Win, draw and away chances, both teams to score, goals and the likeliest score for every match this week. Every prediction is checked against the final score, in public.
12,459 finished matches graded over the last 30 days. See the full record
Abahani are clear favourites at 70%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 60%, likeliest score 0-2.
Rahmatgonj MFS are clear favourites at 65%. Over 2.5 at 60%, likeliest score 0-1.
Sderot shade it at 46%. Both teams to score at 59%, likeliest score 1-1.
Hapoel Hadera shade it at 41%. Over 2.5 at 48%, likeliest score 1-1.
Ironi Beit Shemesh shade it at 47%. Both teams to score at 59%, likeliest score 1-1.
MS Dimona shade it at 42%. Over 2.5 at 54%, likeliest score 1-1.
Shimshon Tel Aviv are clear favourites at 65%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 63%, likeliest score 2-1.
Holon Yermiyahu shade it at 45%. Over 2.5 at 48%, likeliest score 1-1.
Brisbane Roar shade it at 45%. Over 2.5 at 52%, likeliest score 1-1.
Chonburi Sports School W shade it at 47%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 72%, likeliest score 2-1.
Almaz-Antey U19 shade it at 59%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 77%, likeliest score 2-1.
Akademiya Konoplev U20 shade it at 52%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 71%, likeliest score 1-2.
Rostov U19 shade it at 45%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 63%, likeliest score 1-1.
Spartak Moskva U19 shade it at 60%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 68%, likeliest score 2-1.
Lokomotiv Moskva U19 are clear favourites at 84%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 73%, likeliest score 3-0.
Zenit U19 are clear favourites at 75%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 70%, likeliest score 0-2.
CSKA Moscow U19 are clear favourites at 60%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 67%, likeliest score 2-1.
Krasnodar U19 shade it at 53%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 71%, likeliest score 1-2.
Yarud Mariupol' shade it at 43%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 60%, likeliest score 1-1.
Dynamo Kyiv are clear favourites at 76%. Over 2.5 at 58%, likeliest score 2-0.
Polissya Zhytomyr are clear favourites at 81%. Over 2.5 at 56%, likeliest score 2-0.
Kolos Kovalivka shade it at 50%. Over 2.5 at 46%, likeliest score 0-1.
Beitar Nahariya shade it at 55%. Over 2.5 at 52%, likeliest score 1-1.
Hapoel Ironi Karmiel shade it at 50%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-1.
Maccabi Neve Sha'anan shade it at 48%. Over 2.5 at 49%, likeliest score 1-1.
Ironi Nesher shade it at 47%. Over 2.5 at 45%, likeliest score 0-1.
Hapoel Bnei Musmus shade it at 43%. Over 2.5 at 52%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Hoàng Anh Gia Lai 37%, Sông Lam Nghệ An 37%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-1.
Thể Công - Viettel shade it at 40%. Over 2.5 at 44%, likeliest score 1-1.
Pelister U19 are clear favourites at 84%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 91%, likeliest score 3-1.
Kickstart FC shade it at 50%. Over 2.5 at 49%, likeliest score 1-1.
Guria are clear favourites at 77%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 73%, likeliest score 0-2.
Margveti shade it at 56%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 68%, likeliest score 2-1.
Didube 2014 shade it at 46%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 62%, likeliest score 2-1.
Irao shade it at 53%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 65%, likeliest score 2-1.
Norchi Dinamo shade it at 43%. Both teams to score at 59%, likeliest score 1-1.
Saturn Ramenskoye shade it at 44%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Araz 32%, Qabala 39%. Over 2.5 at 43%, likeliest score 1-1.
Zira shade it at 54%. Over 2.5 at 46%, likeliest score 1-0.
Simba are clear favourites at 84%. Over 2.5 at 54%, likeliest score 2-0.
Azam are clear favourites at 76%. Over 2.5 at 47%, likeliest score 1-0.
Polisi Tanzania shade it at 55%. Over 2.5 at 44%, likeliest score 1-0.
Too close to call: Al Arabi SC 39%, Al Nejmeh 36%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-1.
Al Ansar shade it at 47%. Over 2.5 at 56%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Fortis 36%, Regar-TadAZ 38%. Over 2.5 at 52%, likeliest score 1-1.
Istiqlol Dushanbe shade it at 44%. Over 2.5 at 50%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Al-Ittihad Aleppo 40%, Paro FC 36%. Both teams to score at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Goa 37%, Al Qadsia 39%. Both teams to score at 60%, likeliest score 1-1.
Ipswich Town U21 shade it at 54%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 75%, likeliest score 2-1.
Too close to call: Fulham U21 42%, Brighton U21 35%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 67%, likeliest score 1-1.
Manchester City U21 are clear favourites at 85%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 81%, likeliest score 3-0.
Too close to call: Everton U21 39%, Wolves U21 39%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 66%, likeliest score 1-1.
West Ham United U21 shade it at 44%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 66%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Quy Nhơn United 38%, Lam Dong 33%. Over 2.5 at 43%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Van 39%, Ararat 33%. Over 2.5 at 50%, likeliest score 1-1.
Pyunik are clear favourites at 82%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 2-0.
Bylis Ballsh shade it at 41%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 62%, likeliest score 1-1.
Flamurtari are clear favourites at 65%. Over 2.5 at 49%, likeliest score 1-0.
East Bengal are clear favourites at 62%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 60%, likeliest score 1-2.
Sileks are clear favourites at 65%. Over 2.5 at 51%, likeliest score 1-0.
Bačka Topola shade it at 57%. Both teams to score at 58%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Dubocica 36%, Semendrija 1924 37%. Over 2.5 at 47%, likeliest score 1-1.
Alanyaspor U19 shade it at 47%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 63%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Olimpia Râmnicu Sărat 37%, Urban Titu 40%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 62%, likeliest score 1-1.
FCSB II shade it at 55%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 67%, likeliest score 2-1.
Sănătatea Cluj shade it at 59%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-0.
Too close to call: Metalurgistul Cugir 39%, Universitatea Alba Iulia 37%. Over 2.5 at 57%, likeliest score 1-1.
Maccabi B. Jadeidi-Makr shade it at 55%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 64%, likeliest score 2-1.
Al Gottah shade it at 46%. Over 2.5 at 51%, likeliest score 1-1.
Al-Ain shade it at 41%. Over 2.5 at 52%, likeliest score 1-1.
Wajj shade it at 52%. Both teams to score at 58%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Al Sahel 40%, Al-Rayyan 34%. Over 2.5 at 51%, likeliest score 1-1.
Taliya shade it at 45%. Over 2.5 at 46%, likeliest score 1-1.
Tishreen shade it at 44%. Over 2.5 at 43%, likeliest score 1-1.
Johor Darul Ta'zim are clear favourites at 84%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 77%, likeliest score 0-3.
Śląsk Wrocław II shade it at 43%. Both teams to score at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
Zawisza Bydgoszcz are clear favourites at 62%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 64%, likeliest score 2-1.
Charlton Athletic U21 shade it at 47%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 69%, likeliest score 2-1.
Haras El Hodood shade it at 46%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 64%, likeliest score 1-0.
Too close to call: Ismaily 35%, La Viena FC 33%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 66%, likeliest score 0-0.
Too close to call: El Entag El Harby 34%, El Mansura 32%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 70%, likeliest score 0-0.
Tersana shade it at 58%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 0-1.
Too close to call: Masar 33%, Pharco 37%. Over 2.5 at 40%, likeliest score 1-1.
The draw is the single likeliest result at 36%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 72%, likeliest score 0-0.
Gol Gohar shade it at 42%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 73%, likeliest score 1-0.
Esteghlal are clear favourites at 65%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 64%, likeliest score 0-1.
Belenense U20 shade it at 55%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 70%, likeliest score 1-2.
Al-Shabab Club shade it at 55%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-0.
Al-Musannah shade it at 51%. Over 2.5 at 47%, likeliest score 1-0.
Al Seeb are clear favourites at 69%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 60%, likeliest score 2-0.
Al-Nahda are clear favourites at 60%. Over 2.5 at 44%, likeliest score 0-1.
Al Wahda are clear favourites at 66%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 0-2.
Al Nasr are clear favourites at 61%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 2-1.
Ekhaya shade it at 49%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 67%, likeliest score 1-0.
CSKA Sofia II shade it at 57%. Over 2.5 at 47%, likeliest score 1-0.
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas shade it at 59%. Over 2.5 at 48%, likeliest score 1-0.
Vihren shade it at 55%. Over 2.5 at 50%, likeliest score 1-0.
Too close to call: Beroe 36%, Rilski Sportist 36%. Over 2.5 at 46%, likeliest score 1-1.
Beroe's fortress: Home win value
Our model flags a -23.14% edge on the home win market. Beroe have won 5 of their 6 home games (83% home win rate), suffered no home defeats and keep clean sheets in 83% of matches. They concede just 0.17 goals per home game and average 1.5 goals scored, reinforcing a strong chance to win despite the odds.
Hebar 1918 shade it at 52%. Over 2.5 at 58%, likeliest score 1-1.
Etar shade it at 46%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 62%, likeliest score 1-1.
Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa shade it at 59%. Over 2.5 at 50%, likeliest score 1-0.
Dečić shade it at 41%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 65%, likeliest score 0-1.
Too close to call: Jezero 34%, Petrovac 34%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 63%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Hapoel Kfar Saba 36%, Hapoel Afula 38%. Both teams to score at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
Hapoel Rishon LeZion shade it at 56%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
Hapoel Ra'anana shade it at 57%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 0-1.
Ashdod are clear favourites at 66%. Over 2.5 at 56%, likeliest score 0-1.
Maccabi Bnei Raina shade it at 60%. Over 2.5 at 49%, likeliest score 0-1.
Too close to call: Maccabi Herzliya 39%, Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 36%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-1.
Bnei Yehuda shade it at 47%. Over 2.5 at 55%, likeliest score 1-1.
Ironi Kiryat Gat shade it at 47%. Both teams to score at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
Kustošija shade it at 41%. Over 2.5 at 48%, likeliest score 1-1.
Sesvete shade it at 53%. Over 2.5 at 42%, likeliest score 1-0.
Too close to call: Uljanik 39%, Uskok Klis 37%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 65%, likeliest score 1-1.
Atalanta U20 shade it at 53%. Over 2.5 at 58%, likeliest score 1-1.
Sassuolo U20 shade it at 42%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
TSC Bačka Topola W are clear favourites at 63%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 62%, likeliest score 2-1.
Bistrica shade it at 56%. Over 2.5 at 59%, likeliest score 2-1.
Triglav shade it at 58%. Over 2.5 at 56%, likeliest score 1-0.
Too close to call: Tabor Sežana 34%, Koper 39%. Over 2.5 at 51%, likeliest score 1-1.
Brežice shade it at 49%. Over 2.5 at 58%, likeliest score 1-1.
Talant shade it at 45%. Over 2.5 at 52%, likeliest score 1-1.
Al Nassr are clear favourites at 67%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 64%, likeliest score 1-2.
Too close to call: Al Ittihad 42%, Al Diraiyah FC 37%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 64%, likeliest score 1-1.
Al Hilal shade it at 46%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-1.
Under 2.5 Goals: Strong defensive edge
Our model shows a +12.86% value edge for Under 2.5 goals (model rating 46.87% vs implied 34.01%). Al Hilal have conceded just 0.25 goals per away match this season and only 3 goals in their last five games, while Al‑Qadsiah concede 1.60 at home. The tight away defence and the market’s undervaluation make the under‑2.5 line attractive.
Midlands Wand. shade it at 43%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 1-0.
Casric Stars shade it at 53%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 65%, likeliest score 1-0.
Cape Town City shade it at 51%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 62%, likeliest score 0-1.
CA Bizertin shade it at 47%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 63%, likeliest score 1-0.
JS Omrane shade it at 50%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 64%, likeliest score 1-0.
Stade Tunisien shade it at 46%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 74%, likeliest score 0-1.
AS Marsa shade it at 37%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 70%, likeliest score 0-0.
Buxoro shade it at 41%. Over 2.5 at 47%, likeliest score 1-1.
Pakhtakor shade it at 50%. Over 2.5 at 56%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Spaeri 40%, Gagra 34%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Rustavi 38%, Dinamo Tbilisi 35%. Over 2.5 at 47%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Dinamo Minsk II 39%, FC Ostrovets 37%. Both teams to score at 58%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Sporting Braga U23 38%, Benfica U23 38%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
Al Shorta shade it at 39%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 60%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Al Karkh 39%, Al Mosul 32%. Over 2.5 at 44%, likeliest score 1-1.
Duhok are clear favourites at 60%. Over 2.5 at 45%, likeliest score 1-0.
Al Jolan SC shade it at 39%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
Al Hilal Omdurman are clear favourites at 62%. Over 2.5 at 45%, likeliest score 1-0.
APR shade it at 44%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 63%, likeliest score 1-0.
Al Ramtha shade it at 45%. Over 2.5 at 47%, likeliest score 1-1.
Al Faysali are clear favourites at 73%. Over 2.5 at 55%, likeliest score 0-2.
JS El Biar shade it at 47%. Over 2.5 at 41%, likeliest score 1-0.
Olympique Akbou shade it at 41%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 65%, likeliest score 1-0.
Too close to call: Minsk 34%, Baranovichi 41%. Over 2.5 at 47%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Al Shamal SC 40%, Qatar SC 37%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 62%, likeliest score 1-1.
Al Rayyan are clear favourites at 73%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 0-2.
Petro de Luanda are clear favourites at 70%. Over 2.5 at 43%, likeliest score 1-0.
Mamelodi Sundowns are clear favourites at 71%. Over 2.5 at 56%, likeliest score 2-0.
Orlando Pirates are clear favourites at 83%. Over 2.5 at 56%, likeliest score 2-0.
MC Alger are clear favourites at 68%. Over 2.5 at 54%, likeliest score 2-0.
Muharraq shade it at 49%. Over 2.5 at 47%, likeliest score 1-1.
Al Khalidiyah shade it at 49%. Over 2.5 at 55%, likeliest score 1-1.
Kazma shade it at 56%. Over 2.5 at 55%, likeliest score 1-0.
Al Kuwait are clear favourites at 75%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 64%, likeliest score 0-2.
Torpedo Moskva shade it at 41%. Over 2.5 at 42%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Necaxa U21 40%, Juárez U21 33%. Over 2.5 at 48%, likeliest score 1-1.
Botoşani shade it at 57%. Over 2.5 at 56%, likeliest score 1-0.
Corvinul Hunedoara shade it at 48%. Over 2.5 at 50%, likeliest score 1-1.
Zagłębie Sosnowiec are clear favourites at 62%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 64%, likeliest score 2-1.
Ittihad Al Ramtha shade it at 54%. Over 2.5 at 47%, likeliest score 1-0.
Al Ahli are clear favourites at 73%. Over 2.5 at 58%, likeliest score 0-2.
Al Ahed are clear favourites at 62%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-0.
Karviná shade it at 51%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 63%, likeliest score 1-2.
Too close to call: Táborsko 38%, Třinec 37%. Over 2.5 at 56%, likeliest score 1-1.
Vysočina Jihlava shade it at 54%. Both teams to score at 58%, likeliest score 2-1.
Kladno shade it at 42%. Both teams to score at 60%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Opava 38%, Banik Ostrava B 37%. Both teams to score at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
BTTS Yes offers hidden value
Our model shows a -5.69% value edge for Both Teams to Score – the market odds imply a 66.67% chance while the model rates it at 60.98%. Both clubs regularly produce BTTS: Opava’s home matches feature BTTS in 83% of games and they recorded BTTS in all five of their recent fixtures; Banik Ostrava B deliver BTTS in 80% of away games and logged BTTS in four of their last five. The last four head‑to‑head meetings had zero BTTS, suggesting the market may be under‑pricing this outcome.
Honka are clear favourites at 71%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 72%, likeliest score 2-1.
Tartu Welco shade it at 59%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 79%, likeliest score 2-1.
Tammeka shade it at 56%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 65%, likeliest score 2-1.
Nõmme United shade it at 47%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 72%, likeliest score 2-1.
Haugesund W are clear favourites at 76%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 74%, likeliest score 1-2.
Too close to call: CSKA 1948 Sofia 34%, Botev Plovdiv 39%. Over 2.5 at 50%, likeliest score 1-1.
Zemun shade it at 44%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 1-0.
Zemun home win offers +7.6% value
Our model rates a Zemun victory at 44.01% versus the implied 36.36% from the 2.75 odds, creating a +7.65% edge. Zemun have already taken 2 wins and 3 draws in the last five meetings, while Mačva have none. Even though Zemun have yet to win at home this season (0% home win rate) their head‑to‑head record favours them.
Too close to call: IMT Novi Beograd 37%, Železničar Pančevo 34%. Over 2.5 at 41%, likeliest score 1-1.
Under 2.5 Goals – +5% value edge
Our model shows a +5.31% edge for Under 2.5 goals versus the current odds. The home side has only 20% of its home games exceeding 2.5 goals and averages 1.40 goals per home match. The visitors score just 1.25 goals per away game and their away over‑2.5 rate sits at 50%. Together these low‑scoring indicators back the under‑2.5 bet.
Radnički Kragujevac shade it at 59%. Over 2.5 at 49%, likeliest score 1-0.
Radnički Niš shade it at 41%. Over 2.5 at 42%, likeliest score 1-1.
Motor Lublin shade it at 47%. Over 2.5 at 54%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Widzew Lodz 35%, Górnik Zabrze 37%. Over 2.5 at 51%, likeliest score 1-1.
BTTS likely despite modest odds
Our model rates Both Teams to Score at 56% with odds implying 58%, a small negative edge. The home side produced BTTS in 4 of its last 5 matches (80%) and the visitors in 2 of 5 (40%). Head‑to‑head meetings featured BTTS in 2 of 5 games (40%). The convergence of strong home BTTS frequency and model rating suggests a solid chance of both sides scoring.
Too close to call: Hobro 37%, Vendsyssel 37%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-1.
Home win odds overvalued (-6.3%)
Our model shows a -6.27% value edge for a Hobro win, meaning the current odds (2.32) overprice this outcome. Hobro have won none of their last five matches and manage a first‑half win in only 17% of home games, while Vendsyssel win 33% of first halves away. These timing and form stats reinforce the lack of value in backing Hobro.
Hvidovre shade it at 47%. Both teams to score at 59%, likeliest score 1-1.
Polonia Warszawa shade it at 51%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 60%, likeliest score 2-1.
SK Pama shade it at 51%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 66%, likeliest score 1-1.
Eberau shade it at 44%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 68%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Sturm Graz W 42%, LASK W 38%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 65%, likeliest score 1-1.
Gerasdorf Stammersdorf shade it at 49%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 63%, likeliest score 1-1.
Pachuca CF III are clear favourites at 93%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 85%, likeliest score 3-0.
Sport Street Soccer are clear favourites at 62%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 87%, likeliest score 2-2.
Corsarios de Campeche shade it at 56%. Over 2.5 at 52%, likeliest score 1-0.
Too close to call: Pioneros Junior 39%, Boston Cancún 34%. Over 2.5 at 51%, likeliest score 1-1.
Estudiantes Querétaro are clear favourites at 69%. Over 2.5 at 57%, likeliest score 2-0.
Lechuzas UPGCH are clear favourites at 87%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 81%, likeliest score 3-0.
Gallos Viejos shade it at 46%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 69%, likeliest score 1-1.
Ethnikos Achna are clear favourites at 64%. Over 2.5 at 59%, likeliest score 0-1.
Kaizer Chiefs shade it at 50%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 60%, likeliest score 1-0.
Raja Casablanca are clear favourites at 72%. Over 2.5 at 57%, likeliest score 2-0.
Too close to call: Sportowa Czwórka Radom W 41%, Rekord Bielsko-Biala W 38%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 62%, likeliest score 1-1.
Gjilani shade it at 50%. Over 2.5 at 55%, likeliest score 1-1.
Melita are clear favourites at 66%. Over 2.5 at 58%, likeliest score 0-2.
St. Andrews shade it at 55%. Over 2.5 at 54%, likeliest score 1-1.
Bhantal shade it at 45%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 67%, likeliest score 1-0.
Garliava shade it at 45%. Over 2.5 at 55%, likeliest score 1-1.
Erlbach are clear favourites at 74%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 64%, likeliest score 2-0.
1860 Rosenheim shade it at 47%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 63%, likeliest score 1-1.
1860 München II shade it at 47%. Over 2.5 at 58%, likeliest score 1-1.
1880 Wasserburg shade it at 52%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 60%, likeliest score 1-1.
Sportfreunde Schwaig shade it at 54%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 67%, likeliest score 1-1.
Akhmat Grozny shade it at 49%. Over 2.5 at 44%, likeliest score 1-0.
Austria Wien II shade it at 50%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 63%, likeliest score 1-1.
St. Pölten are clear favourites at 66%. Over 2.5 at 56%, likeliest score 0-1.
Amstetten shade it at 51%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 64%, likeliest score 2-1.
Voitsberg shade it at 53%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 63%, likeliest score 1-1.
First Vienna shade it at 43%. Both teams to score at 58%, likeliest score 1-1.
Blau-Weiß Linz shade it at 52%. Over 2.5 at 55%, likeliest score 1-1.
Frem shade it at 44%. Both teams to score at 59%, likeliest score 1-1.
Brønshøj shade it at 54%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 65%, likeliest score 1-2.
Wislanie Jaskowice shade it at 51%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 62%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: VfL Bochum 1848 40%, VfL Wolfsburg 36%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
Darmstadt 98 shade it at 47%. Over 2.5 at 51%, likeliest score 1-1.
Strani are clear favourites at 81%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 76%, likeliest score 0-3.
Value Bet: Home Win at 34.0 odds
Our model puts Baťov’s chance to win at 8.38%, while the market odds (34.0) imply only 2.94%, giving a +5.44% value edge. Baťov have failed to win any of their 11 matches this season (0% win rate overall and at home) and sit on zero points, which explains the extreme odds. The +5.44% edge signals a rare upside despite their poor form.
Vilnius FA are clear favourites at 87%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 85%, likeliest score 3-0.
FC Bayern München W are clear favourites at 78%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 70%, likeliest score 0-2.
Al Ittihad W shade it at 46%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 82%, likeliest score 1-2.
B36 II shade it at 48%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 79%, likeliest score 1-2.
Hoyvik shade it at 49%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 78%, likeliest score 1-2.
Víkingur II shade it at 58%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 81%, likeliest score 1-3.
Häcken W are clear favourites at 89%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 75%, likeliest score 0-3.
Varhaug shade it at 45%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 80%, likeliest score 2-1.
Tvååker shade it at 47%. Both teams to score at 60%, likeliest score 1-1.
Oddevold are clear favourites at 71%. Over 2.5 at 58%, likeliest score 1-0.
Västerås SK shade it at 53%. Over 2.5 at 54%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Elfsborg 41%, Malmö FF 35%. Both teams to score at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
Viktoria Aschaffenburg shade it at 43%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
Ammerthal shade it at 43%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 63%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Neudrossenfeld 37%, Bayern Hof 41%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 67%, likeliest score 1-1.
Necaxa U19 shade it at 56%. Over 2.5 at 57%, likeliest score 1-1.
Memmingen shade it at 48%. Over 2.5 at 50%, likeliest score 1-1.
Buchbach shade it at 60%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 67%, likeliest score 2-1.
