets and unlimited replays. Pro adds corners, cards, goal timing, handicaps and value bets where the simulation disagrees with the bookmakers.

Why run 100,000 simulations?

Randomness. Run a match 100 times and a 20% outcome can come up 14 or 26 times by luck. At 100,000 runs the numbers settle to within a few tenths of a percent, so differences between markets are real rather than noise.

How often are the simulations updated?

Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so they follow team news and price moves. After kick-off the last pre-match run stays on the page so you can see how it compared with the result.

Can I get the simulations through an API?

Yes. Every number here, plus corners, cards, timing, market comparison and the model breakdown, is available from /predictions/generate in the OddAlerts API with the Advanced plan, or a 48-hour API Day Pass.