Model probabilities for every upcoming match — 1X2, BTTS, Over 2.5 & correct score — refreshed daily
Deportivo Cuenca Juniors to win 59.1%
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Deportivo Cuenca Juniors to win @ 1.95 model 59.1% vs 51.3% implied +7.8%
Home side holds +11% value edge
Our model shows a +11.47% value edge for a home win (odds 2.1 imply 47.62% chance vs model rating 59.09%). Deportivo Cuenca Juniors have been dominant at home, winning 4 of their last 5 matches and posting a 63% home win rate this season. They average 1.38 goals while conceding just 0.63 per home game, reinforcing the upside.
Over 2.5 goals 73.2%
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Rubio Ñú Res. to win @ 8.50 model 23.1% vs 11.8% implied +11.3%
Away win +11% value edge
Our model shows an 11.33% value advantage for an away victory. Rubio Ñú have won three of their last five matches and sit on a three‑game winning streak, with four of those games featuring both teams scoring. Their season away record includes a 100% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, underscoring strong attacking form.
Under 2.5 goals 54.4%
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Over 2.5 goals @ 2.60 model 45.6% vs 38.5% implied +7.1%
Over 2.5 Goals Value
Our model shows a +5.79% value edge for Over 2.5 goals. Racing's matches have gone over 2.5 goals in only 29% of home games, while Gimnasia exceeds the line in just 30% of away fixtures. In the last five games each side has produced over‑2.5 scores three times for Racing and once for Gimnasia, indicating a modest but worthwhile upside.
Both teams to score 63.9%
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HFX Wanderers to win @ 2.15 model 50.5% vs 46.5% implied +4%
Over 2.5 Goals – Strong scoring edge
Our model flags Under 2.5 goals as -10.3% value, meaning the market overestimates a low‑scoring game. The Wanderers’ matches go over 2.5 goals in 67% of home fixtures, while Supra does it in 50% of away games. Both sides also record BTTS in roughly two‑thirds of their games (64% and 73%). The data points to a high‑scoring encounter, making Over 2.5 the smarter pick.
Under 2.5 goals 56.3%
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Danubio to win @ 4.10 model 25.5% vs 24.4% implied +1.1%
Home win undervalued by 13%
Our model rates a Montevideo City Torque win at 45.66% versus the market implied 58.82% (odds 1.7), giving a –13.16% value edge. Torque win 44% of their home games this season and have kept unbeaten in their last two matches, while 78% of their home fixtures exceed 2.5 goals, indicating strong attacking form.
Both teams to score 53.6%
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Atlético Mineiro W to win @ 4.75 model 35.8% vs 21.1% implied +14.7%
Value Bet: Atlético Mineiro to Win
Our model shows a +13.58% edge for an away victory (model rating 35.80% vs odds implied 22.22%). Atlético Mineiro have won three of their last five away matches and hold a 33% away win rate this season. They average 1.33 goals per away game and are involved in both‑teams‑to‑score in 50% of all matches, supporting the upside.
Over 2.5 goals 73.1%
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New York RB II to win @ 1.95 model 58.1% vs 51.3% implied +6.8%
Goals galore – over 2.5 likely
New York RB II’s matches go over 2.5 goals in 89% of home games and Crown Legacy does it in 88% of away games. The last five head‑to‑head meetings averaged four goals, with three of those games topping 2.5. Our model’s value edge for the over‑2.5 market is only –1.31%, indicating the odds are close to fair, making the bet attractive.
Itabirito W to win 59.2%
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Rio Negro RR W to win @ 7.50 model 17.7% vs 13.3% implied +4.4%
Home win offers modest value
Our model shows a +5.20% edge for a Rio Negro RR home victory (model probability 17.7% versus the implied 12.5% from the 8.0 odds). Rio Negro win 60% of their home games this season and average two points per home match, indicating solid home form despite only one win in the last five.
Llaneros to win 58.9%
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Over 2.5 goals heavily overpriced
Our model shows a -13.22% value edge for Over 2.5 goals. Both sides rarely exceed that line this season – the home side has gone over 2.5 in only 22% of its home games and the visitors in 40% of their away matches. The last five head‑to‑head meetings averaged just 1.4 goals and only one match hit over 2.5, underscoring the low scoring trend.