Schweinfurt are clear favourites at 70%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 71%, likeliest score 2-1.
Brøndby IF shade it at 46%. Both teams to score at 58%, likeliest score 1-1.
BFC Preussen shade it at 51%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 64%, likeliest score 1-2.
Altglienicke shade it at 47%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 62%, likeliest score 1-1.
Carl Zeiss Jena are clear favourites at 65%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 63%, likeliest score 2-0.
Victoria Hamburg are clear favourites at 69%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 76%, likeliest score 1-2.
Paloma are clear favourites at 74%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 83%, likeliest score 1-3.
ETSV Hamburg shade it at 49%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 80%, likeliest score 2-1.
Lendorf shade it at 56%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 73%, likeliest score 2-1.
Draw offers hidden value
Our model rates a draw at 18.38% with odds of 4.1, translating to an implied 24.39% chance. The -6.01% value indication means the market overprices a draw. Both sides have struggled to find the net recently – Lendorf managed only one draw in its last five matches and Launsdorf none – reinforcing the upside.
FC Marchfeld Donauauen are clear favourites at 63%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 62%, likeliest score 2-1.
Parndorf shade it at 44%. Both teams to score at 60%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: SV Horn 38%, Wiener Sport-Club 38%. Both teams to score at 59%, likeliest score 1-1.
Traiskirchen shade it at 50%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 68%, likeliest score 2-1.
Oberwart are clear favourites at 63%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 70%, likeliest score 2-1.
Leobendorf shade it at 45%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 60%, likeliest score 1-1.
FA 2000 shade it at 48%. Over 2.5 at 55%, likeliest score 1-1.
Roskilde shade it at 56%. Over 2.5 at 57%, likeliest score 1-1.
Dornbirn are clear favourites at 79%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 78%, likeliest score 3-0.
Too close to call: Kufstein 37%, SVG Reichenau 41%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 64%, likeliest score 1-1.
Tillmitsch shade it at 49%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 76%, likeliest score 2-1.
Deutschlandsberger SC shade it at 53%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 68%, likeliest score 1-2.
Karlovy Vary shade it at 54%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 76%, likeliest score 1-2.
Home win offers modest value
Our model shows a +5.95% edge for a home victory (27% model rating versus a 21% implied probability). The home side has only a 27% overall win rate and 33% at home, with just one win in the last five matches and a two‑game losing streak. The combination of a modest rating and the team’s poor recent form still yields a small value advantage.
Salzburger AK are clear favourites at 62%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 68%, likeliest score 2-1.
Rot-Weiss Essen shade it at 54%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 62%, likeliest score 2-1.
Over 2.5 goals overpriced ~8%
Our model shows the Over 2.5 goals market is about ‑8 % overpriced (value ‑7.79 %). Both clubs are goal‑rich: Rot‑Weiss Essen’s games go over 2.5 goals in 20 % of home matches and Jahn Regensburg in 100 % of away matches, while overall they exceed 2.5 goals in 40 % and 80 % of games respectively. The last four head‑to‑head meetings averaged 3.25 goals and three of them went over 2.5, underscoring the high‑scoring trend.
Too close to call: Kickers Offenbach 42%, SGV Freiberg 36%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 71%, likeliest score 1-1.
Freiburg II shade it at 45%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 66%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Boluspor 37%, Vanspor FK 38%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-1.
Unia Tarnów are clear favourites at 68%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 78%, likeliest score 2-1.
Too close to call: SKS Oskar Przysucha 41%, Makowianka Maków Mazowiecki 38%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 74%, likeliest score 2-1.
Goal feast expected – Over 2.5 goals
Our model shows a +10.28% edge for Over 2.5 goals (rating 73.97% vs implied 63.69%). Both sides are prolific: the home side has seen every one of its six home matches go over 2.5 goals (100%) and scores 2.5 goals per game at home; the visitors exceed 2.5 goals in 60% of their away fixtures and average 2.20 goals away. The combined scoring trends strongly support a high‑scoring game.
Błonianka Błonie shade it at 44%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 68%, likeliest score 1-2.
Gnas shade it at 51%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 63%, likeliest score 1-1.
Fehring shade it at 47%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 69%, likeliest score 2-1.
Rohrbach an der Lafnitz shade it at 57%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 79%, likeliest score 1-2.
Wildon shade it at 49%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 78%, likeliest score 1-2.
Alanyaspor shade it at 48%. Over 2.5 at 46%, likeliest score 1-1.
Spartak Myjava are clear favourites at 68%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 69%, likeliest score 2-1.
Real Unión Club shade it at 52%. Over 2.5 at 45%, likeliest score 1-1.
Vipers are clear favourites at 69%. Over 2.5 at 49%, likeliest score 1-0.
Zagorec shade it at 49%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 64%, likeliest score 1-1.
Accra Hearts of Oak are clear favourites at 76%. Over 2.5 at 43%, likeliest score 1-0.
Hammarby Talang are clear favourites at 67%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 66%, likeliest score 1-2.
FC Gütersloh are clear favourites at 61%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 66%, likeliest score 1-1.
Rheindorf Altach shade it at 52%. Over 2.5 at 59%, likeliest score 1-1.
Ruch Radzionkow are clear favourites at 64%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 69%, likeliest score 2-1.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy are clear favourites at 61%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 64%, likeliest score 2-1.
Over 2.5 goals undervalued – +5.8% edge
Our model rates the Over 2.5‑goals market at 63.69% versus an implied 69.44%, creating a –5.75% value gap. The home side has hit the over‑2.5 mark in 50% of its home games, while the visitors do it in 80% of away matches. The last five head‑to‑head meetings averaged 2.8 goals and 4 of those 5 games went over 2.5. All signs point to a goal‑rich encounter that the odds underprice.
Too close to call: Wil 42%, Rapperswil-Jona 35%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 65%, likeliest score 1-1.
Winterthur shade it at 52%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 64%, likeliest score 2-1.
Draw offers solid +6% edge
Our model shows a +6.28% value edge on the draw. In the last five meetings, three ended level, and Winterthur has drawn 40% of its home games this season (overall draw rate 30%). These figures line up with the market advantage.
Atletico Madrid W are clear favourites at 69%. Over 2.5 at 56%, likeliest score 2-0.
Chaves shade it at 43%. Over 2.5 at 48%, likeliest score 1-1.
Melgar shade it at 51%. Over 2.5 at 49%, likeliest score 0-1.
Atlético Grau shade it at 59%. Over 2.5 at 49%, likeliest score 1-0.
FC Volendam shade it at 51%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 68%, likeliest score 1-1.
TOP Oss shade it at 49%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 66%, likeliest score 1-1.
Both Teams Likely to Score – Value Edge
Our model shows a -7.73% value edge for Both Teams to Score (Yes) at odds of 1.40. TOP Oss produces BTTS in 80% of its home games and has recorded BTTS in three of its last five matches. Jong Ajax delivers BTTS in 80% of its away fixtures and has hit BTTS twice in its last five outings. The convergence of high BTTS rates for both sides supports a strong chance of both sides finding the net.
Almere City shade it at 52%. Both teams to score at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: De Graafschap 39%, RKC Waalwijk 37%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 65%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: FC Eindhoven 40%, Jong PSV 37%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 66%, likeliest score 1-1.
BTTS Yes looks overpriced
Our model shows a -5.91% value edge for Both Teams to Score at odds 1.40. Both clubs score in the majority of their matches – the home side finds both teams scoring in 64% of games overall and 83% at home, while the visitors hit BTTS in 90% overall and every away match. In the last five head‑to‑head meetings BTTS occurred twice (40%). The combination suggests the market is overpriced.
Too close to call: Vitesse 42%, FC Emmen 35%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 63%, likeliest score 1-1.
NAC Breda shade it at 49%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 66%, likeliest score 2-1.
NAC Breda home win +8.7% value
Our model shows a +8.73% edge for a home victory. NAC Breda have won 4 of their last 5 matches and are unbeaten in 5, with a 60% home win rate this season. Their games feature BTTS in 60% of home fixtures and over 2.5 goals in 60% of home matches, reinforcing the home‑win upside.
FC Den Bosch are clear favourites at 66%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 66%, likeliest score 2-1.
Over 2.5 goals – a goal‑fest awaits
Our model flags a –7.06% value edge for Over 2.5 goals, meaning the odds are tighter than our expected 66.5% chance. Both sides exceed the 2.5‑goal threshold in the majority of their games – Den Bosch hits over 2.5 at home in 67% of matches, MVV does so away in 80%. The last five head‑to‑head meetings averaged 3.8 goals and four of them went over 2.5. All signs point to plenty of goals.
Jong AZ shade it at 54%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 65%, likeliest score 2-1.
Go Ahead Eagles shade it at 59%. Over 2.5 at 57%, likeliest score 1-0.
Too close to call: Sochaux 39%, Annecy 36%. Both teams to score at 58%, likeliest score 1-1.
Nancy shade it at 47%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-1.
Dunkerque shade it at 41%. Over 2.5 at 50%, likeliest score 1-1.
Pau shade it at 57%. Over 2.5 at 50%, likeliest score 1-0.
Too close to call: Clermont 32%, Guingamp 40%. Over 2.5 at 40%, likeliest score 1-1.
Koninklijke Lierse Sportkring shade it at 44%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Royal Francs Borains 40%, Dender 34%. Both teams to score at 59%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Eemdijk 39%, Sportlust '46 39%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 69%, likeliest score 1-1.
Zrinjski are clear favourites at 68%. Over 2.5 at 50%, likeliest score 1-0.
Kortrijk U21 shade it at 43%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 68%, likeliest score 1-1.
Beerschot-Wilrijk U21 are clear favourites at 60%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 71%, likeliest score 1-2.
RAAL La Louvière U21 are clear favourites at 65%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 73%, likeliest score 1-2.
RFC Seraing U21 shade it at 50%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 66%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Huarte 38%, Avance Ezcabarte 33%. Over 2.5 at 43%, likeliest score 1-1.
ÍBV W shade it at 45%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 72%, likeliest score 2-1.
Thróttur Reykjavík W shade it at 48%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 66%, likeliest score 1-1.
Breidablik W shade it at 60%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 83%, likeliest score 2-1.
Carmarthen Town shade it at 51%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 71%, likeliest score 2-1.
Draw appears overpriced (-6.8% edge)
Our model shows a -6.78% value edge for a draw, meaning the odds (3.75) overstate the likelihood. Both sides have a habit of both teams scoring – the home side has seen both teams score in every match this season and in all five recent games, while the visitors have a 60% overall BTTS rate and an 80% rate in their last five. Such high BTTS frequencies usually produce 1‑1 results, yet the model rates draws lower than the market, indicating limited value.
Too close to call: Llanelli Town 36%, Afan Lido 42%. Over 2.5 at 57%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Newport City 36%, Pontypridd Town AFC 41%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 62%, likeliest score 1-1.
Caerau (Ely) are clear favourites at 79%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 74%, likeliest score 2-0.
Cardiff Draconians shade it at 44%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 69%, likeliest score 1-2.
Granada shade it at 44%. Over 2.5 at 43%, likeliest score 1-1.
Empoli shade it at 41%. Over 2.5 at 45%, likeliest score 1-1.
Potenza Calcio shade it at 47%. Over 2.5 at 46%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Casertana 35%, Bari 1908 38%. Over 2.5 at 47%, likeliest score 1-1.
Pineto shade it at 53%. Over 2.5 at 42%, likeliest score 1-0.
Pescara shade it at 44%. Over 2.5 at 47%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Ostia Mare Lidocalcio 34%, Vado 39%. Over 2.5 at 50%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Spouwen-Mopertingen 36%, Thes Sport 42%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 62%, likeliest score 1-1.
VfB Stuttgart shade it at 56%. Over 2.5 at 58%, likeliest score 1-0.
OH Leuven II shade it at 55%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 70%, likeliest score 1-2.
Diksmuide shade it at 54%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 65%, likeliest score 1-2.
Clyde are clear favourites at 72%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 78%, likeliest score 1-2.
Bohemians shade it at 54%. Over 2.5 at 59%, likeliest score 2-1.
Derry City shade it at 47%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
Waterford United shade it at 52%. Both teams to score at 59%, likeliest score 1-1.
St Patrick's shade it at 58%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 0-1.
Shamrock Rovers are clear favourites at 79%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 69%, likeliest score 2-0.
Caernarfon Town shade it at 53%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 64%, likeliest score 2-1.
Trefelin shade it at 50%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 64%, likeliest score 1-1.
The New Saints are clear favourites at 91%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 77%, likeliest score 3-0.
Penybont are clear favourites at 71%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 68%, likeliest score 0-2.
Colwyn Bay shade it at 50%. Over 2.5 at 50%, likeliest score 1-1.
Cambrian & Clydach shade it at 55%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 63%, likeliest score 1-1.
Denbigh Town shade it at 48%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 73%, likeliest score 2-1.
Too close to call: Strabane Athletic 41%, Ballinamallard United 36%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-1.
Newry City AFC shade it at 54%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 60%, likeliest score 1-1.
KV Kortrijk shade it at 44%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-1.
Linfield are clear favourites at 66%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 0-1.
Over 2.5 Goals overpriced
Our model rates the chance of more than 2.5 goals at 52.09% while the market implies 60.24%, creating an -8.15% value gap. Portadown’s matches go over 2.5 goals in only 33% of home games and Linfield in 40% of their away fixtures, both well below the market expectation.
Too close to call: Gateshead 36%, Tamworth 39%. Over 2.5 at 52%, likeliest score 1-1.
Brest shade it at 47%. Over 2.5 at 51%, likeliest score 1-1.
Torino shade it at 43%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-1.
Middlesbrough shade it at 42%. Both teams to score at 59%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Deportivo Alavés 41%, Málaga 33%. Over 2.5 at 54%, likeliest score 1-1.
Europa FC shade it at 53%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 65%, likeliest score 2-1.
Too close to call: Ipswich Town 34%, Nottingham Forest 39%. Over 2.5 at 50%, likeliest score 1-1.
Paris SG W are clear favourites at 63%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 63%, likeliest score 2-1.
Real Zaragoza shade it at 41%. Over 2.5 at 48%, likeliest score 1-1.
Cosmos are clear favourites at 68%. Over 2.5 at 56%, likeliest score 0-2.
Too close to call: Pennarossa 41%, San Giovanni 36%. Over 2.5 at 56%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Tre Penne 38%, Tre Fiori 34%. Over 2.5 at 43%, likeliest score 1-1.
Virtus shade it at 56%. Over 2.5 at 57%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Paços de Ferreira 33%, Leca 41%. Over 2.5 at 51%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Guaireña 38%, Sportivo Carapeguá 36%. Over 2.5 at 49%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Independiente FBC 40%, Paraguarí 34%. Over 2.5 at 51%, likeliest score 1-1.
Vitória Guimarães shade it at 52%. Over 2.5 at 45%, likeliest score 1-0.
Universidad O&M shade it at 52%. Over 2.5 at 52%, likeliest score 1-1.
Guarani U20 shade it at 48%. Over 2.5 at 48%, likeliest score 1-1.
Independiente del Valle shade it at 52%. Over 2.5 at 52%, likeliest score 1-1.
Gimnasia La Plata shade it at 54%. Over 2.5 at 49%, likeliest score 1-0.
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza shade it at 45%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 1-0.
Santa Fe W are clear favourites at 77%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 84%, likeliest score 1-3.
Barra FC shade it at 44%. Over 2.5 at 49%, likeliest score 1-1.
Operário PR shade it at 49%. Over 2.5 at 46%, likeliest score 1-0.
Cruzeiro are clear favourites at 69%. Over 2.5 at 51%, likeliest score 1-0.
Under 2.5 Goals offers +9% value
Our model shows a +9.44% edge for Under 2.5 goals versus the current odds. Cruzeiro’s matches go over 2.5 goals in 60% of home games and Remo does so in 60% of away games, yet the last five head‑to‑head meetings averaged only 2.2 goals and just 2 of those 5 games (40%) exceeded 2.5. The combination of the model edge and the low recent H2H scoring suggests the under‑2.5 market is attractive.
Mirassol shade it at 52%. Over 2.5 at 44%, likeliest score 1-0.
Vitória shade it at 42%. Both teams to score at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
Internacional shade it at 48%. Over 2.5 at 47%, likeliest score 1-1.
Palmeiras are clear favourites at 61%. Over 2.5 at 51%, likeliest score 1-0.
Vasco da Gama shade it at 55%. Over 2.5 at 49%, likeliest score 1-0.
Fluminense shade it at 42%. Over 2.5 at 46%, likeliest score 1-1.
Audax Italiano shade it at 42%. Both teams to score at 59%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: La Serena 37%, Concepcion 38%. Over 2.5 at 55%, likeliest score 1-1.
Deportes Iquique shade it at 44%. Both teams to score at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
San Luis shade it at 54%. Over 2.5 at 56%, likeliest score 1-1.
Rangers shade it at 51%. Over 2.5 at 52%, likeliest score 1-1.
Unión Española shade it at 50%. Over 2.5 at 55%, likeliest score 1-1.
Copiapó shade it at 49%. Over 2.5 at 55%, likeliest score 1-1.
Puerto Montt are clear favourites at 60%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-0.
Atlético Bucaramanga shade it at 42%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 0-1.
Junior FC shade it at 56%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Juventud 33%, Peñarol 38%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 62%, likeliest score 1-1.
Albion shade it at 46%. Over 2.5 at 43%, likeliest score 0-1.
Too close to call: Defensor Sporting 36%, Racing 35%. Over 2.5 at 41%, likeliest score 1-1.
Deportivo Maldonado shade it at 51%. Over 2.5 at 44%, likeliest score 1-0.
Sporting JAX W shade it at 43%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-1.
Houston Dash W shade it at 51%. Over 2.5 at 54%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Utah Royals W 40%, Seattle Reign W 35%. Both teams to score at 58%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Portland Thorns W 38%, North Carolina Courage W 38%. Both teams to score at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
Denver Summit W shade it at 56%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 68%, likeliest score 2-1.
Sport Recife shade it at 40%. Over 2.5 at 49%, likeliest score 1-1.
Avaí shade it at 43%. Over 2.5 at 44%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: São Bernardo 36%, Vila Nova 35%. Over 2.5 at 43%, likeliest score 1-1.
Atlético GO shade it at 40%. Over 2.5 at 44%, likeliest score 1-1.
CRB shade it at 60%. Both teams to score at 58%, likeliest score 2-1.
Fortaleza are clear favourites at 63%. Over 2.5 at 43%, likeliest score 0-1.
Chapulineros shade it at 41%. Over 2.5 at 47%, likeliest score 1-1.
Tigre shade it at 40%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 64%, likeliest score 1-0.
Too close to call: Banfield 32%, Lanús 40%. Over 2.5 at 40%, likeliest score 1-1.
Lanús away win – +8% value edge
Our model assigns an 8.13% negative value to the away‑win odds (2.10), indicating the market underprices Lanús. Lanús have been excellent away, winning 40% of their away games this season and averaging 1.40 points per away match. In their last five away outings they are unbeaten, with four wins, one draw and just one goal conceded. This strong form aligns with the model’s higher probability for an away victory.
Too close to call: Talleres Córdoba 40%, Defensa y Justicia 33%. Over 2.5 at 46%, likeliest score 1-1.
San Lorenzo shade it at 42%. Over 2.5 at 42%, likeliest score 1-0.
Necaxa shade it at 50%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 63%, likeliest score 2-1.
Atlante shade it at 47%. Both teams to score at 60%, likeliest score 1-1.
Home win offers +7% edge
Our model assigns a 48.6% chance to a home victory, translating to a +7.3% value over the bookmaker’s implied 41.3% (odds 2.42). Despite Atlante’s modest home record – only 17% of home games won and zero wins at halftime – the model still sees a clear advantage, making the home win bet attractive.
Tepatitlán de Morelos shade it at 46%. Both teams to score at 59%, likeliest score 1-1.
Auckland City shade it at 54%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 62%, likeliest score 1-1.
Juventud Antoniana are clear favourites at 63%. Over 2.5 at 41%, likeliest score 1-0.
Árabe Unido shade it at 39%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
La Piedad Imperial are clear favourites at 87%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 87%, likeliest score 3-0.
Too close to call: Xolos de Hermosillo 38%, Atlético Tijuana 38%. Both teams to score at 59%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Escorpiones Belén 37%, Sporting San José 38%. Over 2.5 at 52%, likeliest score 1-1.
NTV Beleza W are clear favourites at 74%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 63%, likeliest score 2-0.
Albirex Niigata W shade it at 50%. Over 2.5 at 49%, likeliest score 1-1.
Urawa Reds W shade it at 46%. Both teams to score at 60%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Vegalta Sendai W 36%, Nojima Stella W 40%. Both teams to score at 59%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Tijuana W 38%, Pumas UNAM W 39%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 60%, likeliest score 1-1.
Brisbane Roar W shade it at 47%. Over 2.5 at 57%, likeliest score 1-1.
Canberra United W shade it at 47%. Over 2.5 at 55%, likeliest score 1-1.
Adelaide United W shade it at 49%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 60%, likeliest score 1-1.
Urayasu shade it at 49%. Over 2.5 at 47%, likeliest score 1-1.
Reinmeer Aomori shade it at 51%. Over 2.5 at 47%, likeliest score 1-0.
Too close to call: Criacao Shinjuku 39%, Minebea Mitsumi 36%. Over 2.5 at 52%, likeliest score 1-1.
Veertien Mie shade it at 53%. Over 2.5 at 49%, likeliest score 0-1.
Too close to call: Newcastle Jets 42%, Macarthur 36%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 67%, likeliest score 1-1.
Western Sydney Wanderers shade it at 42%. Both teams to score at 60%, likeliest score 1-1.
Melbourne Victory shade it at 44%. Both teams to score at 59%, likeliest score 1-1.
Avondale Heights are clear favourites at 65%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 65%, likeliest score 2-1.
Too close to call: Marconi Stallions 37%, Oakleigh Cannons 36%. Over 2.5 at 44%, likeliest score 1-1.
Canberra FC are clear favourites at 69%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 72%, likeliest score 2-1.
Seoul shade it at 51%. Over 2.5 at 51%, likeliest score 1-1.
Daejeon Citizen shade it at 42%. Over 2.5 at 54%, likeliest score 1-1.
Jeonbuk Motors shade it at 54%. Over 2.5 at 52%, likeliest score 1-1.
Ulsan HD shade it at 50%. Over 2.5 at 54%, likeliest score 1-1.
Incheon United shade it at 46%. Over 2.5 at 46%, likeliest score 1-1.
Bucheon 1995 shade it at 41%. Over 2.5 at 47%, likeliest score 1-1.
Daegu shade it at 49%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-1.
Gimpo shade it at 49%. Over 2.5 at 49%, likeliest score 1-1.
SKA Khabarovsk shade it at 42%. Over 2.5 at 48%, likeliest score 1-1.
FK Nizjni Novgorod shade it at 49%. Over 2.5 at 45%, likeliest score 1-1.
Sochi shade it at 57%. Over 2.5 at 47%, likeliest score 0-1.
Too close to call: Arsenal Tula 34%, KAMAZ 38%. Over 2.5 at 47%, likeliest score 1-1.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima are clear favourites at 64%. Over 2.5 at 56%, likeliest score 2-0.
Too close to call: Vissel Kobe 37%, Machida Zelvia 34%. Over 2.5 at 41%, likeliest score 1-1.
BTTS Yes – Strong 8.7% Edge
Our model flags a -8.71% value edge for Both Teams To Score. Vissel Kobe’s matches feature both sides scoring in 40% of all games and an impressive 75% when playing at home. Machida Zelvia records BTTS in 70% of its matches and 60% of away games. The combination of high BTTS rates from both sides supports the model’s strong edge.
Avispa Fukuoka shade it at 46%. Over 2.5 at 44%, likeliest score 0-1.
Kashima Antlers shade it at 49%. Over 2.5 at 51%, likeliest score 1-1.
Kashiwa Reysol strong away value
Our model shows an -8.58% value edge for an away win. Kashiwa Reysol have won 80% of their away matches this season and average 2.40 points per away game. In the last five they have secured three wins and are on a three‑game winning streak, indicating strong form away from home.
Gamba Osaka shade it at 54%. Over 2.5 at 55%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Fujieda MYFC 38%, Tokushima Vortis 34%. Over 2.5 at 45%, likeliest score 1-1.
Omiya Ardija shade it at 41%. Over 2.5 at 54%, likeliest score 1-1.
Sagamihara shade it at 45%. Over 2.5 at 46%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Osaka 35%, Kagoshima United 39%. Over 2.5 at 48%, likeliest score 1-1.
ThespaKusatsu Gunma shade it at 44%. Over 2.5 at 51%, likeliest score 1-1.
Nara Club shade it at 44%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 63%, likeliest score 1-1.
Ryazan VDV W shade it at 51%. Over 2.5 at 55%, likeliest score 0-1.
Zenit W are clear favourites at 67%. Over 2.5 at 41%, likeliest score 0-1.
CSKA Moscow W shade it at 55%. Over 2.5 at 45%, likeliest score 0-1.
Lokomotiv Moscow W are clear favourites at 77%. Over 2.5 at 58%, likeliest score 0-2.
Rubin Kazan W shade it at 44%. Over 2.5 at 44%, likeliest score 1-1.
Spartak Moskva W are clear favourites at 80%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 64%, likeliest score 2-0.
Guangxi Hengchen shade it at 46%. Over 2.5 at 47%, likeliest score 1-1.
Changchun Yatai shade it at 59%. Over 2.5 at 55%, likeliest score 1-0.
Too close to call: Foshan Nashi FC 33%, Nanjing City 37%. Over 2.5 at 41%, likeliest score 1-1.
Nantong Zhiyun shade it at 51%. Over 2.5 at 50%, likeliest score 1-1.
Shijiazhuang Gongfu shade it at 44%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 64%, likeliest score 1-0.
Too close to call: Liaoning Tieren FC 41%, Zhejiang 36%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 64%, likeliest score 1-1.
Shanghai Port shade it at 44%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
Qingdao West Coast shade it at 50%. Over 2.5 at 52%, likeliest score 1-0.
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC are clear favourites at 62%. Over 2.5 at 55%, likeliest score 1-0.
Shanghai Shenhua shade it at 50%. Both teams to score at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
Beijing Guoan shade it at 43%. Over 2.5 at 51%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Wuhan Three Towns 34%, Shandong Taishan 41%. Both teams to score at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
Chengdu Rongcheng shade it at 53%. Over 2.5 at 58%, likeliest score 1-1.
Shandong Taishan II shade it at 43%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 64%, likeliest score 1-0.
Qingdao Red Lions are clear favourites at 66%. Over 2.5 at 45%, likeliest score 1-0.
Too close to call: Beijing BIT 37%, Xiamen Feilu 34%. Over 2.5 at 43%, likeliest score 1-1.
Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic shade it at 55%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 63%, likeliest score 1-0.
Tai'an Tiankuang shade it at 59%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 60%, likeliest score 1-0.
Guangzhou Dandelion shade it at 40%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 65%, likeliest score 1-0.
Too close to call: Wenzhou 39%, Lanzhou Longyuan 32%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 63%, likeliest score 1-0.
Metalul Buzău are clear favourites at 72%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 62%, likeliest score 2-0.
Gloria Bistrita are clear favourites at 73%. Over 2.5 at 54%, likeliest score 1-0.
Popești-Leordeni are clear favourites at 71%. Over 2.5 at 59%, likeliest score 0-2.
Cetatea Suceava shade it at 45%. Over 2.5 at 57%, likeliest score 1-1.
Concordia Chiajna shade it at 49%. Over 2.5 at 56%, likeliest score 1-1.
ASU Poli Timişoara are clear favourites at 63%. Over 2.5 at 50%, likeliest score 1-0.
Ceske Budejovice U19 shade it at 52%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 79%, likeliest score 2-1.
Plzen U19 are clear favourites at 65%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 77%, likeliest score 2-1.
Sigma Olomouc U19 shade it at 57%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 71%, likeliest score 2-1.
Hradec Kralove U19 are clear favourites at 71%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 76%, likeliest score 2-1.
Home win over‑priced despite dominant form
Our model rates the home win at 71.24% but the market odds (1.18) imply an 84.75% chance, creating a -13.5% value gap. Hradec Kralove have won 4 of 6 home games (67% win rate), average 2.67 goals at home and see over 2.5 goals in 67% of those matches, indicating strong home dominance that the odds over‑price.
Too close to call: Slavia Prague U19 43%, Opava U19 38%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 73%, likeliest score 1-1.
Sparta Praha U19 are clear favourites at 68%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 77%, likeliest score 2-1.
Dukla Prague U19 shade it at 51%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 69%, likeliest score 1-2.
Too close to call: Illés Akadémia U19 42%, ZTE U19 37%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 71%, likeliest score 1-1.
Honved U19 shade it at 43%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Puskás Akadémia U19 40%, Debrecen U19 39%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 74%, likeliest score 1-1.
Kisvárda U19 shade it at 47%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 73%, likeliest score 1-2.
Too close to call: Eastern 39%, Southern District 39%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 66%, likeliest score 1-1.
Kitchee shade it at 51%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 66%, likeliest score 1-2.
Shanghai RCB W shade it at 44%. Over 2.5 at 46%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Sichuan W 35%, Shaanxi Chang AN Athletic FC W 37%. Over 2.5 at 41%, likeliest score 1-1.
Slavoj Český Krumlov shade it at 44%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 68%, likeliest score 1-1.
Komárov shade it at 50%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 71%, likeliest score 1-1.
TJ Tatran Bohunice shade it at 58%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 65%, likeliest score 2-1.
Kuřim are clear favourites at 68%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 70%, likeliest score 2-1.
Opava II shade it at 53%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 71%, likeliest score 2-1.
Valašské Meziříčí shade it at 46%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 76%, likeliest score 1-2.
Vratimov shade it at 49%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 65%, likeliest score 1-2.
Mlada Boleslav II shade it at 55%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 72%, likeliest score 2-1.
Chrudim shade it at 46%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Povltava FA 43%, Příbram II 36%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 68%, likeliest score 1-1.
Aritma Praha shade it at 54%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 60%, likeliest score 2-1.
Benesov shade it at 54%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 73%, likeliest score 2-1.
Motorlet Praha shade it at 45%. Both teams to score at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
Admira Praha shade it at 45%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 66%, likeliest score 1-1.
Horní Ředice shade it at 47%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 71%, likeliest score 1-2.
Benatky nad Jizerou shade it at 51%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 65%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Králův Dvůr 41%, České Budějovice 38%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 73%, likeliest score 1-1.
Jiskra Domažlice shade it at 46%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 76%, likeliest score 2-2.
Újezd Praha 4 shade it at 45%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 68%, likeliest score 1-1.
Tempo Praha shade it at 54%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 72%, likeliest score 1-2.
Ústí nad Labem II are clear favourites at 65%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 77%, likeliest score 2-1.
Rapid Psáry are clear favourites at 67%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 77%, likeliest score 2-1.
Slavia Hradec Králové shade it at 54%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 71%, likeliest score 1-1.
Pěnčín-Turnov shade it at 49%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 76%, likeliest score 1-2.
Vysoke Myto shade it at 51%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 64%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Adhyaksa 40%, PSIM Yogyakarta 36%. Both teams to score at 59%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Persijap 35%, Malut United 40%. Over 2.5 at 52%, likeliest score 1-1.
Persikad shade it at 45%. Both teams to score at 62%, likeliest score 1-1.
Persis Solo shade it at 53%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 64%, likeliest score 2-1.
Kendal Tornado are clear favourites at 62%. Over 2.5 at 57%, likeliest score 1-1.
Semen Padang shade it at 51%. Over 2.5 at 52%, likeliest score 1-1.
Bekasi City shade it at 53%. Over 2.5 at 56%, likeliest score 1-1.
Persiraja Banda Aceh shade it at 49%. Over 2.5 at 51%, likeliest score 1-1.
Mohammedan Dhaka are clear favourites at 91%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 85%, likeliest score 3-0.
Bangladesh Police are clear favourites at 75%. Over 2.5 at 48%, likeliest score 0-2.
Oleksandria shade it at 52%. Over 2.5 at 46%, likeliest score 1-0.
Viktoriya Mykolaivka shade it at 42%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 65%, likeliest score 0-1.
Polissya II shade it at 52%. Both teams to score at 58%, likeliest score 1-1.
Cigánd SE are clear favourites at 66%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 64%, likeliest score 1-2.
Kaohsiung Attackers W are clear favourites at 91%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 73%, likeliest score 3-0.
FC Tallinn shade it at 51%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 69%, likeliest score 1-2.
Paide W are clear favourites at 97%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 94%, likeliest score 3-0.
Manila Digger shade it at 53%. Over 2.5 at 56%, likeliest score 1-1.
Yangon United shade it at 44%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 63%, likeliest score 1-1.
Hang Yuan shade it at 49%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 67%, likeliest score 1-1.
Dinamo Moskva shade it at 57%. Over 2.5 at 51%, likeliest score 0-1.
Fakel shade it at 45%. Over 2.5 at 46%, likeliest score 1-1.
Rubin Kazan shade it at 42%. Over 2.5 at 43%, likeliest score 1-1.
Krasnodar shade it at 49%. Over 2.5 at 46%, likeliest score 1-0.
Liepāja are clear favourites at 69%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 68%, likeliest score 2-1.
Okzhetpes shade it at 51%. Over 2.5 at 55%, likeliest score 1-1.
Tobyl shade it at 44%. Over 2.5 at 50%, likeliest score 1-1.
Kyzyl-Zhar shade it at 49%. Over 2.5 at 48%, likeliest score 1-0.
Ordabasy are clear favourites at 79%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 60%, likeliest score 2-0.
Dinamo Minsk shade it at 46%. Over 2.5 at 43%, likeliest score 1-1.
Isloch are clear favourites at 67%. Over 2.5 at 50%, likeliest score 0-1.
BATE shade it at 52%. Over 2.5 at 54%, likeliest score 1-1.
ML Vitebsk shade it at 51%. Over 2.5 at 44%, likeliest score 0-1.
Salyut Belgorod are clear favourites at 75%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 62%, likeliest score 2-0.
Spartak Tambov are clear favourites at 80%. Over 2.5 at 59%, likeliest score 2-0.
Metallurg Lipetsk shade it at 53%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-0.
Volna Kovernino shade it at 58%. Over 2.5 at 57%, likeliest score 1-1.
Astrakhan shade it at 41%. Over 2.5 at 48%, likeliest score 1-1.
Spartak Nal'chik shade it at 46%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-1.
Zarya Lugansk shade it at 43%. Over 2.5 at 59%, likeliest score 1-1.
Pobeda shade it at 46%. Both teams to score at 59%, likeliest score 1-1.
Rostov II shade it at 46%. Over 2.5 at 56%, likeliest score 1-1.
Sevastopol are clear favourites at 73%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 70%, likeliest score 1-2.
Rekord Bielsko-Biała shade it at 52%. Over 2.5 at 55%, likeliest score 1-1.
Falubaz Zielona Góra shade it at 45%. Both teams to score at 60%, likeliest score 1-1.
Olimpia Grudziądz shade it at 49%. Both teams to score at 59%, likeliest score 1-1.
Chojniczanka Chojnice shade it at 43%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 63%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Stal Stalowa Wola 40%, Sandecja Nowy Sącz 34%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Livyi Bereh 37%, LNZ Cherkasy 33%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv are clear favourites at 63%. Over 2.5 at 49%, likeliest score 0-1.
Shakhtar Donetsk are clear favourites at 62%. Over 2.5 at 58%, likeliest score 1-0.
Too close to call: Sporting CP II 34%, Portimonense SAD 38%. Over 2.5 at 42%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Académica 36%, Leixões 35%. Over 2.5 at 46%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Feirense 34%, Benfica II 35%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 63%, likeliest score 1-1.
Farense shade it at 52%. Over 2.5 at 49%, likeliest score 1-1.
København U19 shade it at 54%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 75%, likeliest score 2-1.
Nordsjaelland U19 shade it at 50%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 68%, likeliest score 1-2.
Lyngby U19 shade it at 45%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 74%, likeliest score 1-2.
SønderjyskE U19 shade it at 44%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 72%, likeliest score 1-1.
Brøndby U19 shade it at 55%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 72%, likeliest score 1-2.
ONS W are clear favourites at 63%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 74%, likeliest score 2-1.
Dinamo Zagreb U19 are clear favourites at 82%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 71%, likeliest score 2-0.
Wolfsburg W are clear favourites at 74%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 75%, likeliest score 2-1.
Eintracht Frankfurt W shade it at 53%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 71%, likeliest score 1-2.
Athletic Club W shade it at 53%. Over 2.5 at 50%, likeliest score 1-0.
Real Sociedad W shade it at 49%. Over 2.5 at 56%, likeliest score 1-1.
Real Madrid W are clear favourites at 69%. Over 2.5 at 59%, likeliest score 2-0.
Too close to call: Logroño United W 35%, FC Badalona Women 40%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-1.
Barcelona W are clear favourites at 84%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 79%, likeliest score 3-0.
Too close to call: Eibar II 35%, Bergantiños 36%. Over 2.5 at 44%, likeliest score 1-1.
Deportivo Alaves II shade it at 48%. Over 2.5 at 43%, likeliest score 1-1.
SD Amorebieta shade it at 41%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 62%, likeliest score 1-1.
Llanera shade it at 41%. Over 2.5 at 40%, likeliest score 1-1.
Sestao River shade it at 52%. Over 2.5 at 43%, likeliest score 1-0.
Too close to call: Piast Gliwice 37%, Cracovia Kraków 36%. Both teams to score at 60%, likeliest score 1-1.
Korona Kielce shade it at 47%. Over 2.5 at 52%, likeliest score 1-1.
Pogoń Szczecin shade it at 51%. Over 2.5 at 58%, likeliest score 2-1.
Wisła Kraków shade it at 60%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 62%, likeliest score 2-1.
Home win edge +5.2% on flawless home form
Our model assigns a +5.25% value edge to a home victory. Wisła Kraków have won every one of their five home games this season (100% home win rate) and are on a three‑match winning streak. In the last five head‑to‑heads they have already secured two wins, reinforcing the home advantage.
Too close to call: Ümraniyespor 34%, Sivasspor 40%. Over 2.5 at 48%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Bandırmaspor 37%, Iğdır FK 34%. Over 2.5 at 44%, likeliest score 1-1.
Muğlaspor shade it at 52%. Over 2.5 at 48%, likeliest score 1-0.
Sarıyer SK shade it at 49%. Over 2.5 at 49%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Eyüpspor 38%, Kasımpaşa 37%. Over 2.5 at 54%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Gaziantep F.K. 38%, Erzurumspor FK 33%. Over 2.5 at 42%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Samsunspor 34%, Amed SK 39%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-1.
Kahramanmaraş İstiklalsp shade it at 43%. Both teams to score at 60%, likeliest score 1-1.
Ankara Demirspor shade it at 58%. Over 2.5 at 58%, likeliest score 1-1.
Serik Belediyespor shade it at 48%. Both teams to score at 60%, likeliest score 1-1.
İnegölspor shade it at 45%. Over 2.5 at 55%, likeliest score 1-1.
52 Orduspor FK shade it at 49%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-1.
Sakaryaspor shade it at 59%. Over 2.5 at 58%, likeliest score 1-1.
Ankaragücü are clear favourites at 69%. Over 2.5 at 56%, likeliest score 2-0.
AC Milan W shade it at 50%. Over 2.5 at 54%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Juventus W 34%, Roma W 41%. Over 2.5 at 57%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Vukovar 37%, Bijelo Brdo 37%. Over 2.5 at 45%, likeliest score 1-1.
Segesta Sisak shade it at 54%. Over 2.5 at 50%, likeliest score 1-0.
Dugopolje shade it at 49%. Over 2.5 at 46%, likeliest score 1-0.
Karlovac 1919 shade it at 48%. Over 2.5 at 49%, likeliest score 1-1.
Aragvi Dusheti shade it at 45%. Over 2.5 at 54%, likeliest score 1-1.
Telavi shade it at 51%. Over 2.5 at 43%, likeliest score 1-0.
Gori shade it at 43%. Both teams to score at 59%, likeliest score 1-1.
Shturmi shade it at 53%. Over 2.5 at 50%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: WIT Georgia 38%, FC Tbilisi 37%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-1.
Jitex W shade it at 49%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
Umea W shade it at 56%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 67%, likeliest score 1-2.
Elfsborg W are clear favourites at 83%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 73%, likeliest score 0-3.
IFK Göteborg W are clear favourites at 66%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 70%, likeliest score 2-1.
KIF Orebro W are clear favourites at 70%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 0-2.
FK Dinamo St. Petersburg are clear favourites at 62%. Over 2.5 at 56%, likeliest score 1-0.
Olympic shade it at 46%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 70%, likeliest score 1-2.
Rosengård are clear favourites at 60%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 66%, likeliest score 2-1.
Ariana are clear favourites at 62%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 68%, likeliest score 2-1.
Lund are clear favourites at 61%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 68%, likeliest score 1-2.
Hässleholms IF shade it at 54%. Over 2.5 at 58%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Trollhättan 42%, Jönköpings Södra 34%. Both teams to score at 59%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Värnamo 35%, Sandvikens IF 40%. Over 2.5 at 55%, likeliest score 1-1.
Östersunds FK shade it at 47%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-1.
Brage shade it at 48%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 63%, likeliest score 2-1.
Too close to call: Tauras 39%, Be1 NFA 38%. Both teams to score at 59%, likeliest score 1-1.
Neptūną Klaipėda shade it at 60%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 2-1.
Minija are clear favourites at 74%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 60%, likeliest score 0-2.
Atmosfera shade it at 44%. Over 2.5 at 54%, likeliest score 1-1.
Dunav 2010 shade it at 46%. Over 2.5 at 42%, likeliest score 1-0.
Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 shade it at 42%. Over 2.5 at 48%, likeliest score 1-1.
Rodina Moskva II shade it at 43%. Over 2.5 at 44%, likeliest score 1-1.
Dinamo Kirov shade it at 46%. Over 2.5 at 49%, likeliest score 1-1.
Mashuk-KMV shade it at 39%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 67%, likeliest score 0-0.
Volgar Astrakhan shade it at 39%. Over 2.5 at 42%, likeliest score 1-1.
Alaniya Vladikavkaz shade it at 43%. Over 2.5 at 43%, likeliest score 1-1.
Illertissen shade it at 43%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 64%, likeliest score 1-1.
FC Bayern München II are clear favourites at 62%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 60%, likeliest score 2-0.
Greuther Fürth II shade it at 52%. Over 2.5 at 57%, likeliest score 1-1.
Unterhaching are clear favourites at 73%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 63%, likeliest score 2-0.
Nürnberg II are clear favourites at 73%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 71%, likeliest score 2-0.
Aalborg BK shade it at 52%. Both teams to score at 59%, likeliest score 1-1.
Home win is over‑priced
Our model shows a –7.64% edge on the home‑win odds. Hillerød have won only 40% of their home games and just 1 of their last 5 at home, while Aalborg boast a 40% away win rate and are unbeaten in their last four away fixtures. The combination of poor home form and strong away form makes the home‑win market unattractive.
Fredericia shade it at 54%. Over 2.5 at 58%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Akademisk Boldklub 38%, Kolding IF 35%. Both teams to score at 59%, likeliest score 1-1.
Home win undervalued by 11%
Our model rates the home side’s chance at 35.48% while the market implies 46.51%, creating an -11.03% value edge against the 2.15 odds. The home team have won four of their last five matches, collecting 12 points and scoring 11 goals, showing strong recent momentum.
Too close to call: Vejle Boldklub 35%, Aarhus Fremad 41%. Both teams to score at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
Dassendorf shade it at 54%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 66%, likeliest score 2-1.
Too close to call: Altona 93 39%, Niendorfer TSV 43%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 78%, likeliest score 1-2.
Too close to call: Kazincbarcika 38%, Nagykanizsai TE 36%. Over 2.5 at 54%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: BVSC 38%, Tiszakecske 35%. Over 2.5 at 48%, likeliest score 1-1.
Kecskemeti TE are clear favourites at 72%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 2-0.
Kozarmisleny shade it at 42%. Over 2.5 at 48%, likeliest score 1-1.
MOL Fehérvár shade it at 55%. Over 2.5 at 47%, likeliest score 1-0.
Too close to call: Szeged 2011 33%, Diósgyőr 40%. Over 2.5 at 48%, likeliest score 1-1.
Gyirmót shade it at 56%. Over 2.5 at 54%, likeliest score 2-1.
Ishøj shade it at 42%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Næsby 36%, Holbæk B&I 40%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 68%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Vanløse 40%, ASA Aarhus 35%. Over 2.5 at 56%, likeliest score 1-1.
Holstebro shade it at 42%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 68%, likeliest score 1-1.
Magdeburg shade it at 53%. Both teams to score at 59%, likeliest score 1-1.
Hertha BSC shade it at 46%. Both teams to score at 59%, likeliest score 1-1.
FC Heidenheim shade it at 49%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 64%, likeliest score 1-1.
Nürnberg shade it at 50%. Both teams to score at 59%, likeliest score 1-1.
Diósgyőri VTK W shade it at 54%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 69%, likeliest score 2-1.
Austria Wien W are clear favourites at 80%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 64%, likeliest score 2-0.
FC Salzburg Frauen are clear favourites at 73%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 66%, likeliest score 0-2.
Brondby W are clear favourites at 66%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 67%, likeliest score 2-1.
Deportivo La Coruña II shade it at 49%. Over 2.5 at 47%, likeliest score 1-1.
Arenas de Getxo shade it at 41%. Over 2.5 at 41%, likeliest score 1-1.
Mirandés shade it at 53%. Over 2.5 at 43%, likeliest score 1-0.
UD Logroñés shade it at 43%. Over 2.5 at 52%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Cacereño 38%, Zamora 32%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
Athletic Club II shade it at 43%. Over 2.5 at 47%, likeliest score 1-1.
Ponferradina shade it at 40%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 65%, likeliest score 1-0.
Cultural Leonesa shade it at 52%. Over 2.5 at 46%, likeliest score 1-1.
Real Murcia shade it at 42%. Over 2.5 at 46%, likeliest score 1-1.
Rayo Majadahonda shade it at 44%. Over 2.5 at 42%, likeliest score 1-1.
Huesca shade it at 54%. Over 2.5 at 45%, likeliest score 1-0.