Michigan Bucks to win 64.4%
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Core markets
Michigan Bucks to win @ 1.65 model 64.4% vs 60.6% implied +3.8%
Draw unlikely, odds overpriced
The model flags the draw market with a -7.24% edge, indicating the offered odds are too generous. Both sides have shown no draws in their last five outings (zero draws each) and season‑long draw rates are low – roughly 7% at home and 17% away – reinforcing the low probability of a stalemate.
Both teams to score 55.2%
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Under 2.5 Goals – Value Edge
Our model shows a -6.04% value edge for Under 2.5 goals (model rating 49.83% vs implied 55.87%). Portland’s matches go over 2.5 goals only 29% of the time at home, and Gotham exceeds 2.5 goals just 33% of their away games. Both low over‑2.5 rates reinforce the under‑2.5 opportunity.
Portuguesa to win 55.2%
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Both teams to score @ 2.50 model 42.4% vs 40% implied +2.4%
Home win undervalued by 15%
Our model rates a home victory at 55.2% while the bookmaker odds imply 70.4%, giving a -15.3% value edge. Portuguesa have won 86% of their home games this season and are on a four‑match unbeaten run, while Uberlândia’s away record, though solid, does not offset the home advantage. The odds mismatch combined with strong home form points to value on a home win.
Under 2.5 goals 60.9%
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Goiatuba EC to win @ 7.50 model 19.7% vs 13.3% implied +6.4%
Home side's flawless record defies odds
Our model shows a -5.89% edge for a home win (52.93% model rating vs 58.82% implied probability). Yet Ferroviário has won every home match this season (100% home win rate), keeps a clean sheet in 57% of those games, averages 2.29 goals at home and is on a four‑match unbeaten run. The combination of the model’s slight negative value and the team’s perfect home form makes the market worth a second look.
Under 2.5 goals 56.4%
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Over 2.5 goals @ 3.10 model 43.6% vs 32.3% implied +11.3%
Over 2.5 Goals – Strong Value Edge
Our model shows a +10.80% value edge for Over 2.5 Goals (model rating 43.59% vs implied 32.79%). Huracán's matches go over 2.5 in 63% of home games, while Banfield does so in 50% of away games. In the last five fixtures each side has already hit the over twice (Huracán 2, Banfield 1), indicating a high probability of a goal‑rich encounter.
Colo-Colo to win 68.7%
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Colo-Colo to win @ 1.53 model 68.7% vs 65.4% implied +3.3%
Draw offers hidden value (-6.78%)
Our model flags a -6.78% edge for a draw. The home side has not recorded any draws this season and none at home (0% draw rate), while the visitors have drawn only 20% of their games overall and 38% away. In the last five meetings each club managed just one draw, underscoring how rare a stalemate is, yet the odds are generous enough to create value.
Huachipato to win 57%
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Cobresal to win @ 5.50 model 19.2% vs 18.2% implied +1%
Home win overvalued – odds too short
Our model rates Huachipato's chance to win at 57% while the market implies 78%, a -20% value gap. The team has won 71% of its home games and every home match has gone over 2.5 goals (100%). Despite this, the price treats the win as almost certain, so the home win is not a value bet.
Both teams to score 52.9%
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Under 2.5 goals @ 2.35 model 52.5% vs 42.6% implied +9.9%
Under 2.5 Goals shows +6% edge
Our model gives a +5.95% value edge for Under 2.5 goals (model rating 51.40% vs implied 45.45%). The home side has managed just 4 goals in its last 5 matches (0.8 per game) and the visitors have allowed 8 in their last 5 (1.6 per game). The combination of low recent scoring and a solid defensive record supports the value indicated by the model.
Over 2.5 goals 71.1%
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O'Connor Knights U23 to win @ 3.60 model 45.5% vs 27.8% implied +17.7%
Home side heavily undervalued
Our model shows a -26.7% value edge for a home win at 1.62 odds. Belconnen United have won all five of their last matches and enjoy an 86% win rate at home this season, while O'Connor Knights have only a 33% overall win rate and just one win in their last five. The combination of Belconnen's form and the market's low implied probability highlights a strong undervaluation of the home side.
Both teams to score 53.9%
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Core markets
Under 2.5 Goals – Massive Value
Our model flags a -31.38% value edge for Under 2.5 goals. Vancouver exceeds 2.5 goals at home in just 43% of matches, while Cavalry does so away in 43% of games. Both sides also score late rarely (Vancouver 29% after the 70th minute, Cavalry 43%). The combination suggests a low‑scoring encounter.
Over 2.5 goals 81.6%
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Launceston City to win @ 1.70 model 70.2% vs 58.8% implied +11.4%
Launceston City to win – +13% value edge
Our model assigns a +13.02% value edge to an away win. Launceston City have won 83% of their away games this season and captured 4 of their last 5 away fixtures, currently riding a three‑match winning streak. In the five recent head‑to‑heads they have netted 20 goals – an average of four per game – underscoring their attacking strength.
Over 2.5 goals 77.2%
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Over 2.5 goals @ 1.36 model 77.2% vs 73.5% implied +3.7%
Draw looks overpriced
The model shows a -6.06% edge on the draw, while Canberra Olympic have drawn only 7% of all matches (17% at home) and Queanbeyan City just 8% overall (17% away). Neither side recorded a draw in their last five games and the home side is on a four‑match losing streak, indicating a low probability of a stalemate.
Over 2.5 goals 81.1%
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Over 2.5 goals @ 1.36 model 81.1% vs 73.5% implied +7.6%
Home win offers +7% edge
Our model shows a +7.04% value edge for a Cooma Tigers victory. The Tigers have won 67% of their home games this season and 89% of those matches have gone over 2.5 goals. In the last five head‑to‑head meetings they recorded two home wins versus one away win, underscoring their advantage.
Both teams to score 63.3%
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Dandenong Thunder to win @ 3.50 model 39% vs 28.6% implied +10.4%
Home win undervalued – +14% edge
The model gives Dandenong a 38.97% chance to win at home, while the 4.00 odds translate to a 25% implied probability – a +13.97% value edge. Dandenong’s season home win rate is only 20% and they have managed just one win in their last five matches, suggesting the market may be over‑reacting to recent form and offering upside on a home win.
Over 2.5 goals 67.1%
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Under 2.5 goals @ 3.25 model 32.9% vs 30.8% implied +2.1%
Under 2.5 goals looks promising
Our model flags a +2.38% edge for Under 2.5 goals. Bentleigh Greens average just 0.60 goals per home game (6 goals in 10 home matches) and have scored only 4 in their last 5. Melbourne City II manage only 0.78 goals per away game (7 in 9) and also netted 4 in their last 5. The combined low‑scoring profiles support a sub‑2.5 result.
Over 2.5 goals 72.2%
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Croydon Kings to win @ 2.20 model 46.3% vs 45.5% implied +0.8%
Draw offers solid value
Our model flags a -6.67% edge on the draw market. Both clubs have drawn only 22% of their games all season, and each has recorded two draws in their last five matches, indicating draws are relatively rare and the odds may be generous.
Over 2.5 goals 70.5%
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Over 2.5 goals @ 1.61 model 70.5% vs 62.1% implied +8.4%
Home win +8% on unbeaten run
Our model rates a home win at 59.12% versus the bookmaker’s implied 51.28%, giving a +7.84% value edge. Adelaide City have not lost at home in five matches, are unbeaten overall in their last five, and win 67% of their home games this season. They also lead 89% of the time at halftime at home. The combination of strong form and a clear value edge makes the home win a compelling bet.
APIA Leichhardt U20 to win 76.5%
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APIA Leichhardt U20 to win @ 1.50 model 76.5% vs 66.7% implied +9.8%
Home side holds +8.5% value edge
Our model shows an +8.45% value edge for a home win (model rating 76.48% vs implied 68.03%). APIA Leichhardt have been dominant at home, winning 92% of home games, averaging 3.08 goals while conceding just 1.00. Their recent form includes a current unbeaten streak. The combination suggests the home side is undervalued.