Too close to call: Teruel 32%, Águilas CF 35%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 69%, likeliest score 0-0.
Port FC are clear favourites at 66%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 68%, likeliest score 2-1.
Buriram United are clear favourites at 72%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 62%, likeliest score 2-0.
BG Pathum United shade it at 54%. Over 2.5 at 57%, likeliest score 2-1.
Ratchaburi Mitrphol FC shade it at 53%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 64%, likeliest score 1-1.
Svay Rieng shade it at 49%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 71%, likeliest score 1-1.
Phnom Penh Crown are clear favourites at 77%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 73%, likeliest score 0-2.
Inter Turku shade it at 46%. Over 2.5 at 52%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Gnistan 37%, Oulu 36%. Both teams to score at 59%, likeliest score 1-1.
Paide shade it at 55%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 60%, likeliest score 1-2.
Levadia are clear favourites at 84%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 80%, likeliest score 3-0.
Næstved shade it at 44%. Over 2.5 at 52%, likeliest score 1-1.
Middelfart shade it at 50%. Both teams to score at 59%, likeliest score 1-1.
B 93 shade it at 49%. Both teams to score at 60%, likeliest score 1-1.
Connah's Quay are clear favourites at 61%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 2-1.
Barry Town United are clear favourites at 65%. Over 2.5 at 50%, likeliest score 1-0.
Harrogate Town shade it at 57%. Over 2.5 at 57%, likeliest score 2-1.
Undervalued Under 2.5 Goals
Our model flags a -9.73% value edge for the Under 2.5‑goals market (model probability 53.19% versus the odds‑derived 63%). Sutton’s away record supports a low‑scoring affair: only 33% of their away matches have gone over 2.5 goals and they average just one goal per away game. Combined, the data suggests the under‑2.5 line is priced attractively.
Too close to call: Eastleigh 41%, Boston United 35%. Both teams to score at 58%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Hartlepool United 41%, AFC Hornchurch 34%. Over 2.5 at 55%, likeliest score 1-1.
Boreham Wood are clear favourites at 66%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 69%, likeliest score 2-1.
Boreham Wood riding 5‑game winning streak
Our model flags a -5.01% value edge on the home win despite odds of 1.43, implying the market overvalues Boreham Wood. The hosts have won all five of their last matches, scoring 18 goals while conceding just five, and boast a perfect record of matches going over 2.5 goals at home (100%). Combine this form with the model’s slight negative value to suggest a solid bet on the home side.
Yeovil Town shade it at 48%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 63%, likeliest score 1-1.
Scunthorpe United shade it at 46%. Both teams to score at 60%, likeliest score 1-1.
Barrow shade it at 45%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-1.
Aldershot Town shade it at 47%. Both teams to score at 60%, likeliest score 1-1.
Carlisle United shade it at 58%. Over 2.5 at 58%, likeliest score 1-2.
Southend United shade it at 59%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 62%, likeliest score 2-1.
Too close to call: Kidderminster Harriers 41%, Worthing 34%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-1.
Sheffield United shade it at 50%. Both teams to score at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Portsmouth 37%, Millwall 37%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-1.
Charlton Athletic shade it at 42%. Over 2.5 at 50%, likeliest score 1-1.
Cardiff City shade it at 48%. Over 2.5 at 57%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: West Ham United 38%, Southampton 38%. Both teams to score at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
Wolverhampton Wanderers shade it at 54%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-1.
West Bromwich Albion shade it at 45%. Over 2.5 at 54%, likeliest score 1-1.
Lincoln City shade it at 42%. Over 2.5 at 52%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Stoke City 37%, Bristol City 36%. Over 2.5 at 47%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Queens Park Rangers 41%, Swansea City 35%. Both teams to score at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Blackburn Rovers 37%, Wrexham 34%. Over 2.5 at 42%, likeliest score 1-1.
Colchester United shade it at 41%. Over 2.5 at 45%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Cheltenham Town 38%, Newport County 36%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-1.
Bristol Rovers shade it at 56%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 60%, likeliest score 1-1.
Chesterfield shade it at 46%. Over 2.5 at 49%, likeliest score 1-1.
Barnet shade it at 55%. Over 2.5 at 58%, likeliest score 1-1.
York City are clear favourites at 64%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-0.
Grimsby Town shade it at 44%. Over 2.5 at 44%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Rotherham United 32%, Shrewsbury Town 39%. Over 2.5 at 42%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Crawley Town 36%, Tranmere Rovers 37%. Over 2.5 at 48%, likeliest score 1-1.
Exeter City shade it at 47%. Over 2.5 at 44%, likeliest score 1-0.
Rochdale shade it at 51%. Over 2.5 at 52%, likeliest score 1-1.
Luton Town shade it at 48%. Over 2.5 at 52%, likeliest score 1-1.
Huddersfield Town are clear favourites at 63%. Over 2.5 at 47%, likeliest score 1-0.
Too close to call: AFC Wimbledon 32%, Wycombe Wanderers 40%. Over 2.5 at 45%, likeliest score 1-1.
Stevenage shade it at 41%. Over 2.5 at 51%, likeliest score 1-1.
Reading shade it at 49%. Over 2.5 at 54%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Blackpool 40%, Mansfield Town 33%. Over 2.5 at 50%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Bromley 39%, Peterborough United 36%. Over 2.5 at 52%, likeliest score 1-1.
Stockport County shade it at 50%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Cambridge United 39%, Plymouth Argyle 35%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-1.
Doncaster Rovers shade it at 43%. Over 2.5 at 46%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Oxford United 35%, Bradford City 38%. Over 2.5 at 48%, likeliest score 1-1.
Leyton Orient shade it at 41%. Over 2.5 at 48%, likeliest score 1-1.
Laçi shade it at 55%. Over 2.5 at 52%, likeliest score 1-1.
Partizani Tirana shade it at 47%. Over 2.5 at 42%, likeliest score 1-0.
Teuta Durrës shade it at 52%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 1-0.
Manchester City shade it at 54%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
Arsenal are clear favourites at 65%. Over 2.5 at 50%, likeliest score 1-0.
Too close to call: Coventry City 40%, Fulham 34%. Over 2.5 at 54%, likeliest score 1-1.
Chelsea shade it at 55%. Both teams to score at 59%, likeliest score 1-1.
Sopoti Librazhd shade it at 45%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 60%, likeliest score 1-0.
Besa Kavajë are clear favourites at 70%. Over 2.5 at 52%, likeliest score 1-0.
Burreli shade it at 54%. Over 2.5 at 49%, likeliest score 1-0.
Arsenal W shade it at 51%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 64%, likeliest score 1-2.
Brighton W shade it at 60%. Over 2.5 at 57%, likeliest score 1-0.
Kallithea shade it at 48%. Over 2.5 at 42%, likeliest score 1-1.
Panserraikos shade it at 54%. Over 2.5 at 46%, likeliest score 1-0.
Too close to call: Olympiakos Piraeus II 37%, Nestos Chrisoupolis 35%. Over 2.5 at 46%, likeliest score 1-1.
Apollon Pontou FC shade it at 37%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 71%, likeliest score 0-0.
Ranheim shade it at 47%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 68%, likeliest score 1-1.
Eintracht Bamberg shade it at 47%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 69%, likeliest score 1-1.
Würzburger FV shade it at 46%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 63%, likeliest score 1-1.
Fortuna Regensburg shade it at 45%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 64%, likeliest score 1-1.
Jahn Regensburg II shade it at 44%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 70%, likeliest score 1-1.
Ismaning shade it at 53%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 70%, likeliest score 2-1.
Too close to call: Kottern 39%, Heimstetten 38%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 67%, likeliest score 1-1.
Gundelfingen shade it at 47%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 63%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Kirchanschöring 36%, FSV Pfaffenhofen 42%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 64%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: RSV Eintracht 43%, Tasmania Berlin 37%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 71%, likeliest score 1-1.
Chemnitzer FC are clear favourites at 62%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 74%, likeliest score 2-1.
Erzgebirge Aue shade it at 56%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 63%, likeliest score 1-1.
Rot-Weiß Erfurt shade it at 56%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 67%, likeliest score 1-2.
Hannover 96 II are clear favourites at 79%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 79%, likeliest score 3-1.
Eimsbutteler TV are clear favourites at 65%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 80%, likeliest score 2-1.
Too close to call: Werder Bremen II 38%, Kickers Emden 40%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 70%, likeliest score 1-1.
Drochtersen / Assel are clear favourites at 73%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 78%, likeliest score 2-1.
VfB Oldenburg are clear favourites at 62%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 73%, likeliest score 2-1.
Austria Klagenfurt shade it at 48%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 63%, likeliest score 2-1.
FSC Hochegger Dächer shade it at 49%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 72%, likeliest score 2-1.
Treibach shade it at 52%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 62%, likeliest score 1-1.
Sportfreunde Siegen are clear favourites at 69%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 70%, likeliest score 1-2.
Too close to call: Hilden 38%, Schalke 04 II 43%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 75%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Westfalia Rhynern 35%, Borussia Mönchengladbach II 43%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 62%, likeliest score 1-1.
Bergisch Gladbach shade it at 53%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 75%, likeliest score 2-1.
FC Bocholt shade it at 51%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 68%, likeliest score 1-2.
Too close to call: Köln II 37%, SC Paderborn 07 U23 40%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 60%, likeliest score 1-1.
Metalac GM shade it at 43%. Over 2.5 at 48%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Naftagas 39%, Voždovac 32%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
Grafičar shade it at 47%. Over 2.5 at 49%, likeliest score 1-1.
Borac Čačak are clear favourites at 61%. Over 2.5 at 43%, likeliest score 1-0.
Too close to call: Otrant-Olympic 39%, Sutjeska 33%. Over 2.5 at 44%, likeliest score 1-1.
SGS Essen W shade it at 60%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 69%, likeliest score 1-1.
MSV Duisburg shade it at 48%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 62%, likeliest score 1-1.
Away win heavily favored by form
Our model rates a home win at only 27.8%, yet the odds imply a 33.8% chance – a -5.96% value gap. The home side has won just one of five matches at their stadium (20% home win rate) and averages 0.8 points per home game. Conversely, the visitors have triumphed in four of five away fixtures (80% away win rate) and collect 2.4 points on average away. The data together suggest the market overvalues a home victory and the away side is the smarter pick.
Viktoria Köln shade it at 49%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 69%, likeliest score 2-1.
Meppen are clear favourites at 60%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 69%, likeliest score 2-1.
Home win +10% value edge
Our model assigns a +9.96% value edge to a Meppen victory, even though Meppen have won only 20% of their home games this season and just one win in their last five at home. The head‑to‑head record also favours Würzburger with three away wins in the last five, underscoring the unexpected value in backing the home side.
Too close to call: Hansa Rostock 37%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 40%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 64%, likeliest score 1-1.
Sonnenhof Großaspach shade it at 44%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 67%, likeliest score 1-1.
Alemannia Aachen shade it at 56%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 68%, likeliest score 1-2.
Too close to call: Eintracht Trier 42%, Stuttgarter Kickers 36%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
Aalen shade it at 44%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Barockstadt Fulda-Lehnerz 42%, Mainz 05 II 36%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 62%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Astoria Walldorf 42%, Hessen Kassel 36%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 67%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: TSV Steinbach 41%, VfR Mannheim 37%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 69%, likeliest score 1-1.
Eintracht Frankfurt II shade it at 53%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 67%, likeliest score 1-2.
Too close to call: Břeclav 41%, Slavičín 37%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 69%, likeliest score 1-1.
Dijon shade it at 46%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 64%, likeliest score 1-1.
Saint-Étienne are clear favourites at 61%. Over 2.5 at 56%, likeliest score 1-0.
Too close to call: Córdoba 40%, SD Eibar 35%. Over 2.5 at 55%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Leganés 38%, Mallorca 34%. Over 2.5 at 43%, likeliest score 1-1.
Las Palmas shade it at 46%. Over 2.5 at 52%, likeliest score 1-1.
Over 2.5 Goals likely despite odds
Our model shows a -5.38% value edge for Over 2.5 Goals (model rating 51.76% vs implied 57.14%). The home side has gone over 2.5 goals in 80% of its home matches this season, while the visitors have hit the mark in 100% of their away games. In the last five fixtures each team recorded over‑2.5 goals (home 5 times, away 4 times), indicating a high scoring trend that the market is undervaluing.
Girona shade it at 55%. Over 2.5 at 54%, likeliest score 1-1.
Almería are clear favourites at 64%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 63%, likeliest score 2-1.
Goal fest ahead – Over 2.5 goals
Our model flags a +7.16% value edge for Over 2.5 goals. The home side has exceeded 2.5 goals in 80% of its home matches, while the visitors do the same in 80% of their away games. The last five head‑to‑head meetings averaged 2.8 goals, indicating a natural tendency for high‑scoring affairs.
Rayo Vallecano shade it at 50%. Over 2.5 at 41%, likeliest score 1-0.
Racing Santander shade it at 45%. Over 2.5 at 54%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Valencia 34%, Villarreal 40%. Over 2.5 at 52%, likeliest score 1-1.
Atlético de Madrid are clear favourites at 60%. Over 2.5 at 50%, likeliest score 1-0.
Drina Zvornik are clear favourites at 79%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 60%, likeliest score 2-0.
Leotar shade it at 41%. Over 2.5 at 40%, likeliest score 1-1.
Kozara Gradiska shade it at 50%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-1.
AEP Polemidion shade it at 41%. Over 2.5 at 47%, likeliest score 1-1.
Iraklis Yerolakkou shade it at 46%. Over 2.5 at 52%, likeliest score 1-1.
Digenis Morphou are clear favourites at 66%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 64%, likeliest score 1-2.
Too close to call: Halkanoras 41%, Spartakos Kitiou 33%. Over 2.5 at 54%, likeliest score 1-1.
PAEEK shade it at 57%. Over 2.5 at 56%, likeliest score 0-1.
Too close to call: ASIL Lysi 37%, Doxa 38%. Over 2.5 at 56%, likeliest score 1-1.
Ermis shade it at 42%. Over 2.5 at 49%, likeliest score 1-1.
Voluntari shade it at 43%. Over 2.5 at 47%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Argeş 37%, UTA Arad 35%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
FCSB shade it at 48%. Over 2.5 at 54%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Arsenal Česká Lípa 38%, Příbram 36%. Over 2.5 at 55%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Hanácká 39%, Viktoria Žižkov 35%. Over 2.5 at 52%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Honvéd 41%, Debrecen 34%. Both teams to score at 62%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Győri ETO 39%, Újpest 38%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Zalaegerszegi TE 41%, Várda SE 33%. Over 2.5 at 54%, likeliest score 1-1.
Šamorín shade it at 54%. Over 2.5 at 59%, likeliest score 1-1.
Galanta shade it at 54%. Both teams to score at 59%, likeliest score 1-1.
Tatran Prešov shade it at 51%. Both teams to score at 60%, likeliest score 1-1.
Tatran Prešov win undervalued
Our model flags a -10.78% value edge for an away victory. Tatran Prešov have won only 43% of their away games this season and managed just one win in their last five outings (three draws, one loss), yet the odds (1.62) imply a 61.73% chance, overstating their true chance.
Liptovský Mikuláš shade it at 47%. Both teams to score at 59%, likeliest score 1-1.
Vrchovina shade it at 47%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 68%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Vítkovice 40%, Zbrojovka Brno II 37%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 63%, likeliest score 1-1.
Frýdek-Místek shade it at 53%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 63%, likeliest score 1-2.
Hodonín-Šardice shade it at 46%. Over 2.5 at 55%, likeliest score 1-1.
Klagenfurter AC 1909 are clear favourites at 75%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 82%, likeliest score 3-1.
Safa shade it at 48%. Over 2.5 at 45%, likeliest score 1-0.
Neftçi shade it at 40%. Over 2.5 at 46%, likeliest score 1-1.
Buducnost Banovici are clear favourites at 64%. Over 2.5 at 52%, likeliest score 1-0.
Sloboda Tuzla shade it at 50%. Over 2.5 at 49%, likeliest score 1-1.
Treviso are clear favourites at 60%. Over 2.5 at 47%, likeliest score 1-0.
Alcione shade it at 43%. Over 2.5 at 44%, likeliest score 1-1.
Union Brescia shade it at 44%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 62%, likeliest score 1-1.
Inter U23 shade it at 47%. Over 2.5 at 43%, likeliest score 1-1.
Scafatese shade it at 48%. Over 2.5 at 47%, likeliest score 1-1.
Savoia shade it at 49%. Over 2.5 at 47%, likeliest score 1-1.
Over 2.5 Goals Overpriced
Our model rates the Over 2.5‑goals market at 46.8% while the odds imply 53.2%, giving a –6.37% value edge. Cosenza’s away games finish over 2.5 goals 80% of the time and Savoia’s home matches do so in 50% of outings. Both sides also post high BTTS rates (100% at Savoia’s ground, 60% for Cosenza away). The combination suggests a good chance of more than 2.5 goals, but the market is over‑priced, so betting this side is not value‑positive.
Too close to call: Atalanta II 36%, Campobasso 37%. Over 2.5 at 48%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Sambenedettese 32%, Livorno 39%. Over 2.5 at 42%, likeliest score 1-1.
Spezia are clear favourites at 65%. Over 2.5 at 50%, likeliest score 1-0.
Ravenna shade it at 53%. Over 2.5 at 49%, likeliest score 0-1.
Too close to call: Caldiero Terme 36%, Brusaporto 37%. Over 2.5 at 46%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Scanzorosciate 34%, Villa d'Almè 35%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
Nasaf shade it at 51%. Over 2.5 at 56%, likeliest score 1-1.
Malmö FF W are clear favourites at 60%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 63%, likeliest score 1-2.
Hammarby W are clear favourites at 81%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 71%, likeliest score 2-0.
Norrköping W are clear favourites at 72%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 67%, likeliest score 2-1.
Brommapojkarna W shade it at 44%. Over 2.5 at 52%, likeliest score 1-1.
Häcken shade it at 59%. Over 2.5 at 54%, likeliest score 1-0.
Sirius shade it at 48%. Both teams to score at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
Djurgården are clear favourites at 71%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 70%, likeliest score 2-1.
Too close to call: Kalmar 41%, Brommapojkarna 34%. Both teams to score at 59%, likeliest score 1-1.
Zbrojovka Brno shade it at 49%. Over 2.5 at 51%, likeliest score 1-1.
Sigma Olomouc are clear favourites at 63%. Over 2.5 at 49%, likeliest score 0-1.
Slovan Liberec shade it at 44%. Over 2.5 at 52%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Teplice 34%, SK Artis Brno 38%. Over 2.5 at 50%, likeliest score 1-1.
Slavia Praha are clear favourites at 61%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 64%, likeliest score 2-1.
Lokomotiva Zagreb shade it at 41%. Over 2.5 at 48%, likeliest score 1-1.
Varaždin shade it at 51%. Over 2.5 at 52%, likeliest score 1-1.
Kostinbrod are clear favourites at 69%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 60%, likeliest score 2-0.
LAC-Inter shade it at 59%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 66%, likeliest score 2-1.
Too close to call: Grazer AK W 39%, LUV Graz W 43%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 78%, likeliest score 1-2.
Zagora shade it at 49%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 68%, likeliest score 1-1.
Dugo Selo shade it at 46%. Both teams to score at 60%, likeliest score 1-1.
Inker shade it at 58%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 64%, likeliest score 1-2.
Solin are clear favourites at 63%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 64%, likeliest score 2-1.
Jarun shade it at 48%. Both teams to score at 59%, likeliest score 1-1.
Slavonija Pozega shade it at 49%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 62%, likeliest score 1-1.
Lučko shade it at 54%. Over 2.5 at 56%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Virtus Entella 39%, Mantova 33%. Over 2.5 at 50%, likeliest score 1-1.
Modena shade it at 50%. Over 2.5 at 50%, likeliest score 1-1.
Cremonese shade it at 43%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 62%, likeliest score 1-0.
Avellino shade it at 49%. Over 2.5 at 48%, likeliest score 1-1.
Südtirol shade it at 46%. Over 2.5 at 40%, likeliest score 1-0.
Catanzaro shade it at 42%. Over 2.5 at 47%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Arezzo 37%, Benevento 35%. Over 2.5 at 50%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Cagliari 34%, Bologna 37%. Over 2.5 at 42%, likeliest score 1-1.
Como are clear favourites at 63%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-0.
Napoli shade it at 43%. Over 2.5 at 56%, likeliest score 1-1.
Lazio are clear favourites at 62%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-0.
Hajduk Split II are clear favourites at 68%. Over 2.5 at 59%, likeliest score 2-0.
Paris W are clear favourites at 67%. Over 2.5 at 59%, likeliest score 0-2.
Too close to call: Fleury 91 W 36%, Toulouse W 37%. Over 2.5 at 51%, likeliest score 1-1.
Lens W shade it at 57%. Over 2.5 at 58%, likeliest score 1-1.
Nantes W shade it at 43%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-1.
OL Lyonnes W are clear favourites at 78%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 72%, likeliest score 3-0.
Monastir shade it at 47%. Both teams to score at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
Melfi shade it at 44%. Over 2.5 at 46%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Azam 36%, ZED FC 36%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
Réal Bamako shade it at 43%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 62%, likeliest score 1-0.
Too close to call: Al Ahli Tripoli 38%, Welwalo Adigrat Uni 34%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
Black Bulls Maputo shade it at 58%. Over 2.5 at 44%, likeliest score 1-0.
CS Sfaxien are clear favourites at 70%. Over 2.5 at 41%, likeliest score 1-0.
Domagnano are clear favourites at 85%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 73%, likeliest score 0-3.
Fiorentino shade it at 47%. Over 2.5 at 51%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Arka Gdynia 35%, Nieciecza 40%. Both teams to score at 62%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Unia Skierniewice 40%, Polonia Bytom 35%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 62%, likeliest score 1-1.
Stal Mielec shade it at 48%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
Lechia Gdańsk shade it at 48%. Over 2.5 at 54%, likeliest score 1-1.
Podbrezová shade it at 52%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 60%, likeliest score 1-2.
Slovan Bratislava shade it at 53%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 2-1.
Spartak Trnava shade it at 58%. Over 2.5 at 57%, likeliest score 1-2.
Dunajská Streda shade it at 49%. Over 2.5 at 56%, likeliest score 1-1.
Wacker Innsbruck shade it at 54%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 63%, likeliest score 1-1.
Liefering shade it at 44%. Both teams to score at 59%, likeliest score 1-1.
Aberystwyth Town shade it at 56%. Both teams to score at 58%, likeliest score 1-1.
Draw odds overpriced – avoid the stalemate
Our model flags a –6.13% edge on the draw, meaning the offered odds are not worth the risk. Both clubs rarely settle for a tie – the home side has drawn only 18% of its games overall and twice in its last five, while the visitors have drawn just 11% overall and once in their last five. The low draw frequency reinforces the negative value.
Pontardawe Town shade it at 45%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 71%, likeliest score 1-1.
Swansea University shade it at 59%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 82%, likeliest score 2-1.
Caersws shade it at 47%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 68%, likeliest score 1-1.
Bangor 1876 shade it at 49%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 68%, likeliest score 2-1.
Too close to call: Porthmadog 41%, Brickfield Rangers 36%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 63%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Buckley Town 42%, Holyhead Hotspur 37%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 73%, likeliest score 1-1.
Mold Alexandra shade it at 44%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 69%, likeliest score 1-1.
Home win +19% value edge
Our model rates a 34.8% chance of a Penrhyncoch win, which is 19.1% higher than the 15.7% implied by the 6.36 odds – a strong value edge. Penrhyncoch have yet to win any of their 11 league games, with a 0% overall win rate and just 0.8 goals per home match, underscoring how the market undervalues a potential upset.
Bala Town shade it at 51%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 62%, likeliest score 1-1.
Sliema Wanderers shade it at 44%. Over 2.5 at 49%, likeliest score 1-1.
Paderborn shade it at 44%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 66%, likeliest score 1-1.
FC Augsburg shade it at 46%. Over 2.5 at 54%, likeliest score 1-1.
RB Leipzig are clear favourites at 62%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 1-0.
FSV Mainz 05 shade it at 49%. Over 2.5 at 55%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: FC Köln 35%, Schalke 04 41%. Both teams to score at 59%, likeliest score 1-1.
Borussia Dortmund are clear favourites at 63%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 66%, likeliest score 2-1.
Pomorac shade it at 51%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 60%, likeliest score 1-1.
Newroz SC shade it at 44%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 60%, likeliest score 1-0.
Al-Karma shade it at 41%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 60%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Ghaz Al Shamal SC 37%, Naft Maysan 31%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 65%, likeliest score 1-1.
Bodø / Glimt are clear favourites at 76%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 66%, likeliest score 2-0.
Under 2.5 goals offers +14.6% edge
Our model shows a +14.61% value edge for Under 2.5 goals. The visitors average just 1.36 goals when playing away and only 55% of their away matches have exceeded 2.5 goals, indicating a tendency toward low‑scoring affairs.
Rosenborg shade it at 52%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 65%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Gefle 35%, FBK Karlstad 41%. Both teams to score at 59%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Sollentuna 35%, Vasalund 41%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 62%, likeliest score 1-1.
Stockholm Internazionale shade it at 55%. Over 2.5 at 48%, likeliest score 0-1.
Partizan are clear favourites at 62%. Over 2.5 at 56%, likeliest score 1-0.
Vojvodina shade it at 45%. Over 2.5 at 48%, likeliest score 1-1.
Donau shade it at 56%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 72%, likeliest score 2-1.
Lauterach shade it at 43%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 71%, likeliest score 1-1.
Hohenems shade it at 60%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 73%, likeliest score 2-1.
St. Mirren shade it at 43%. Both teams to score at 59%, likeliest score 1-1.
Rangers shade it at 59%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-0.
Dundee United shade it at 42%. Over 2.5 at 48%, likeliest score 1-1.
Falkirk shade it at 44%. Both teams to score at 62%, likeliest score 1-1.
Ross County are clear favourites at 60%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 67%, likeliest score 2-1.
Away win offers +8.2% value edge
Our model assigns an 8.24% value edge to an away victory (model rating 19.35% vs implied 11.11%). Airdrieonians have won all five recent head‑to‑head meetings and recorded three wins, one draw and only one loss in their last five games, extending a four‑match unbeaten run. This blend of direct dominance and a positive model edge makes the away win a compelling value bet.
Too close to call: Cove Rangers 39%, East Kilbride 38%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 63%, likeliest score 1-1.
Montrose shade it at 45%. Both teams to score at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
Hamilton Academical are clear favourites at 69%. Over 2.5 at 54%, likeliest score 1-0.
Home side on fire but odds too short
Our model rates a home win at 69.43% while the market implies 80%, giving a -10.57% value edge. Hamilton have won every home game this season (100% home win rate) and are on a five‑match winning streak, scoring 12 goals and conceding just 2 in their last five. The combination of a dominant home record and the negative value suggests the odds are overpriced.
Alloa Athletic shade it at 59%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 2-1.
Partick Thistle are clear favourites at 68%. Over 2.5 at 48%, likeliest score 1-0.
Ayr United shade it at 41%. Over 2.5 at 42%, likeliest score 1-1.
Dunfermline Athletic shade it at 55%. Over 2.5 at 47%, likeliest score 0-1.
Livingston are clear favourites at 62%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-0.
Raith Rovers shade it at 42%. Over 2.5 at 51%, likeliest score 1-1.
Sporting Charleroi shade it at 48%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-1.
OH Leuven shade it at 45%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 60%, likeliest score 1-1.
Westerlo shade it at 43%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 62%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: La Louvière 38%, Zulte-Waregem 36%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-1.
Coleraine are clear favourites at 63%. Over 2.5 at 60%, likeliest score 0-1.
Coleraine heavy favorites on the road
Our model shows a -17.95% edge for an away win, meaning the odds are too short. Coleraine have won every one of their away fixtures this season (100% away win rate) and have secured 4 wins in their last 5 matches, earning 12 points. Crusaders, by contrast, have only 1 away win and have lost 4 of their last 5, underscoring the strength of the away side despite market pricing.
Carrick Rangers shade it at 50%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 63%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Dungannon Swifts 39%, Cliftonville 36%. Both teams to score at 59%, likeliest score 1-1.
Glentoran shade it at 45%. Both teams to score at 58%, likeliest score 1-1.
Larne are clear favourites at 70%. Over 2.5 at 55%, likeliest score 0-2.
Too close to call: Caldas 32%, Mafra 38%. Over 2.5 at 41%, likeliest score 1-1.
Lusitano GC shade it at 41%. Over 2.5 at 42%, likeliest score 1-1.
Paredes shade it at 56%. Over 2.5 at 41%, likeliest score 1-0.
HPS W are clear favourites at 80%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 76%, likeliest score 3-0.
HJK W are clear favourites at 67%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 74%, likeliest score 2-1.
KuPS W shade it at 48%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 67%, likeliest score 2-1.
Stanway Rovers FC shade it at 47%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
Chatham Town shade it at 53%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
Draw appears over‑priced
Our model shows a -5.83% value gap for a draw, meaning the 3.6 odds overprice this result. Both clubs have recorded zero draws this season (home team 0% drawn, away team 0% drawn). In the last five head‑to‑head meetings there has been only one draw (20%). These facts suggest a draw is unlikely and the price is too high.
Too close to call: Maldon & Tiptree 37%, Dulwich Hamlet 41%. Both teams to score at 59%, likeliest score 1-1.
Hitchin Town shade it at 44%. Both teams to score at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
Racing Club Warwick shade it at 48%. Both teams to score at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
Real Bedford are clear favourites at 65%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 70%, likeliest score 1-2.
Draw offers hidden value
Our model rates a draw at only 19.2% while the odds imply 24.3%, giving a -5.0% value edge. Bishop's Stortford have not won in their last five (0‑4‑1 record, just one point) and Real Bedford, despite a perfect away win record, only produce BTTS in 40% of away games, suggesting they can be held to a low‑scoring stalemate.
Alvechurch shade it at 47%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-1.
Harborough Town are clear favourites at 60%. Over 2.5 at 59%, likeliest score 1-0.
Hednesford Town shade it at 52%. Over 2.5 at 54%, likeliest score 1-1.
Chorley shade it at 42%. Both teams to score at 58%, likeliest score 1-1.
Home win value +6.8% – Chorley strong at home
Our model shows a +6.8% edge for a Chorley home win (42.26% model rating vs 35.46% implied). Chorley have won 67% of their home games this season and have secured 3 victories in their last five fixtures, currently riding a three‑match winning streak. The combination of strong home win percentage and recent form backs the model’s confidence.
Macclesfield shade it at 49%. Both teams to score at 59%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Marine 36%, Oxford City 37%. Over 2.5 at 48%, likeliest score 1-1.
AFC Telford United shade it at 46%. Over 2.5 at 52%, likeliest score 1-1.
Darlington shade it at 48%. Over 2.5 at 55%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Brackley Town 40%, Radcliffe Borough 35%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-1.
King's Lynn Town shade it at 52%. Over 2.5 at 52%, likeliest score 1-0.
Merthyr Town shade it at 53%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 64%, likeliest score 2-1.
Scarborough Athletic shade it at 52%. Over 2.5 at 50%, likeliest score 1-1.
South Shields shade it at 57%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 64%, likeliest score 2-1.
Salisbury are clear favourites at 65%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 62%, likeliest score 2-0.
Farnham Town shade it at 49%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 66%, likeliest score 2-1.
Home win odds overvalued
Our model shows a -6.42% value edge for a Farnham Town win. Farnham have only a 33% win rate at home this season and are on a one‑match losing streak, while Braintree have struggled away with a 25% win rate. The market’s implied 55.6% probability exceeds our 49.1% rating, suggesting the price is too generous for the home side.
Too close to call: Hampton & Richmond 34%, Truro City 41%. Over 2.5 at 52%, likeliest score 1-1.
Horsham shade it at 53%. Over 2.5 at 59%, likeliest score 2-1.
Weston-super-Mare shade it at 45%. Over 2.5 at 54%, likeliest score 1-1.
Hemel Hempstead Town shade it at 55%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-1.
Folkestone Invicta shade it at 54%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 2-1.
Dagenham & Redbridge shade it at 58%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 2-1.
Too close to call: Torquay United 41%, Maidstone United 35%. Over 2.5 at 57%, likeliest score 1-1.
Dorking Wanderers are clear favourites at 62%. Over 2.5 at 59%, likeliest score 1-2.
Chelmsford City shade it at 46%. Over 2.5 at 48%, likeliest score 1-1.
Ebbsfleet United shade it at 55%. Over 2.5 at 54%, likeliest score 1-1.
Basingstoke Town shade it at 50%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 65%, likeliest score 1-1.
Lancaster City shade it at 46%. Both teams to score at 60%, likeliest score 1-1.
Home win odds overvalue Emley's chance
Our model rates Emley's win probability at 32.8% versus the market implied 40%, a -7.17% value gap. Emley have won just 17% of their home games this season and only 1 of their last 5 at home, scoring 6 goals in 6 matches. The combination shows the home win odds are overpriced.
NEOM SC are clear favourites at 60%. Over 2.5 at 58%, likeliest score 1-0.
Al Ettifaq shade it at 43%. Over 2.5 at 54%, likeliest score 1-1.
Al Taawoun shade it at 49%. Over 2.5 at 49%, likeliest score 1-1.
Excelsior Virton shade it at 44%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Jong KRC Genk U23 41%, Club NXT U23 35%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 66%, likeliest score 1-1.
KSC Lokeren shade it at 57%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 63%, likeliest score 2-1.
Too close to call: Siroki Brijeg 38%, Celik 33%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
Sarajevo are clear favourites at 60%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 63%, likeliest score 1-0.
Too close to call: Salthill Devon 40%, St. Francis 39%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 70%, likeliest score 1-1.
USM Khenchela shade it at 38%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 69%, likeliest score 0-0.
ASO Chlef shade it at 48%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 65%, likeliest score 1-0.
USM Alger shade it at 40%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 64%, likeliest score 1-1.
JS Saoura are clear favourites at 63%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 60%, likeliest score 1-0.
ES Sétif shade it at 53%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 65%, likeliest score 1-0.
Stjarnan shade it at 60%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 74%, likeliest score 2-1.
KA Akureyri shade it at 50%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 66%, likeliest score 2-1.
FH shade it at 55%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 67%, likeliest score 2-1.
KR Reykjavík shade it at 44%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 82%, likeliest score 1-2.
Away win offers +6% value
Our model assigns a +6.23% edge to an away victory, while Breidablik have collected 9 points from their last five matches, winning three and remaining unbeaten in the most recent two. Although they have not won a head‑to‑head encounter (0 away wins in five meetings), their current form suggests they can capitalize.
ÍA shade it at 55%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 69%, likeliest score 2-1.
Home win odds over‑priced
Our model rates a 55.1% chance for ÍA to win, while the 1.5 odds imply a 66.7% probability – a –11.6% value gap. ÍA have won 42% of their 12 home games this season and collected 10 points from their last five fixtures (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss). The odds therefore appear too short despite solid home form, suggesting caution on a home‑win bet.
Víkingur Reykjavík shade it at 59%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 73%, likeliest score 2-1.
Home win undervalued by >10%
Our model rates a Víkingur Reykjavík win at 59.12% while the market implies 69.44%, giving a -10.3% value edge. The hosts have won 69% of their home games this season and are unbeaten in their last five matches (3 wins, 2 draws), reinforcing the upside of backing the home side.
NorthEast United shade it at 48%. Over 2.5 at 50%, likeliest score 1-1.
Aveley shade it at 57%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 74%, likeliest score 2-1.
St Albans City are clear favourites at 68%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 67%, likeliest score 0-2.
Eastbourne Borough shade it at 48%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 67%, likeliest score 1-2.
Kettering Town shade it at 60%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 65%, likeliest score 2-1.
Banbury United shade it at 50%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 66%, likeliest score 1-2.
Loughborough University shade it at 48%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 64%, likeliest score 1-1.
Anstey Nomads shade it at 52%. Over 2.5 at 58%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Mickleover Sports 38%, Alfreton Town 41%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 62%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Redditch United 39%, Gloucester City 39%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 62%, likeliest score 1-1.
Avro shade it at 59%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 73%, likeliest score 2-1.
Curzon Ashton shade it at 51%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 67%, likeliest score 1-2.
Redcar Athletic shade it at 60%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 0-2.
Leek Town shade it at 46%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 66%, likeliest score 1-1.
Cleethorpes Town shade it at 49%. Over 2.5 at 56%, likeliest score 1-1.
Bury are clear favourites at 67%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 70%, likeliest score 2-1.
Guiseley shade it at 47%. Over 2.5 at 57%, likeliest score 1-1.
Bath City shade it at 45%. Over 2.5 at 60%, likeliest score 1-1.
Chichester City shade it at 46%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 71%, likeliest score 1-2.
Too close to call: Taunton Town 39%, Wimborne Town 38%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 62%, likeliest score 1-1.
Weymouth shade it at 55%. Over 2.5 at 57%, likeliest score 1-1.
Chertsey Town shade it at 52%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 66%, likeliest score 1-2.
Hashtag United are clear favourites at 78%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 78%, likeliest score 0-3.
Newmarket Town shade it at 52%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 72%, likeliest score 1-2.
Too close to call: Berkhamsted 41%, Cray Wanderers 37%. Over 2.5 at 59%, likeliest score 1-1.
Waltham Abbey shade it at 46%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 70%, likeliest score 1-1.
Needham Market are clear favourites at 65%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 68%, likeliest score 2-1.
Dartford shade it at 52%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 67%, likeliest score 2-1.
Al Arabi shade it at 49%. Over 2.5 at 49%, likeliest score 1-1.
Al Wihdat are clear favourites at 68%. Over 2.5 at 48%, likeliest score 0-1.
APEJES Academy shade it at 57%. Over 2.5 at 52%, likeliest score 0-1.
Unisport Bafang shade it at 54%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 71%, likeliest score 2-1.
MO Béjaïa are clear favourites at 66%. Over 2.5 at 47%, likeliest score 1-0.
Too close to call: CR Béni Thour 34%, USM Annaba 36%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 65%, likeliest score 0-0.
CA Batna shade it at 54%. Over 2.5 at 45%, likeliest score 1-0.
ESM Koléa shade it at 50%. Over 2.5 at 42%, likeliest score 1-0.
WA Mostaganem shade it at 58%. Over 2.5 at 49%, likeliest score 1-0.
NA Hussein Dey are clear favourites at 68%. Over 2.5 at 51%, likeliest score 1-0.
TransINVEST Vilnius shade it at 57%. Over 2.5 at 55%, likeliest score 1-0.
Too close to call: FC Dordrecht 40%, VVV-Venlo 38%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 66%, likeliest score 1-1.
Home win offers +7.5% value
Our model assigns a +7.55% edge to a Dordrecht victory. Despite a modest 40% home win rate this season, Dordrecht have won 4 of the last 5 meetings (80% of H2H) and the head‑to‑head games average 3.2 goals, underscoring their home dominance.
FC Utrecht shade it at 60%. Over 2.5 at 56%, likeliest score 1-0.
SC Cambuur shade it at 45%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-1.
ADO Den Haag shade it at 52%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 64%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Estrela Amadora 38%, Casa Pia 35%. Over 2.5 at 46%, likeliest score 1-1.
Alverca shade it at 44%. Over 2.5 at 45%, likeliest score 1-1.
Porto shade it at 52%. Over 2.5 at 50%, likeliest score 1-1.
Al-Arabi SC shade it at 44%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 67%, likeliest score 1-1.
Al Duhail shade it at 54%. Both teams to score at 58%, likeliest score 1-1.
Al Salmiyah are clear favourites at 64%. Over 2.5 at 51%, likeliest score 1-0.
Al Sahel shade it at 42%. Over 2.5 at 54%, likeliest score 1-1.
ÍF shade it at 48%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 80%, likeliest score 2-2.
Dinamo Batumi shade it at 46%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 60%, likeliest score 1-1.
Alashkert shade it at 56%. Over 2.5 at 48%, likeliest score 0-1.
Too close to call: Hartberg 38%, Wolfsberger AC 38%. Both teams to score at 59%, likeliest score 1-1.
Grazer AK shade it at 43%. Over 2.5 at 51%, likeliest score 1-1.
SK Rapid are clear favourites at 64%. Over 2.5 at 55%, likeliest score 1-0.
EBK W are clear favourites at 63%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 73%, likeliest score 2-1.
Houtvenne shade it at 43%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 63%, likeliest score 1-1.
Dessel Sport shade it at 48%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 77%, likeliest score 2-1.
RWDM Brussels shade it at 42%. Over 2.5 at 56%, likeliest score 1-1.
OC Charleroi shade it at 55%. Over 2.5 at 57%, likeliest score 1-1.
Roeselare Daisel shade it at 49%. Both teams to score at 58%, likeliest score 1-1.
KSK Heist shade it at 54%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 69%, likeliest score 1-2.
Olympiakos shade it at 43%. Over 2.5 at 52%, likeliest score 1-1.
Anorthosis shade it at 54%. Over 2.5 at 49%, likeliest score 1-0.
Standard Liège II W shade it at 56%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 66%, likeliest score 2-1.
Deportiva Minera shade it at 50%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 63%, likeliest score 1-0.
Too close to call: Intercity 39%, Castellonense 32%. Over 2.5 at 42%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Orihuela 41%, Valencia II 34%. Over 2.5 at 52%, likeliest score 1-1.
Numancia shade it at 47%. Over 2.5 at 43%, likeliest score 1-1.
RSD Alcalá shade it at 44%. Over 2.5 at 49%, likeliest score 1-1.
Gimnástica Segoviana shade it at 51%. Over 2.5 at 43%, likeliest score 1-0.
Too close to call: Atlético Paso 32%, Real Ávila 39%. Over 2.5 at 46%, likeliest score 1-1.
Real Betis II shade it at 45%. Over 2.5 at 49%, likeliest score 1-1.
Don Benito are clear favourites at 62%. Over 2.5 at 48%, likeliest score 1-0.
Recreativo Huelva are clear favourites at 64%. Over 2.5 at 49%, likeliest score 1-0.
Union Estepona shade it at 40%. Over 2.5 at 46%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Manresa 33%, CD Ebro 38%. Over 2.5 at 41%, likeliest score 1-1.
Logroñés II shade it at 57%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 0-1.
Too close to call: CD Tudelano 37%, Barbastro 33%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 60%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Peña Sport 39%, Reddis 32%. Over 2.5 at 46%, likeliest score 1-1.
Rahimo FC shade it at 53%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 66%, likeliest score 1-0.
Too close to call: CFFEB 32%, ASFA Yennega 35%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 69%, likeliest score 0-0.
Shelbourne W shade it at 48%. Over 2.5 at 57%, likeliest score 1-1.
Athlone Town WFC W are clear favourites at 95%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 81%, likeliest score 3-0.
Wexford Youths W are clear favourites at 65%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 64%, likeliest score 2-1.
Peamount United W shade it at 48%. Both teams to score at 59%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Bohemians WFC W 39%, Shamrock Rovers W 38%. Both teams to score at 59%, likeliest score 1-1.
Hapoel Tel Aviv shade it at 47%. Over 2.5 at 47%, likeliest score 1-1.
Ironi Kiryat Shmona shade it at 46%. Over 2.5 at 46%, likeliest score 1-1.
Maccabi Netanya shade it at 53%. Over 2.5 at 55%, likeliest score 1-1.
Maccabi Petah Tikva shade it at 49%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-1.
Maccabi Tel Aviv are clear favourites at 65%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 60%, likeliest score 2-1.
Servette shade it at 56%. Over 2.5 at 60%, likeliest score 2-1.
Too close to call: Zürich 41%, Luzern 37%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 67%, likeliest score 1-1.
Over 2.5 Goals – high value edge
Our model rates the chance of more than 2.5 goals at 67.2%, while the market odds imply a 75.2% probability, creating a –7.99% value edge. Zürich’s matches have gone over 2.5 goals in every home game this season (100%) and Luzern does so in 80% of its away fixtures. The last five head‑to‑head meetings averaged 3.6 goals and three of those games exceeded 2.5. All signs point to a high‑scoring encounter.
Young Boys shade it at 50%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 62%, likeliest score 1-1.
Under 2.5 Goals +11.6% value
Our model shows a +11.62% edge for an Under 2.5‑goal result (model rating 37.80% vs implied 26.18%). Young Boys average 3.30 goals per game but only 2.40 conceded at home, while St Gallen score just 1.70 per match and have a 60% rate of over‑2.5 goals in their away games. In their last five meetings, four matches exceeded 2.5 goals, leaving one low‑scoring game – supporting the market’s undervaluation of the under.
Progrès Niedercorn are clear favourites at 69%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 66%, likeliest score 0-2.
Aarau shade it at 50%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 65%, likeliest score 2-1.
Too close to call: Iraklis 1908 FC 40%, Kifisia 32%. Over 2.5 at 45%, likeliest score 1-1.
Asteras Tripolis shade it at 46%. Over 2.5 at 44%, likeliest score 1-1.
AEK Athens are clear favourites at 75%. Over 2.5 at 58%, likeliest score 2-0.
ES Tunis are clear favourites at 71%. Over 2.5 at 54%, likeliest score 2-0.
Zamalek shade it at 58%. Over 2.5 at 48%, likeliest score 1-0.
Al Merreikh are clear favourites at 62%. Over 2.5 at 49%, likeliest score 1-0.
RSB Berkane are clear favourites at 66%. Over 2.5 at 43%, likeliest score 1-0.
Al-Hidd shade it at 46%. Both teams to score at 59%, likeliest score 1-1.
Al Ahli shade it at 49%. Over 2.5 at 43%, likeliest score 1-1.
River Plate shade it at 47%. Over 2.5 at 46%, likeliest score 1-1.
Plaza Colonia shade it at 45%. Over 2.5 at 43%, likeliest score 1-1.
Manta shade it at 42%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 64%, likeliest score 1-0.
Orense shade it at 52%. Over 2.5 at 45%, likeliest score 1-0.
LDU Quito shade it at 50%. Over 2.5 at 47%, likeliest score 1-1.
Nashville SC shade it at 47%. Over 2.5 at 54%, likeliest score 1-1.
Columbus Crew shade it at 60%. Over 2.5 at 57%, likeliest score 1-0.
Inter Miami shade it at 47%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 62%, likeliest score 1-1.
Sport Huancayo shade it at 58%. Both teams to score at 59%, likeliest score 2-1.
Cusco FC shade it at 47%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-1.
Kfar Saba 1928 shade it at 43%. Both teams to score at 58%, likeliest score 1-1.
Arsenal de Sarandí are clear favourites at 62%. Over 2.5 at 42%, likeliest score 1-0.
Excursionistas shade it at 38%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 68%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Deportivo Laferrere 34%, Comunicaciones 34%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 64%, likeliest score 0-0.
Richelle United are clear favourites at 65%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 64%, likeliest score 2-1.
Tempo Overijse shade it at 48%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 73%, likeliest score 1-2.
Too close to call: Almagro 31%, Tristán Suárez 35%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 72%, likeliest score 0-0.
Quilmes Atlético Club shade it at 49%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 68%, likeliest score 1-0.
Club Ferro Carril Oeste shade it at 54%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 67%, likeliest score 1-0.
Deportivo Madryn are clear favourites at 63%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 1-0.
CE Casa de Portugal shade it at 52%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 78%, likeliest score 1-2.
UCD shade it at 51%. Both teams to score at 60%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Kerry 35%, Bray Wanderers 40%. Over 2.5 at 52%, likeliest score 1-1.
Lens shade it at 49%. Both teams to score at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
Xelajú shade it at 45%. Over 2.5 at 43%, likeliest score 1-1.
Ferroviária shade it at 44%. Over 2.5 at 41%, likeliest score 1-1.
Patriotas Boyacá shade it at 50%. Over 2.5 at 47%, likeliest score 1-0.
Real Cartagena shade it at 44%. Over 2.5 at 51%, likeliest score 1-1.
Real Cundinamarca shade it at 43%. Over 2.5 at 44%, likeliest score 1-1.
Unión Magdalena are clear favourites at 66%. Over 2.5 at 52%, likeliest score 1-0.
Deportes Quindío shade it at 55%. Over 2.5 at 43%, likeliest score 1-0.
Bogotá shade it at 52%. Over 2.5 at 48%, likeliest score 1-0.
Too close to call: Itagüí Leones 37%, Orsomarso 33%. Over 2.5 at 43%, likeliest score 1-1.
Loudoun United shade it at 54%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 64%, likeliest score 1-1.
Charleston Battery are clear favourites at 70%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 67%, likeliest score 2-1.
Too close to call: Monagas 34%, Academia Puerto Cabello 38%. Over 2.5 at 42%, likeliest score 1-1.
O'Higgins are clear favourites at 72%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 60%, likeliest score 2-0.
Ñublense shade it at 41%. Over 2.5 at 50%, likeliest score 1-1.
Universidad Católica shade it at 48%. Over 2.5 at 54%, likeliest score 1-1.
Colo-Colo shade it at 49%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 60%, likeliest score 1-2.
Too close to call: Univ. Concepción 38%, Deportes Limache 38%. Over 2.5 at 55%, likeliest score 1-1.
Colegiales shade it at 57%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 62%, likeliest score 1-0.
Ciudad de Bolívar shade it at 42%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 69%, likeliest score 1-0.
Almirante Brown shade it at 38%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 72%, likeliest score 0-0.
Estudiantes de Buenos Aires shade it at 57%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 65%, likeliest score 1-0.
Gimnasia Jujuy shade it at 52%. Over 2.5 at 46%, likeliest score 1-0.
Temperley shade it at 55%. Over 2.5 at 41%, likeliest score 1-0.
Patronato are clear favourites at 61%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 1-0.
Racing de Córdoba shade it at 49%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 69%, likeliest score 1-0.
Central Norte de Salta shade it at 40%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 69%, likeliest score 1-0.
Deportivo Maipú are clear favourites at 68%. Over 2.5 at 46%, likeliest score 1-0.
Godoy Cruz shade it at 40%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 67%, likeliest score 0-1.
Midland shade it at 55%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 63%, likeliest score 1-0.
Louisville City shade it at 59%. Over 2.5 at 54%, likeliest score 1-0.
Pittsburgh Riverhounds shade it at 49%. Over 2.5 at 47%, likeliest score 1-0.
Too close to call: Hartford Athletic 36%, Rhode Island 39%. Over 2.5 at 54%, likeliest score 1-1.
Tampa Bay Rowdies are clear favourites at 79%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 67%, likeliest score 2-0.
San Antonio shade it at 53%. Over 2.5 at 57%, likeliest score 2-1.
Colorado Springs shade it at 59%. Over 2.5 at 55%, likeliest score 1-0.
El Paso Locomotive shade it at 58%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 2-1.
Sacramento Republic shade it at 54%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Monterey Bay 37%, Las Vegas Lights 38%. Both teams to score at 59%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Phoenix Rising 38%, Lexington 37%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 62%, likeliest score 1-1.
Toluca shade it at 44%. Both teams to score at 60%, likeliest score 1-1.
Monterrey shade it at 42%. Over 2.5 at 52%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Pumas UNAM 38%, Tigres UANL 36%. Over 2.5 at 47%, likeliest score 1-1.
Atlas shade it at 44%. Over 2.5 at 50%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Venados 34%, Durango 39%. Both teams to score at 59%, likeliest score 1-1.
Durango on a 5‑game unbeaten run
Our model shows a +6.83% edge for an away win. Durango have won four of their last five matches and are unbeaten in five, with a 43% win rate in away games this season. They concede just 0.43 goals per away match and have scored 12 goals in five recent outings, underscoring strong form and defensive solidity.
Too close to call: Mineros de Zacatecas 42%, Universidad Guadalajara 34%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 62%, likeliest score 1-1.
Jaiba Brava shade it at 51%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 62%, likeliest score 1-1.
Tlaxcala shade it at 53%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 67%, likeliest score 2-1.
Under 2.5 Goals – odds too short
Our model shows a -10.79% value gap for Under 2.5 goals (model rating 32.69% vs implied 43.48%). Both sides exceed 2.5 goals in most matches – Tlaxcala’s home games go over 2.5 goals 83% of the time and Correcaminos hit the mark in 100% of their away fixtures. In the last five games each team recorded four and three over‑2‑goal matches respectively, confirming a low chance of a sub‑2.5 result.
Too close to call: Tapatío 33%, Morelia 41%. Both teams to score at 62%, likeliest score 1-1.
Pachuca W are clear favourites at 97%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 92%, likeliest score 3-0.
América W are clear favourites at 80%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 75%, likeliest score 0-2.
Juárez W are clear favourites at 82%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 67%, likeliest score 2-0.
Toluca W shade it at 47%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 67%, likeliest score 1-2.
América de Cali are clear favourites at 73%. Over 2.5 at 55%, likeliest score 2-0.
Once Caldas are clear favourites at 72%. Over 2.5 at 57%, likeliest score 2-0.
Too close to call: Fortaleza CEIF 32%, Deportivo Cali 38%. Over 2.5 at 44%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Alianza Petrolera 38%, Internacional de Bogotá 33%. Over 2.5 at 44%, likeliest score 1-1.
Atlético Nacional shade it at 57%. Both teams to score at 58%, likeliest score 2-1.
Too close to call: Wellington Phoenix W 40%, Melbourne Victory W 36%. Over 2.5 at 51%, likeliest score 1-1.
Melbourne City W are clear favourites at 71%. Over 2.5 at 55%, likeliest score 0-2.
Orlando City shade it at 50%. Both teams to score at 59%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: DC United 37%, Cincinnati 39%. Both teams to score at 59%, likeliest score 1-1.
Chicago Fire shade it at 43%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 63%, likeliest score 1-1.
Philadelphia Union shade it at 59%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 2-1.
Dallas shade it at 44%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-1.
Houston Dynamo shade it at 45%. Both teams to score at 58%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Sporting KC 38%, Austin 38%. Both teams to score at 59%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Colorado Rapids 36%, Vancouver Whitecaps 37%. Over 2.5 at 50%, likeliest score 1-1.
Real Salt Lake shade it at 44%. Both teams to score at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
Portland Timbers shade it at 54%. Both teams to score at 59%, likeliest score 1-1.
Portland Home Win Edge
Our model shows a +5.03% edge for a Portland home victory. Portland have won 47% of their home games this season, while Charlotte have not beaten Portland in either of their two recent meetings (both 2‑0 wins for Charlotte). The contrast suggests the market may be undervaluing Portland's home edge.
San Diego shade it at 48%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 63%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Caracas 37%, Deportivo Táchira 37%. Over 2.5 at 47%, likeliest score 1-1.
Carabobo shade it at 50%. Over 2.5 at 44%, likeliest score 0-1.
Deportivo La Guaira shade it at 43%. Over 2.5 at 45%, likeliest score 1-1.
Santos shade it at 46%. Over 2.5 at 50%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Puntarenas 33%, Inter San Carlos 40%. Over 2.5 at 46%, likeliest score 1-1.
Herediano shade it at 48%. Over 2.5 at 51%, likeliest score 1-1.
Deportivo Saprissa shade it at 48%. Over 2.5 at 42%, likeliest score 0-1.
Comunicaciones shade it at 50%. Over 2.5 at 45%, likeliest score 1-0.
Guastatoya are clear favourites at 62%. Over 2.5 at 47%, likeliest score 1-0.
Cobán Imperial are clear favourites at 68%. Over 2.5 at 49%, likeliest score 1-0.
San Pedro are clear favourites at 71%. Over 2.5 at 52%, likeliest score 1-0.
Suchitepéquez are clear favourites at 62%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-0.
Rosario Central shade it at 55%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 62%, likeliest score 1-0.
Belgrano shade it at 47%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 66%, likeliest score 0-1.
Too close to call: Independiente 32%, Boca Juniors 39%. Over 2.5 at 40%, likeliest score 1-1.
River Plate shade it at 54%. Over 2.5 at 50%, likeliest score 1-0.
Universitario are clear favourites at 69%. Over 2.5 at 56%, likeliest score 2-0.
Too close to call: Comerciantes Unidos 38%, Cienciano 36%. Over 2.5 at 49%, likeliest score 1-1.
Alianza Lima shade it at 47%. Over 2.5 at 42%, likeliest score 0-1.
Sport Boys shade it at 56%. Over 2.5 at 52%, likeliest score 1-0.
Deportivo Garcilaso are clear favourites at 66%. Over 2.5 at 58%, likeliest score 2-0.
Angel City W shade it at 52%. Over 2.5 at 55%, likeliest score 1-1.
Gotham FC W shade it at 51%. Over 2.5 at 56%, likeliest score 1-1.
Kansas City Current W shade it at 46%. Both teams to score at 60%, likeliest score 1-1.
San Diego Wave W shade it at 59%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 63%, likeliest score 2-1.
Plaza Amador shade it at 49%. Over 2.5 at 49%, likeliest score 1-1.
San Francisco are clear favourites at 68%. Over 2.5 at 54%, likeliest score 0-1.
Sporting San Miguelito shade it at 40%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
Wellington Phoenix shade it at 49%. Both teams to score at 59%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Sydney 37%, Adelaide United 37%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-1.
Ryazan are clear favourites at 61%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 0-1.
Arsenal Tula II are clear favourites at 60%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Strogino 34%, Rotor-2 42%. Over 2.5 at 58%, likeliest score 1-1.
South Hobart shade it at 44%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 70%, likeliest score 1-2.
Bayswater City are clear favourites at 64%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 66%, likeliest score 1-2.
Suwon Bluewings shade it at 59%. Over 2.5 at 55%, likeliest score 0-1.
Busan I'Park shade it at 50%. Over 2.5 at 46%, likeliest score 1-0.
Both Teams to Score – Hidden Edge
Our model rates Both Teams to Score at 48.86% while the market implies 54.64%, giving a -5.78% value edge. Busan hits BTTS in 64% of its games and Gyeongnam in 56%, and the recent five head‑to‑head meetings produced BTTS three times, indicating the pattern may persist.
Suwon shade it at 52%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-1.
Hwaseong shade it at 41%. Over 2.5 at 44%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Cheongju 37%, Yongin City 36%. Over 2.5 at 52%, likeliest score 1-1.
Cheonan City shade it at 56%. Over 2.5 at 48%, likeliest score 1-0.
Over 2.5 goals undervalued
Our model flags a –6.92% value edge for Over 2.5 goals (model rating 47.72% vs implied 54.64%). While Cheonan’s home games have gone over 2.5 goals in only 23% of matches, Ansan’s away fixtures exceed 2.5 goals in half of their outings and 64% of all their games this season. The contrast suggests the market is over‑pricing the under‑2.5 line.
Too close to call: Nagoya Grampus 39%, Yokohama F. Marinos 33%. Over 2.5 at 48%, likeliest score 1-1.
Cerezo Osaka shade it at 49%. Over 2.5 at 50%, likeliest score 1-1.
Urawa Reds shade it at 55%. Over 2.5 at 51%, likeliest score 1-0.
Home win lacks value despite strong Reds
The model rates a Urawa victory at 55.19%, but the 1.6 odds translate to a 62.5% implied probability, creating a -7.31% value gap. Urawa have won 60% of their home games and enjoy a perfect 100% BTTS and over‑2.5‑goals record at home, yet the market over‑prices the win. The odds are not worth the risk.
FC Tokyo shade it at 56%. Over 2.5 at 54%, likeliest score 1-1.
Kawasaki Frontale shade it at 49%. Both teams to score at 58%, likeliest score 1-1.
Sagan Tosu shade it at 51%. Over 2.5 at 47%, likeliest score 1-0.
Tegevajaro Miyazaki shade it at 48%. Over 2.5 at 51%, likeliest score 1-1.
Kataller Toyama shade it at 48%. Both teams to score at 60%, likeliest score 1-1.
Home win offers hidden value
Our model rates a home win at 49.32% versus an implied 58.14% from the 1.72 odds, creating an –8.8% value edge. Kataller has won only 17% of its home games this season and just one win in six home fixtures, indicating the market may be over‑valuing the home side.
Oita Trinita shade it at 54%. Over 2.5 at 49%, likeliest score 1-0.
Draw looks overpriced – avoid it
Our model flags the draw as -5.60% value versus the current odds. Oita have drawn only a third of their home games this season and Ventforet have not drawn any away fixtures. In the last five matches Oita managed just one draw while Kofu had none, making a stalemate unlikely.
Vegalta Sendai shade it at 53%. Over 2.5 at 49%, likeliest score 0-1.
Blaublitz Akita shade it at 42%. Over 2.5 at 42%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Iwaki 38%, Júbilo Iwata 34%. Over 2.5 at 46%, likeliest score 1-1.
Shonan Bellmare shade it at 48%. Over 2.5 at 51%, likeliest score 1-1.
Beijing BG Phoenix W are clear favourites at 60%. Over 2.5 at 41%, likeliest score 1-0.
Too close to call: Persita 39%, Bali United 36%. Both teams to score at 60%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Arema 33%, Dewa United 41%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-1.
Persib shade it at 42%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-1.
Dinamo Vologda shade it at 58%. Over 2.5 at 60%, likeliest score 1-2.
Too close to call: Kosmos Dolgoprudny 37%, Torpedo Vladimir 35%. Over 2.5 at 46%, likeliest score 1-1.
Tver are clear favourites at 71%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 63%, likeliest score 2-0.
Luki-Energiya shade it at 51%. Over 2.5 at 49%, likeliest score 0-1.
Murom shade it at 58%. Over 2.5 at 49%, likeliest score 1-0.
Afumaţi shade it at 47%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-1.
Chindia Târgovişte shade it at 59%. Over 2.5 at 59%, likeliest score 2-1.
Too close to call: Viitorul Şelimbăr 38%, ASA Târgu Mureş 35%. Over 2.5 at 46%, likeliest score 1-1.
Hubei Istar shade it at 45%. Over 2.5 at 43%, likeliest score 1-1.
Shenzhen 2028 shade it at 42%. Over 2.5 at 41%, likeliest score 1-1.
Guangdong Mingtu shade it at 51%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 63%, likeliest score 1-0.
Haimen Codion shade it at 54%. Over 2.5 at 41%, likeliest score 1-0.
Slavia Praha B shade it at 48%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
Uničov shade it at 45%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
Hranice shade it at 44%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 60%, likeliest score 1-1.
Zlín II shade it at 56%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 65%, likeliest score 2-1.
Sigma Olomouc B shade it at 60%. Over 2.5 at 59%, likeliest score 0-1.
SK Artis Brno II are clear favourites at 68%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 70%, likeliest score 2-1.
Jablonec II shade it at 43%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 66%, likeliest score 1-1.
Sparta Praha B shade it at 59%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 67%, likeliest score 2-1.
Banik Sous shade it at 46%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 63%, likeliest score 1-1.
Sokol Zápy are clear favourites at 62%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 71%, likeliest score 2-1.
Zlaté Moravce shade it at 53%. Both teams to score at 58%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Žilina II 41%, Lokomotíva Zvolen 34%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 60%, likeliest score 1-1.
Inter Bratislava shade it at 41%. Both teams to score at 60%, likeliest score 1-1.
TSV Sasel shade it at 49%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 74%, likeliest score 1-2.
Too close to call: Buchholz 39%, HT16 43%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 80%, likeliest score 1-2.
Dnepr Mogilev shade it at 52%. Over 2.5 at 50%, likeliest score 0-1.
Slavia shade it at 49%. Over 2.5 at 44%, likeliest score 1-0.
Neman Grodno shade it at 43%. Over 2.5 at 42%, likeliest score 1-1.
Ural shade it at 54%. Over 2.5 at 47%, likeliest score 0-1.
Too close to call: Volga Ulyanovsk 37%, Veles 33%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 62%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Neftekhimik 40%, Leningradets 33%. Over 2.5 at 43%, likeliest score 1-1.
Lokomotiv Kyiv shade it at 48%. Over 2.5 at 45%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Inhulets' Petrove 36%, Kolos Kovalivka II 38%. Over 2.5 at 50%, likeliest score 1-1.
Kulykiv shade it at 51%. Over 2.5 at 46%, likeliest score 0-1.
Too close to call: Real Murcia II 34%, Lorca Deportiva 39%. Over 2.5 at 46%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: UCAM Murcia 36%, Cieza 33%. Over 2.5 at 42%, likeliest score 1-1.
La Nucia shade it at 43%. Over 2.5 at 48%, likeliest score 1-1.
Poblense shade it at 52%. Over 2.5 at 47%, likeliest score 1-0.
Atlético Baleares shade it at 57%. Over 2.5 at 50%, likeliest score 1-0.
Mallorca II are clear favourites at 60%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 63%, likeliest score 2-1.
Penya Encarnada shade it at 56%. Over 2.5 at 50%, likeliest score 1-0.
Too close to call: Atlètic Club d'Escaldes 34%, Ranger's 40%. Over 2.5 at 51%, likeliest score 1-1.
Ordino are clear favourites at 74%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 64%, likeliest score 2-1.
FC Santa Coloma shade it at 45%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 62%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Elva 42%, Levadia II 37%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 71%, likeliest score 2-1.
Too close to call: Pendikspor 35%, Kayserispor 37%. Over 2.5 at 47%, likeliest score 1-1.
Home win offers +11% value
Our model rates Pendikspor’s chance at 35.21% while the market implies only 24.1%, giving a +11.11% edge. Pendikspor have won just one of five home games (20% home win rate) and Kayserispor, despite an 83% away win record, are priced at 1.78, suggesting the market undervalues the home side.
Too close to call: Batman Petrolspor 37%, Esenler Erokspor 35%. Over 2.5 at 51%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Antalyaspor 38%, Bodrum FK 35%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Keçiörengücü 33%, Bursaspor 39%. Over 2.5 at 52%, likeliest score 1-1.
Bursaspor's strong away form vs over‑priced odds
Our model rates the away win at 38.95% versus an implied 48.54% from the 2.06 odds, giving a –9.59% value edge, meaning the market overvalues Bursaspor. Bursaspor have won 83% of their away games and average 2.00 goals away, plus they have secured 2 of the last 5 head‑to‑head encounters as the away side. The combination suggests the odds may be too generous.
ASA W shade it at 56%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 66%, likeliest score 1-2.
Getafe II shade it at 46%. Over 2.5 at 43%, likeliest score 1-1.
Albacete II shade it at 49%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-1.
Real Madrid III shade it at 51%. Over 2.5 at 43%, likeliest score 1-0.
Guadalajara shade it at 50%. Both teams to score at 59%, likeliest score 1-1.
Talavera CF shade it at 44%. Over 2.5 at 45%, likeliest score 1-1.
Sevilla II shade it at 50%. Over 2.5 at 48%, likeliest score 1-1.
Club Atlético Central shade it at 48%. Over 2.5 at 44%, likeliest score 1-0.
Sanluqueño shade it at 47%. Over 2.5 at 49%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Puente Genil 31%, CD Badajoz 38%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 66%, likeliest score 1-1.
Xerez shade it at 49%. Over 2.5 at 40%, likeliest score 1-0.
Lokomotiv Moskva shade it at 41%. Over 2.5 at 49%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: CSKA Moskva 40%, Spartak Moskva 35%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-1.
Zenit are clear favourites at 76%. Over 2.5 at 52%, likeliest score 2-0.
Auda are clear favourites at 63%. Over 2.5 at 57%, likeliest score 0-1.
FC Daugavpils shade it at 51%. Over 2.5 at 54%, likeliest score 0-1.
Rīgas FS are clear favourites at 80%. Over 2.5 at 59%, likeliest score 0-2.
Under 2.5 goals offers +7.5% edge
Our model puts the chance of fewer than 2.5 goals at 40.8%, while the 3.0 odds translate to only 33.3% implied probability – a +7.5% value edge. Both clubs exceed 2.5 goals in just over half of their games (56% at Super Nova’s home, 50% in Rīgas FS away matches), indicating a realistic chance of a low‑scoring affair.
Irtysh shade it at 52%. Over 2.5 at 46%, likeliest score 0-1.
Too close to call: Aktobe 40%, Kairat 33%. Over 2.5 at 51%, likeliest score 1-1.
Astana are clear favourites at 73%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 65%, likeliest score 2-0.
Too close to call: Wuxi Wugou 34%, Shaanxi Union FC 39%. Over 2.5 at 49%, likeliest score 1-1.
Jiangxi Dingnan United shade it at 45%. Over 2.5 at 50%, likeliest score 1-1.
Guangzhou E-Power FC are clear favourites at 64%. Over 2.5 at 54%, likeliest score 1-0.
Odra Opole shade it at 44%. Over 2.5 at 47%, likeliest score 1-1.
Ruch Chorzów shade it at 52%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 60%, likeliest score 2-1.
Podbeskidzie shade it at 58%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 63%, likeliest score 2-1.
Znicz Pruszków shade it at 43%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
GKS Tychy shade it at 43%. Both teams to score at 58%, likeliest score 1-1.
Bukovyna Chernivtsi shade it at 49%. Over 2.5 at 49%, likeliest score 1-1.
Karpaty shade it at 56%. Over 2.5 at 43%, likeliest score 0-1.
Too close to call: AVS 33%, Tondela 38%. Over 2.5 at 42%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Felgueiras 1932 37%, Lusitania FC Lourosa 33%. Over 2.5 at 41%, likeliest score 1-1.
União de Leiria shade it at 57%. Over 2.5 at 49%, likeliest score 0-1.
Şamaxı FK shade it at 45%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 64%, likeliest score 0-1.
Too close to call: Sabah 39%, Qarabağ 36%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-1.
Alcorcón shade it at 54%. Over 2.5 at 47%, likeliest score 1-0.
Real Jaén shade it at 41%. Over 2.5 at 50%, likeliest score 1-1.
Villarreal II shade it at 57%. Over 2.5 at 44%, likeliest score 1-0.
Too close to call: Algeciras 36%, Real Madrid II 33%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 63%, likeliest score 1-1.
Gimnàstic Tarragona shade it at 40%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 60%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Dangkor Senchey 40%, Angkor Tiger 37%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 66%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Boeung Ket 37%, Naga World 39%. Both teams to score at 59%, likeliest score 1-1.
12 Bingölspor shade it at 53%. Over 2.5 at 54%, likeliest score 1-1.
Dinamo Stavropol' shade it at 42%. Over 2.5 at 43%, likeliest score 1-1.
Wieczysta Kraków shade it at 45%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
Jagiellonia Białystok shade it at 46%. Both teams to score at 59%, likeliest score 1-1.
Legia Warszawa shade it at 43%. Both teams to score at 60%, likeliest score 1-1.
Lech Poznań road win value edge
Our model flags a -8.45% value edge for an away win, meaning the market overprices Legia. Lech Poznań have won 80% of all games and 75% of their away fixtures this season, with three wins in their last five and a three‑match unbeaten run. In the last five head‑to‑heads they have already secured two away victories, matching Legia’s record.
Rukh Vynnyky shade it at 46%. Over 2.5 at 54%, likeliest score 1-1.
Excelsior shade it at 42%. Both teams to score at 59%, likeliest score 1-1.
NEC Nijmegen shade it at 52%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
PSV shade it at 52%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 74%, likeliest score 2-1.
Ajax shade it at 57%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 63%, likeliest score 1-2.
AZ Alkmaar shade it at 46%. Over 2.5 at 54%, likeliest score 1-1.
Renate shade it at 40%. Over 2.5 at 43%, likeliest score 1-1.
Trento Calcio 1921 shade it at 52%. Over 2.5 at 47%, likeliest score 1-0.
Calcio Desenzano shade it at 47%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 64%, likeliest score 1-0.
Too close to call: Pergolettese 39%, Lumezzane 31%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
Arzignano Valchiampo shade it at 39%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Pro Vercelli 33%, Ospitaletto 37%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 60%, likeliest score 1-1.
Lecco shade it at 39%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
Monopoli shade it at 41%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 60%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Foggia 35%, Cavese 34%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 64%, likeliest score 1-1.
Catania are clear favourites at 74%. Over 2.5 at 52%, likeliest score 1-0.
Inter are clear favourites at 66%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 64%, likeliest score 2-1.
Genoa shade it at 45%. Over 2.5 at 54%, likeliest score 1-1.
Atalanta shade it at 53%. Both teams to score at 59%, likeliest score 1-1.
Juventus shade it at 58%. Over 2.5 at 45%, likeliest score 0-1.
AC Milan shade it at 49%. Over 2.5 at 48%, likeliest score 0-1.
Minerva Punjab shade it at 51%. Over 2.5 at 55%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Kerala Blasters 34%, Mumbai City 37%. Over 2.5 at 47%, likeliest score 1-1.
Alavés W shade it at 50%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-1.
Madrid CFF W shade it at 41%. Over 2.5 at 51%, likeliest score 1-1.
AIK W shade it at 48%. Over 2.5 at 57%, likeliest score 1-1.
Vittsjo W shade it at 43%. Both teams to score at 58%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Dinamo Makhachkala 2 35%, Angusht 40%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-1.
Trelleborg shade it at 44%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 63%, likeliest score 1-1.
Norrköping shade it at 54%. Both teams to score at 60%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Helsingborg 36%, Ljungskile 39%. Both teams to score at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
Strømsgodset shade it at 54%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 74%, likeliest score 1-2.
Home win hides +12% value
Our model flags a +12.2% edge for a home victory despite the 6.59 odds (about a 15% implied chance). Strømmen have been prolific lately – 15 goals in their last five games, with every match seeing over 2.5 goals and both sides scoring. While Strømsgodset are strong, only 62% of their away fixtures have gone over 2.5 and the sole head‑to‑head meeting ended in a 3‑0 loss for Strømmen, suggesting the home side may be undervalued.
Haugesund are clear favourites at 72%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 76%, likeliest score 2-1.
Over 2.5 Goals likely, odds too short
Our model shows a -6.07% value edge for Over 2.5 Goals (model rating 75.90% vs implied 81.97%). Haugesund’s home matches go over 2.5 goals in 69% of games and Hødd’s away matches do so in 69% as well. The last five head‑to‑head meetings averaged 3.0 goals, with three games already over 2.5. The combination suggests the market is pricing the goal total too low.
Sandnes Ulf shade it at 48%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 68%, likeliest score 2-1.
Bryne shade it at 54%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 63%, likeliest score 2-1.
Stabæk shade it at 53%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 77%, likeliest score 2-1.
Under 2.5 Goals Overpriced – Expect More
Our model flags a -5.58% value edge for Under 2.5 goals, meaning the odds are too generous. Stabæk’s matches go over 2.5 goals in 85% of home games and Odd does so in 77% of away games. In the last five fixtures each side has recorded three or more games with over two goals. With both teams regularly producing high‑scoring games, a sub‑2.5 result looks unlikely.
Too close to call: Sogndal 40%, Kongsvinger 40%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 71%, likeliest score 1-2.
Moss shade it at 51%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 67%, likeliest score 2-1.
Babrungas are clear favourites at 81%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 71%, likeliest score 3-0.
Dainava shade it at 55%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 60%, likeliest score 1-1.
Hradec Králové shade it at 45%. Over 2.5 at 50%, likeliest score 1-1.
Sparta Praha are clear favourites at 72%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 63%, likeliest score 2-0.
Viktoria Plzeň shade it at 53%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
Celtic shade it at 45%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 66%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Motherwell 40%, Hearts 35%. Both teams to score at 60%, likeliest score 1-1.
Hajduk Split U19 shade it at 42%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-1.
Istra 1961 U19 shade it at 52%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 65%, likeliest score 1-1.
Mladost Ždralovi U19 are clear favourites at 70%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 71%, likeliest score 2-1.
Hoffenheim W shade it at 55%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 72%, likeliest score 2-1.
Werder Bremen W shade it at 47%. Both teams to score at 59%, likeliest score 1-1.
Bayer Leverkusen W are clear favourites at 82%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 68%, likeliest score 0-2.
Union Berlin W shade it at 56%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 66%, likeliest score 1-1.
Chelsea W are clear favourites at 75%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 68%, likeliest score 0-2.
Everton W shade it at 51%. Both teams to score at 59%, likeliest score 1-1.
Birmingham City W shade it at 58%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 65%, likeliest score 2-1.
London City Lionesses W shade it at 50%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
Manchester City W shade it at 53%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 65%, likeliest score 1-2.
PK-35 shade it at 53%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-1.
Banga shade it at 49%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-1.
Panevėžys shade it at 42%. Over 2.5 at 49%, likeliest score 1-1.
Vasas shade it at 46%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 64%, likeliest score 1-1.
Nyíregyháza Spartacus shade it at 41%. Both teams to score at 60%, likeliest score 1-1.
Ferencvárosi are clear favourites at 64%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 64%, likeliest score 2-1.
Flora shade it at 44%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 64%, likeliest score 1-1.
Saarbrücken are clear favourites at 60%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 62%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Preußen Münster 38%, Fortuna Köln 39%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
Waldhof Mannheim shade it at 44%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 63%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Holstein Kiel 37%, Dynamo Dresden 37%. Over 2.5 at 52%, likeliest score 1-1.
Hannover 96 shade it at 53%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 64%, likeliest score 1-2.
Too close to call: Osnabrück 39%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 37%. Over 2.5 at 55%, likeliest score 1-1.
Genk shade it at 59%. Over 2.5 at 54%, likeliest score 1-0.
Club Brugge are clear favourites at 63%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 62%, likeliest score 2-1.
Gent shade it at 45%. Over 2.5 at 50%, likeliest score 1-1.
Union Saint-Gilloise are clear favourites at 63%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-0.
Paykan shade it at 43%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 75%, likeliest score 0-0.
Sepahan are clear favourites at 65%. Over 2.5 at 40%, likeliest score 1-0.
Persepolis are clear favourites at 60%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 66%, likeliest score 1-0.
Nassaji Mazandaran shade it at 55%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 65%, likeliest score 1-0.
Shams Azar Qazvin shade it at 37%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 75%, likeliest score 0-0.
Panionios shade it at 50%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 66%, likeliest score 1-0.
Panthrakikos are clear favourites at 68%. Over 2.5 at 49%, likeliest score 1-0.
Anagennisi Karditsas shade it at 51%. Over 2.5 at 41%, likeliest score 1-0.
GAIS shade it at 46%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-1.
Hammarby shade it at 53%. Over 2.5 at 60%, likeliest score 1-1.
1860 München shade it at 58%. Over 2.5 at 54%, likeliest score 1-1.
FC Midtjylland shade it at 53%. Over 2.5 at 54%, likeliest score 1-1.
Nordsjælland shade it at 45%. Over 2.5 at 52%, likeliest score 1-1.
Horsens shade it at 43%. Over 2.5 at 51%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: AGF 41%, Viborg FF 34%. Both teams to score at 58%, likeliest score 1-1.
Chemie Leipzig shade it at 44%. Over 2.5 at 55%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Hallescher FC 38%, Lokomotive Leipzig 37%. Over 2.5 at 56%, likeliest score 1-1.
Lugano are clear favourites at 61%. Over 2.5 at 59%, likeliest score 0-1.
Lugano dominate away – Bet on Away Win
Our model shows a +5.87% value edge for an away victory. Lugano have won every away match this season (100% away win rate) and captured four of their last five league games on the road. In the recent head‑to‑head, Lugano have triumphed four times out of five, underscoring their clear superiority away from home.
Too close to call: Basel 38%, Grasshopper 39%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 64%, likeliest score 1-1.
Sion shade it at 49%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
Nykøbing FC are clear favourites at 71%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 70%, likeliest score 2-1.
VfB Lübeck shade it at 48%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 69%, likeliest score 1-2.
Weiche Flensburg are clear favourites at 61%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 66%, likeliest score 1-2.
Phönix Lübeck are clear favourites at 66%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 67%, likeliest score 2-1.
Hamburger SV II shade it at 58%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 64%, likeliest score 1-1.
Hertha BSC are clear favourites at 65%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 75%, likeliest score 2-1.
Meppen W shade it at 54%. Over 2.5 at 59%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Borussia Mönchengladbach W 39%, Hoffenheim II W 41%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 67%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Eintracht Frankfurt II W 39%, Köln II W 37%. Over 2.5 at 56%, likeliest score 1-1.
Ulm shade it at 43%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 62%, likeliest score 1-1.
Sabadell shade it at 51%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 64%, likeliest score 1-0.
Cádiz shade it at 49%. Over 2.5 at 48%, likeliest score 1-1.
Albacete shade it at 43%. Over 2.5 at 52%, likeliest score 1-1.
Castellón shade it at 59%. Over 2.5 at 55%, likeliest score 1-0.
Konyaspor shade it at 52%. Over 2.5 at 51%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Göztepe 39%, Çorum FK 34%. Over 2.5 at 52%, likeliest score 1-1.
Athletic Club are clear favourites at 61%. Over 2.5 at 43%, likeliest score 1-0.
Real Betis shade it at 45%. Over 2.5 at 52%, likeliest score 1-1.
Real Sociedad shade it at 50%. Over 2.5 at 50%, likeliest score 1-1.
FC Barcelona are clear favourites at 61%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 77%, likeliest score 2-1.
HJK shade it at 57%. Over 2.5 at 58%, likeliest score 1-1.
Durban City are clear favourites at 69%. Over 2.5 at 51%, likeliest score 0-1.
Maniema Union are clear favourites at 64%. Over 2.5 at 43%, likeliest score 1-0.
ASKO de Kara shade it at 47%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 1-0.
Al Ahly are clear favourites at 75%. Over 2.5 at 46%, likeliest score 1-0.
Singida Black Stars shade it at 58%. Over 2.5 at 50%, likeliest score 1-0.
FAR Rabat are clear favourites at 63%. Over 2.5 at 41%, likeliest score 1-0.
Too close to call: Wanderers 40%, Atlético Progreso 32%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
Montevideo City Torque shade it at 54%. Over 2.5 at 46%, likeliest score 1-0.
Too close to call: Cerro Largo 38%, Boston River 33%. Over 2.5 at 40%, likeliest score 1-1.
Nacional shade it at 45%. Over 2.5 at 43%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Huracán 35%, Oriental 38%. Over 2.5 at 47%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Atenas 33%, Fénix 39%. Over 2.5 at 43%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Cerrito 40%, Rentistas 33%. Over 2.5 at 45%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: La Luz 38%, Miramar Misiones 34%. Over 2.5 at 44%, likeliest score 1-1.
Viking shade it at 59%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 63%, likeliest score 1-1.
Goal feast likely – Over 2.5 goals
Our model shows a -7.66% value edge for Over 2.5 goals (model probability 63.77% versus the odds‑implied 71.43%). Viking hit the over‑2.5 mark in every one of its 11 home games this season, while Tromsø have done so in 55% of their away fixtures. The last five meetings between the sides averaged 4.2 goals and four of those matches went over 2.5. The combination points to a high chance of a goal‑rich game, but the market is over‑priced.
Start shade it at 46%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 63%, likeliest score 1-1.
Sarpsborg 08 shade it at 43%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 63%, likeliest score 1-1.
Brann shade it at 45%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 67%, likeliest score 1-2.
Too close to call: Kristiansund 34%, KFUM 41%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-1.
Molde are clear favourites at 61%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 67%, likeliest score 2-1.
Sturm Graz shade it at 44%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-1.
Salzburg shade it at 53%. Over 2.5 at 59%, likeliest score 1-1.
GOSK Gabela shade it at 49%. Over 2.5 at 47%, likeliest score 1-0.
Sassari Torres shade it at 51%. Over 2.5 at 43%, likeliest score 1-0.
Home side’s strong home form backs value bet
Our model assigns a +7.42% edge to a home win. The hosts have won 80% of their home games this season and are unbeaten in their last four matches, with a single win in the last five. This solid home record aligns with the model’s confidence, making a home‑win wager attractive.
Forlì shade it at 50%. Over 2.5 at 46%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Grosseto 39%, Reggiana 35%. Over 2.5 at 52%, likeliest score 1-1.
Teramo shade it at 50%. Over 2.5 at 49%, likeliest score 0-1.
L'Aquila shade it at 48%. Over 2.5 at 42%, likeliest score 1-0.
Too close to call: Termoli Calcio 36%, Atletico Ascoli 33%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 63%, likeliest score 1-1.
Virtus Lanciano shade it at 45%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-1.
Ancona shade it at 50%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 0-1.
Santegidiese shade it at 44%. Over 2.5 at 43%, likeliest score 0-1.
Lascaris shade it at 41%. Over 2.5 at 43%, likeliest score 1-1.
Pro Imperia shade it at 45%. Over 2.5 at 40%, likeliest score 1-0.
Too close to call: Bra 39%, Derthona 33%. Over 2.5 at 42%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Asti 36%, Borgosesia 37%. Over 2.5 at 47%, likeliest score 1-1.
Sestri Levante shade it at 41%. Over 2.5 at 48%, likeliest score 1-1.
Alessandria shade it at 43%. Over 2.5 at 47%, likeliest score 1-1.
Ligorna are clear favourites at 66%. Over 2.5 at 51%, likeliest score 0-1.
Too close to call: Tritium 39%, Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 32%. Over 2.5 at 42%, likeliest score 1-1.
Milan II shade it at 47%. Over 2.5 at 49%, likeliest score 1-1.
Piacenza shade it at 45%. Over 2.5 at 42%, likeliest score 0-1.
Rovato Vertova shade it at 47%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 63%, likeliest score 0-1.
Too close to call: Campodarsego 38%, Clodiense 34%. Over 2.5 at 49%, likeliest score 1-1.
Brian Lignano shade it at 41%. Over 2.5 at 45%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Calvi Noale 31%, Este 37%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 64%, likeliest score 0-0.
Luparense shade it at 43%. Over 2.5 at 41%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Triestina 38%, Mestre 33%. Over 2.5 at 42%, likeliest score 1-1.
Cjarlins Muzane are clear favourites at 79%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 72%, likeliest score 3-0.
Pro Patria shade it at 58%. Over 2.5 at 46%, likeliest score 1-0.
Casatese shade it at 54%. Over 2.5 at 45%, likeliest score 0-1.
Lentigione shade it at 60%. Over 2.5 at 47%, likeliest score 1-0.
Pistoiese shade it at 52%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 67%, likeliest score 0-1.
Coriano shade it at 54%. Over 2.5 at 46%, likeliest score 1-0.
Pro Sesto are clear favourites at 64%. Over 2.5 at 51%, likeliest score 1-0.
Castellanzese shade it at 44%. Over 2.5 at 47%, likeliest score 1-1.
Seravezza shade it at 49%. Over 2.5 at 44%, likeliest score 1-1.
Ternana shade it at 55%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 63%, likeliest score 0-1.
Prato are clear favourites at 62%. Over 2.5 at 54%, likeliest score 1-0.
Mezzolara shade it at 47%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 60%, likeliest score 1-0.
Lucchese shade it at 59%. Over 2.5 at 59%, likeliest score 2-1.
San Donato Tavarnelle shade it at 42%. Over 2.5 at 46%, likeliest score 1-1.
Tau Altopascio shade it at 47%. Over 2.5 at 47%, likeliest score 1-1.
Sarrabus Ogliastra shade it at 41%. Over 2.5 at 47%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Anzio 34%, Afragolese 36%. Over 2.5 at 43%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Atletico Lodigiani 38%, US Venafro 38%. Over 2.5 at 50%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Albalonga 33%, Unipomezia 39%. Over 2.5 at 47%, likeliest score 1-1.
Paganese shade it at 42%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-1.
Siracusa shade it at 56%. Over 2.5 at 48%, likeliest score 1-0.
Too close to call: Sambiase 37%, Nissa 33%. Over 2.5 at 41%, likeliest score 1-1.
Gela shade it at 39%. Over 2.5 at 43%, likeliest score 1-1.
Milazzo shade it at 48%. Over 2.5 at 48%, likeliest score 1-0.
Martina Franca shade it at 48%. Over 2.5 at 51%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Ebolitana 37%, Gravina 35%. Over 2.5 at 45%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Nardò 36%, Fidelis Andria 34%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 62%, likeliest score 1-1.
Nocerina shade it at 55%. Over 2.5 at 55%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Aversa Normanna 40%, Turris 32%. Over 2.5 at 43%, likeliest score 1-1.
Virtus Francavilla are clear favourites at 62%. Over 2.5 at 48%, likeliest score 1-0.
Bisceglie shade it at 45%. Over 2.5 at 57%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Karlberg 38%, Umeå 39%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 65%, likeliest score 1-1.
Enkoping shade it at 43%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 63%, likeliest score 1-1.
AFC Eskilstuna are clear favourites at 62%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 72%, likeliest score 2-1.
Too close to call: Assyriska 41%, Arlanda 36%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 66%, likeliest score 1-1.
Farul Constanța shade it at 56%. Over 2.5 at 51%, likeliest score 1-0.
Dinamo Bucureşti shade it at 56%. Over 2.5 at 51%, likeliest score 0-1.
Mezőkövesd-Zsóry shade it at 42%. Over 2.5 at 50%, likeliest score 1-1.
Monaco shade it at 47%. Both teams to score at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Angers SCO 34%, Lorient 38%. Over 2.5 at 50%, likeliest score 1-1.
Olympique Marseille shade it at 57%. Over 2.5 at 54%, likeliest score 1-0.
Auxerre shade it at 48%. Over 2.5 at 52%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Toulouse 39%, Troyes 35%. Over 2.5 at 54%, likeliest score 1-1.
Rennes are clear favourites at 61%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 60%, likeliest score 2-1.
Paris Saint Germain are clear favourites at 69%. Over 2.5 at 60%, likeliest score 1-0.
Palermo shade it at 56%. Over 2.5 at 49%, likeliest score 1-0.
Hellas Verona shade it at 49%. Over 2.5 at 47%, likeliest score 1-1.
Brentford shade it at 44%. Over 2.5 at 48%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Crystal Palace 42%, Newcastle United 34%. Both teams to score at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
Manchester United shade it at 50%. Over 2.5 at 55%, likeliest score 1-1.
Liverpool shade it at 44%. Both teams to score at 60%, likeliest score 1-1.
Sunderland shade it at 43%. Over 2.5 at 46%, likeliest score 1-1.
Olympiacos F.C. are clear favourites at 64%. Over 2.5 at 41%, likeliest score 1-0.
Panathinaikos shade it at 54%. Over 2.5 at 48%, likeliest score 0-1.
Aris shade it at 56%. Over 2.5 at 46%, likeliest score 1-0.
PAOK shade it at 48%. Both teams to score at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Komárno 36%, Trenčín 41%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
FK Košice shade it at 45%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 66%, likeliest score 1-1.
Hamrun Spartans shade it at 54%. Over 2.5 at 46%, likeliest score 0-1.
Birzebbuga shade it at 48%. Over 2.5 at 49%, likeliest score 1-1.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen shade it at 51%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 70%, likeliest score 1-2.
FC Bayern München shade it at 53%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 63%, likeliest score 1-2.
Víkingur are clear favourites at 70%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 73%, likeliest score 2-1.
07 Vestur shade it at 48%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 62%, likeliest score 1-1.
KÍ shade it at 47%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 63%, likeliest score 1-1.
Skála shade it at 50%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 64%, likeliest score 2-1.
Gamla Upsala W shade it at 44%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
Crvena Zvezda are clear favourites at 62%. Over 2.5 at 56%, likeliest score 0-1.
Too close to call: Lugano II 35%, Bellinzona 40%. Over 2.5 at 56%, likeliest score 1-1.
UNA Strassen are clear favourites at 79%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 65%, likeliest score 0-2.
Differdange 03 are clear favourites at 65%. Over 2.5 at 58%, likeliest score 1-0.
Too close to call: Victoria Rosport 39%, Résidence Walferdange 37%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 64%, likeliest score 1-1.
KAS Eupen shade it at 44%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 65%, likeliest score 1-1.
RFC Liège shade it at 46%. Both teams to score at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
Apollon shade it at 46%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-1.
APOEL are clear favourites at 60%. Both teams to score at 58%, likeliest score 2-1.
Aris Limassol shade it at 42%. Over 2.5 at 52%, likeliest score 1-1.
Girona II shade it at 49%. Over 2.5 at 57%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: SD Logroñés 33%, Terrassa 38%. Over 2.5 at 40%, likeliest score 1-1.
Barcelona II shade it at 58%. Over 2.5 at 47%, likeliest score 0-1.
Espanyol II shade it at 55%. Over 2.5 at 43%, likeliest score 1-0.
Colombe shade it at 49%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 68%, likeliest score 1-0.
ASEC Mimosas shade it at 38%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 68%, likeliest score 0-0.
Al Hilal Omdurman shade it at 58%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 1-0.
Club Africain shade it at 50%. Over 2.5 at 50%, likeliest score 1-0.
San-Pedro shade it at 43%. Over 2.5 at 45%, likeliest score 1-1.
Estoril shade it at 45%. Over 2.5 at 46%, likeliest score 1-1.
Sporting Braga shade it at 52%. Over 2.5 at 49%, likeliest score 0-1.
Famalicão shade it at 47%. Over 2.5 at 49%, likeliest score 1-1.
Sporting CP are clear favourites at 68%. Over 2.5 at 56%, likeliest score 1-0.
Yverdon Sport shade it at 59%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 67%, likeliest score 2-1.
Real Oviedo II shade it at 44%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 0-1.
Too close to call: Ourense CF 40%, Gimnástica Torrelavega 35%. Over 2.5 at 50%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: CD Basconia 38%, Portugalete 35%. Both teams to score at 59%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: AS Douanes 31%, RC de Kadiogo 35%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 72%, likeliest score 0-0.
Hibernian W shade it at 52%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 72%, likeliest score 2-1.
Borac Banja Luka are clear favourites at 77%. Over 2.5 at 49%, likeliest score 2-0.
Velez shade it at 59%. Over 2.5 at 45%, likeliest score 1-0.
Leones del Norte shade it at 50%. Over 2.5 at 43%, likeliest score 1-0.
Emelec shade it at 59%. Over 2.5 at 47%, likeliest score 1-0.
Aucas shade it at 48%. Over 2.5 at 45%, likeliest score 1-1.
Osijek shade it at 48%. Over 2.5 at 52%, likeliest score 1-1.
Merida shade it at 46%. Over 2.5 at 44%, likeliest score 1-1.
Deportes Temuco shade it at 43%. Both teams to score at 60%, likeliest score 1-1.
Antofagasta are clear favourites at 64%. Over 2.5 at 57%, likeliest score 1-0.
Luján shade it at 46%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 67%, likeliest score 1-0.
The draw is the single likeliest result at 37%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 77%, likeliest score 0-0.
Cañuelas shade it at 52%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 65%, likeliest score 1-0.
Beitar Jerusalem are clear favourites at 69%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 0-2.
Lincoln Red Imps are clear favourites at 64%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 66%, likeliest score 2-1.
Forge are clear favourites at 61%. Over 2.5 at 58%, likeliest score 0-1.
Atlético Ottawa shade it at 45%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 64%, likeliest score 1-1.
Cavalry are clear favourites at 68%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 2-0.
Too close to call: HFX Wanderers 38%, Supra du Québec 40%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 67%, likeliest score 1-2.
Cerro Porteño shade it at 58%. Over 2.5 at 43%, likeliest score 0-1.
Alajuelense are clear favourites at 65%. Over 2.5 at 57%, likeliest score 2-1.
Tigres UANL W are clear favourites at 62%. Over 2.5 at 60%, likeliest score 2-1.
Tigres home win +11% value edge
Our model rates a home win at 61.94% versus an implied 50.76%, creating an +11.18% value edge. Tigres have won 83% of their home matches this season and 82% overall, with three wins in their last five games. Even though they’ve only secured one home win in the last five head‑to‑heads, the strong home record supports the model’s confidence.
Atlas W are clear favourites at 87%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 78%, likeliest score 3-0.
Too close to call: Central Cordoba SdE 33%, Vélez Sarsfield 38%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 62%, likeliest score 1-1.
Barracas Central shade it at 50%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 62%, likeliest score 1-0.
Too close to call: Unión Santa Fe 38%, Estudiantes 34%. Over 2.5 at 43%, likeliest score 1-1.
Los Angeles FC are clear favourites at 61%. Over 2.5 at 56%, likeliest score 1-0.
Cruz Azul shade it at 51%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-1.
América shade it at 52%. Over 2.5 at 50%, likeliest score 1-0.
Tijuana shade it at 56%. Over 2.5 at 52%, likeliest score 1-0.
Deportes Tolima shade it at 56%. Over 2.5 at 49%, likeliest score 1-0.
Jaguares de Córdoba shade it at 43%. Over 2.5 at 46%, likeliest score 1-1.
Fard Alborz shade it at 43%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 76%, likeliest score 0-0.
The draw is the single likeliest result at 35%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 74%, likeliest score 0-0.
Kara Gostar shade it at 40%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 67%, likeliest score 1-0.
Bhayangkara are clear favourites at 64%. Over 2.5 at 55%, likeliest score 1-0.
Persebaya Surabaya are clear favourites at 70%. Over 2.5 at 58%, likeliest score 1-0.
Persija are clear favourites at 74%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 64%, likeliest score 2-0.
Zakynthos shade it at 41%. Over 2.5 at 47%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Mladost Ždralovi 39%, Jadran LP 35%. Over 2.5 at 50%, likeliest score 1-1.
Neftchi shade it at 43%. Over 2.5 at 56%, likeliest score 1-1.
Al Nassr shade it at 57%. Over 2.5 at 59%, likeliest score 2-1.
ATK Mohun Bagan are clear favourites at 82%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 70%, likeliest score 3-0.
FC Iberia 1999 shade it at 41%. Both teams to score at 59%, likeliest score 1-1.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv shade it at 39%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 62%, likeliest score 1-1.
Ludogorets shade it at 46%. Over 2.5 at 51%, likeliest score 1-1.
Noah shade it at 54%. Over 2.5 at 56%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Metaloglobus 34%, CSM Râmnicu Vâlcea 40%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-1.
Nueva Chicago shade it at 39%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 69%, likeliest score 1-0.
Defensores de Belgrano shade it at 44%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 67%, likeliest score 1-0.
Riga are clear favourites at 69%. Over 2.5 at 59%, likeliest score 0-2.
TransINVEST Vilnius II shade it at 49%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 70%, likeliest score 1-1.
Beşiktaş are clear favourites at 63%. Over 2.5 at 60%, likeliest score 2-1.
Trabzonspor shade it at 47%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Galatasaray 37%, Fenerbahçe 39%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 63%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Nea Salamis 38%, Pafos FC 37%. Both teams to score at 58%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: AEK Larnaca 37%, Omonia Nicosia 34%. Over 2.5 at 50%, likeliest score 1-1.
Shinnik shade it at 40%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 62%, likeliest score 1-1.
Kauno Žalgiris shade it at 47%. Over 2.5 at 52%, likeliest score 1-1.
Viimsi shade it at 60%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 74%, likeliest score 2-1.
Too close to call: Warta Poznań 38%, ŁKS Łódź 33%. Over 2.5 at 50%, likeliest score 1-1.
Hajduk Split shade it at 56%. Over 2.5 at 57%, likeliest score 1-1.
Mardin BB shade it at 58%. Over 2.5 at 51%, likeliest score 1-0.
Maccabi Haifa shade it at 52%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 63%, likeliest score 2-1.
Universitatea Craiova are clear favourites at 65%. Over 2.5 at 51%, likeliest score 0-1.
FC København are clear favourites at 62%. Over 2.5 at 56%, likeliest score 1-0.
Too close to call: Örebro 36%, Falkenberg 38%. Both teams to score at 59%, likeliest score 1-1.
Benfica shade it at 59%. Over 2.5 at 50%, likeliest score 0-1.
FC Andorra shade it at 48%. Over 2.5 at 54%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Picerno 33%, Salernitana 39%. Over 2.5 at 45%, likeliest score 1-1.
Crotone shade it at 47%. Over 2.5 at 51%, likeliest score 1-1.
Reims shade it at 56%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 62%, likeliest score 0-1.
Too close to call: Montpellier 37%, Red Star 37%. Over 2.5 at 54%, likeliest score 1-1.
Salford City shade it at 45%. Over 2.5 at 56%, likeliest score 1-1.
Sevilla shade it at 47%. Over 2.5 at 52%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Técnico Universitario 34%, Mushuc Runa 36%. Over 2.5 at 40%, likeliest score 1-1.
Torreense shade it at 43%. Over 2.5 at 43%, likeliest score 1-1.
Universidad Chile shade it at 58%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 60%, likeliest score 1-1.
Coritiba shade it at 41%. Over 2.5 at 46%, likeliest score 1-1.
Flamengo are clear favourites at 73%. Over 2.5 at 48%, likeliest score 2-0.
Too close to call: América Mineiro 39%, Cuiabá 32%. Over 2.5 at 44%, likeliest score 1-1.
Juventude shade it at 51%. Over 2.5 at 50%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Paysandu FC 37%, Colón 34%. Over 2.5 at 45%, likeliest score 1-1.
Instituto shade it at 54%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 69%, likeliest score 1-0.
Argentinos Juniors shade it at 51%. Over 2.5 at 40%, likeliest score 1-0.
Livyi Bereh shade it at 51%. Over 2.5 at 48%, likeliest score 1-0.
Shakhtar Donetsk shade it at 47%. Over 2.5 at 57%, likeliest score 1-1.
Saipa shade it at 52%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 73%, likeliest score 1-0.
Naft Bandar Abbas shade it at 39%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 76%, likeliest score 0-0.
Pars Jonoubi Jam shade it at 45%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 76%, likeliest score 1-0.
Panserraikos shade it at 48%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 60%, likeliest score 1-0.
Asteras Tripolis shade it at 42%. Over 2.5 at 47%, likeliest score 1-1.
Cherno More shade it at 54%. Over 2.5 at 43%, likeliest score 1-0.
Levski Sofia shade it at 47%. Over 2.5 at 43%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Fakel 34%, Akhmat Grozny 39%. Over 2.5 at 43%, likeliest score 1-1.
Krasnodar shade it at 45%. Over 2.5 at 56%, likeliest score 1-1.
JK Trans Narva shade it at 50%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 67%, likeliest score 2-1.
Levadia are clear favourites at 86%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 81%, likeliest score 3-0.
Mura shade it at 47%. Over 2.5 at 51%, likeliest score 1-1.
Koper shade it at 44%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Ludogorets II 38%, Dobrudzha 1919 35%. Over 2.5 at 50%, likeliest score 1-1.
Dinamo Zagreb shade it at 48%. Over 2.5 at 55%, likeliest score 1-1.
Rot-Weiss Essen shade it at 46%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 73%, likeliest score 2-1.
Eintracht Frankfurt shade it at 45%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 72%, likeliest score 1-2.
FC Augsburg shade it at 49%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 71%, likeliest score 1-2.
FSV Mainz 05 shade it at 44%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 63%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Borussia Mönchengladbach 38%, Karlsruher SC 39%. Both teams to score at 60%, likeliest score 1-1.
FC Köln shade it at 46%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 66%, likeliest score 1-1.
Borussia Dortmund are clear favourites at 66%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 69%, likeliest score 2-1.
Elversberg shade it at 43%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 70%, likeliest score 2-1.
Too close to call: Sassuolo 34%, Lazio 40%. Over 2.5 at 54%, likeliest score 1-1.
Como shade it at 48%. Over 2.5 at 57%, likeliest score 1-1.
Roma are clear favourites at 67%. Over 2.5 at 57%, likeliest score 2-0.
Landskrona shade it at 50%. Both teams to score at 59%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: AIK 33%, Elfsborg 39%. Both teams to score at 59%, likeliest score 1-1.
Benevento shade it at 55%. Over 2.5 at 48%, likeliest score 1-0.
Too close to call: Vicenza 33%, Modena 39%. Over 2.5 at 46%, likeliest score 1-1.
Virtus Entella shade it at 49%. Over 2.5 at 46%, likeliest score 1-1.
Ascoli shade it at 53%. Over 2.5 at 43%, likeliest score 1-0.
Mantova shade it at 42%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-1.
Cesena shade it at 47%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 62%, likeliest score 1-0.
Too close to call: Calcio Padova 35%, Südtirol 37%. Over 2.5 at 42%, likeliest score 1-1.
Ross County shade it at 48%. Both teams to score at 59%, likeliest score 1-1.
Dunfermline Athletic shade it at 45%. Over 2.5 at 42%, likeliest score 1-1.
United of Manchester shade it at 45%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 65%, likeliest score 1-1.
Barnet shade it at 47%. Over 2.5 at 54%, likeliest score 1-1.
Luton Town shade it at 57%. Over 2.5 at 54%, likeliest score 1-0.
Too close to call: Sheffield Wednesday 32%, Cambridge United 39%. Over 2.5 at 42%, likeliest score 1-1.
Milton Keynes Dons shade it at 58%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-0.
Leicester City shade it at 56%. Over 2.5 at 56%, likeliest score 1-1.
Stockport County shade it at 46%. Over 2.5 at 50%, likeliest score 1-1.
Bradford City shade it at 54%. Over 2.5 at 56%, likeliest score 1-0.
Arsenal shade it at 58%. Over 2.5 at 50%, likeliest score 0-1.
Ceará shade it at 44%. Over 2.5 at 47%, likeliest score 1-1.
PSS Sleman shade it at 44%. Over 2.5 at 55%, likeliest score 1-1.
Orenburg shade it at 56%. Over 2.5 at 54%, likeliest score 1-0.
Rostov shade it at 44%. Over 2.5 at 44%, likeliest score 1-1.
Spartak Moskva are clear favourites at 73%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 60%, likeliest score 2-0.
Kalamata are clear favourites at 62%. Over 2.5 at 46%, likeliest score 0-1.
Olympiacos F.C. are clear favourites at 61%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 0-1.
Panathinaikos are clear favourites at 65%. Over 2.5 at 59%, likeliest score 2-1.
Larissa shade it at 52%. Over 2.5 at 48%, likeliest score 1-1.
PAOK shade it at 45%. Over 2.5 at 54%, likeliest score 1-1.
Sparta Praha B shade it at 46%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 64%, likeliest score 1-1.
Reggina shade it at 57%. Over 2.5 at 46%, likeliest score 0-1.
Too close to call: National Bank of Egypt 34%, Al Masry 36%. Over 2.5 at 41%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Zamalek 35%, Arab Contractors FC 34%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 66%, likeliest score 0-0.
Goa shade it at 56%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-0.
Too close to call: Vaprus 40%, Kuressaare 36%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 63%, likeliest score 1-1.
Nõmme Kalju shade it at 45%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 63%, likeliest score 1-1.
Nafta shade it at 53%. Over 2.5 at 55%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Olimpija 38%, Celje 36%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-1.
Fratria shade it at 56%. Over 2.5 at 50%, likeliest score 1-0.
Oulu shade it at 41%. Over 2.5 at 47%, likeliest score 1-1.
Dunajská Streda shade it at 48%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 60%, likeliest score 1-1.
VfB Stuttgart shade it at 53%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 74%, likeliest score 1-2.
SC Freiburg are clear favourites at 61%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 71%, likeliest score 2-1.
Hertha BSC are clear favourites at 85%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 78%, likeliest score 0-2.
Schalke 04 shade it at 48%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 65%, likeliest score 1-2.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen shade it at 53%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 68%, likeliest score 2-1.
Hannover 96 shade it at 50%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
TSG Hoffenheim shade it at 46%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 67%, likeliest score 1-2.
FC Bayern München are clear favourites at 67%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 76%, likeliest score 3-1.
Inter shade it at 47%. Over 2.5 at 56%, likeliest score 1-1.
AC Milan shade it at 51%. Over 2.5 at 52%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Parma 36%, Udinese 35%. Over 2.5 at 43%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Monza 33%, Napoli 41%. Both teams to score at 58%, likeliest score 1-1.
Juventus shade it at 50%. Over 2.5 at 51%, likeliest score 1-1.
Djurgården shade it at 47%. Over 2.5 at 58%, likeliest score 1-1.
Häcken shade it at 51%. Over 2.5 at 55%, likeliest score 1-1.
Malmö FF shade it at 57%. Over 2.5 at 59%, likeliest score 1-1.
Västerås SK shade it at 44%. Both teams to score at 58%, likeliest score 1-1.
Palermo shade it at 43%. Over 2.5 at 43%, likeliest score 1-1.
Juve Stabia shade it at 48%. Over 2.5 at 48%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Carrarese 37%, Arezzo 37%. Over 2.5 at 54%, likeliest score 1-1.
Manchester City are clear favourites at 63%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 73%, likeliest score 2-1.
Too close to call: AFC Bournemouth 39%, Aston Villa 37%. Both teams to score at 59%, likeliest score 1-1.
Brentford shade it at 44%. Over 2.5 at 56%, likeliest score 1-1.
Fulham shade it at 52%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 62%, likeliest score 2-1.
Liverpool shade it at 49%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 67%, likeliest score 2-1.
Hibernian shade it at 48%. Over 2.5 at 49%, likeliest score 1-1.
Dundee shade it at 44%. Both teams to score at 58%, likeliest score 1-1.
St. Johnstone shade it at 48%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Aberdeen 40%, Falkirk 34%. Over 2.5 at 51%, likeliest score 1-1.
Celtic shade it at 57%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 66%, likeliest score 2-1.
Too close to call: Hearts 40%, Rangers 33%. Over 2.5 at 52%, likeliest score 1-1.
Bragantino are clear favourites at 65%. Over 2.5 at 52%, likeliest score 1-0.
Palmeiras shade it at 42%. Over 2.5 at 43%, likeliest score 1-1.
Fluminense shade it at 57%. Over 2.5 at 46%, likeliest score 1-0.
Independiente del Valle shade it at 44%. Over 2.5 at 49%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Atlético Tucumán 35%, Platense 34%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 64%, likeliest score 1-1.
Bahia shade it at 58%. Over 2.5 at 51%, likeliest score 1-0.
Too close to call: Remo 34%, Botafogo 38%. Over 2.5 at 47%, likeliest score 1-1.
Atlético Mineiro shade it at 51%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Vasco da Gama 34%, Flamengo 37%. Over 2.5 at 46%, likeliest score 1-1.
América shade it at 60%. Over 2.5 at 50%, likeliest score 1-0.
Too close to call: Zorya Luhansk 36%, Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih 39%. Over 2.5 at 48%, likeliest score 1-1.
Krylya Sovetov shade it at 51%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-1.
CSKA Moskva shade it at 51%. Both teams to score at 59%, likeliest score 1-1.
Zenit are clear favourites at 60%. Over 2.5 at 45%, likeliest score 0-1.
Al Ahly shade it at 50%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 0-1.
Pyramids FC shade it at 48%. Over 2.5 at 42%, likeliest score 1-1.
Al Khaleej shade it at 41%. Over 2.5 at 54%, likeliest score 1-1.
Atromitos shade it at 44%. Over 2.5 at 44%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Inter Turku 38%, HJK 35%. Over 2.5 at 52%, likeliest score 1-1.
KuPS shade it at 55%. Both teams to score at 58%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Grosuplje 38%, Bravo 37%. Both teams to score at 58%, likeliest score 1-1.
Hammarby shade it at 52%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 64%, likeliest score 2-1.
Mjällby shade it at 43%. Over 2.5 at 47%, likeliest score 1-1.
GAIS shade it at 42%. Both teams to score at 59%, likeliest score 1-1.
Frosinone shade it at 54%. Over 2.5 at 54%, likeliest score 1-1.
Fiorentina shade it at 47%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-1.
Amiens SC shade it at 49%. Over 2.5 at 50%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Everton 35%, Newcastle United 42%. Over 2.5 at 57%, likeliest score 1-1.
Libertad shade it at 56%. Over 2.5 at 52%, likeliest score 1-1.
Guaraní shade it at 44%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
2 de Mayo shade it at 42%. Over 2.5 at 42%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Nacional Asunción 36%, Sportivo Trinidense 33%. Over 2.5 at 40%, likeliest score 1-1.
Universidad Católica shade it at 50%. Over 2.5 at 54%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Grêmio 39%, Athletico PR 35%. Both teams to score at 59%, likeliest score 1-1.
Try another day or league, or clear the search.
12,459 matches graded · refreshed every few hours
Every home, draw and away probability, grouped and checked against what actually happened. The closer the dots sit to the line, the more honest the numbers.
| Model said | Happened | Outcomes |
|---|---|---|
| 6.9% | 4.6% | 740 |
| 16.5% | 16% | 5,282 |
| 24.7% | 24.4% | 13,766 |
| 34.7% | 34.9% | 6,821 |
| 44.6% | 46% | 5,063 |
| 54.5% | 54.4% | 3,066 |
| 64.4% | 64% | 1,634 |
| 74.1% | 75.4% | 696 |
| 84.2% | 87.6% | 250 |
| 92.8% | 93.2% | 59 |
AFC Bournemouth
AC Milan
Model pickAC Milan 36%
3-0
Missed
Omonia Nicosia
Benfica
Model pickBenfica 47%
1-4
Correct
Celtic
Celta de Vigo
Model pickCeltic 58%
1-2
Missed
Olympiacos F.C.
Sparta Praha
Model pickOlympiacos F.C. 48%
1-0
Correct
Lillestrøm
Real Sociedad
Model pickReal Sociedad 42%
0-6
Correct
Beşiktaş
Crystal Palace
Model pickBeşiktaş 65%
2-2
Missed
TSG Hoffenheim
Olympique Lyonnais
Model pickTSG Hoffenheim 41%
3-0
Correct
Jagiellonia Białystok
Anderlecht
Model pickJagiellonia Białystok 41%
0-3
Missed
The model blends team form, expected goals (xG), goal timing and head-to-heads with live bookmaker odds to price every outcome of every match.
Each match is simulated 100,000 times for scorelines, goal lines and both teams to score. Open the match simulator to watch one play out.
Every finished match is scored against the result and fed into the record above, so you can judge the numbers before you use them.
AI football predictions are match forecasts made by a statistical model rather than a pundit. For every match ours gives the chance of a home win, draw and away win, both teams to score, over and under 2.5 goals and the likeliest exact scores, then compares those numbers with the bookmakers.
Over the last 30 days we graded 12,459 finished matches against the final score. The model's pick for the match result was right 52% of the time (picking at random would be about 33%), and 69.9% of the time when it was at least 60% sure. Both teams to score calls were right 56.5% of the time and over/under 2.5 goals 60.4%. Just as important, the probabilities are honest: when the model says around 64%, it happens 64% of the time.
Chatbots like ChatGPT can write a convincing preview, but they are language models: they have no live odds, no injury feed and no calibrated sense of probability, and they tend to back the favourite. Our numbers come from a statistical model built on form, expected goals (xG), goal timing, head-to-heads and live bookmaker prices. AI language models only write the match previews, from those numbers.
The one that publishes its record. Look for two things: every pick graded against the result, not a highlight reel, and probabilities that are calibrated, so a 70% call wins about seven times in ten. We show both on this page, updated every few hours.
Yes. Win, draw and away chances, both teams to score, over and under 2.5 goals, the likeliest score, a written verdict and a 100,000-run simulation are free for every match. Pro adds every goal line and team total, ranking by model edge, probability filters and the full AI match report.
The model combines team form, expected goals (xG), goal-timing data, head-to-head records and live bookmaker odds to price every outcome. Each match is then simulated 100,000 times to produce scorelines and goal lines. It re-runs every few hours and again as kick-off approaches, so the numbers follow team news and price moves.
The gap between the model's probability and the bookmaker's. If the model gives a team a 55% chance and the odds imply 48%, that is a +7% edge: the bookmaker is pricing the outcome lower than the model expects. Positive edges are what value bettors look for.
Every upcoming match with bookmaker odds in the next seven days, from the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga, Ligue 1 and the Champions League to the EFL, MLS, Brazil, Japan and Scandinavia.
Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Please gamble responsibly, 18+.
Pachuca CF III
NSÍ II
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Accra Hearts of Oak