Over 2.5 goals 77.9%
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Sydney United U20 to win @ 1.62 model 65.9% vs 61.7% implied +4.2%
Skip Under 2.5 – odds overvalue low scores
Our model shows a -8.63% value edge for Under 2.5 goals. St. George City’s matches go over 2.5 goals in 92% of home games and 88% overall, while Sydney United does so in 83% of away games and 79% overall. The head‑to‑head average is 4.2 goals and every one of the last five meetings exceeded 2.5. The odds therefore overprice a low‑scoring outcome.
Over 2.5 goals 81.7%
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Gold Coast Knights U23 to win @ 1.73 model 71.1% vs 57.8% implied +13.3%
Home win offers +10% edge
Our model rates a home win at 71.07% versus the market implied 60.98%, giving a +10.09% value. Knights have won 75% of their home games this season and 4 of their last 5 fixtures, scoring over 2.5 goals in each. In the last five head‑to‑head meetings they have been victorious four times, with an average of 2.4 goals per game. The combination signals a strong upside on the home win.
Both teams to score 58.1%
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SD Raiders to win @ 4.20 model 24.3% vs 23.8% implied +0.5%
Home win offers modest value
Our model shows a +5.23% edge for a home win (model rating 24.28% vs market implied 19.05%). The Raiders have a 31% home win rate this season and have taken 2 wins in their last 5 home fixtures, indicating they can at least snag a point despite modest form.
APIA Leichhardt Tigers to win 66.2%
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Over 2.5 Goals likely undervalued
Our model flags a -9.0% value edge for Over 2.5 Goals. The home side’s matches go over 2.5 goals in 67% of home games and they’ve hit the over‑2.5 line in all five of their last five outings. Even the visitors reach the over‑2.5 mark in 36% of away games and did it three times in their last five. The combined trend makes the market too short.
Perth RedStar to win 59.1%
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Over 2.5 goals @ 1.57 model 68.2% vs 63.7% implied +4.5%
Draws overpriced – avoid the draw
Our model flags the draw market with a -5.9% value edge, meaning the odds are about six percent too generous. Perth RedStar recorded zero draws in its last five fixtures and only 22% of its games end in a draw overall. Balcatta managed just one draw in its last five and draws occur in only 11% of its matches overall. The combined scarcity of draws supports steering clear of this selection.
Over 2.5 goals 69.8%
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BTTS: No @ 3.25 model 33.6% vs 30.8% implied +2.8%
Over 2.5 Goals overpriced
Our model shows a -5.97% edge for Over 2.5 Goals (model 69.79% vs implied 75.76%). Both sides exceed the 2.5‑goal line in most matches – the home side does so in 67% of home games and the visitors in 63% of away games. The last three head‑to‑head meetings averaged a massive 6.33 goals and all three went over 2.5, yet the market is still over‑valuing this outcome.
Both teams to score 68.3%
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Olympic Kingsway to win @ 1.95 model 52.4% vs 51.3% implied +1.1%
Over 2.5 Goals likely overpriced
Our model shows a -5.32% value edge for Over 2.5 goals (model rating 68.21% vs implied 73.53%). Both sides regularly exceed 2.5 goals – the home side does so in 75% of its home games and the visitors in 80% of their away matches. The last five head‑to‑head meetings averaged 3.6 goals and all five went over 2.5, confirming a high‑scoring pattern that makes the market odds too short.
Over 2.5 goals 75.7%
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Flinders United W to win @ 9.00 model 28.6% vs 11.1% implied +17.5%
Flinders United upset? +22.7% value
Our model assigns a +22.69% edge to an away win, despite current odds of 17 (implied 5.88%). Flinders United have yet to win this season, with a 0% overall win rate and 0% win rate away, losing all five recent matches. They average just 0.43 goals per away game while conceding four per match and have not scored after the 70th minute. The stark contrast between the model edge and the team's season‑long struggles suggests the market may be over‑pricing this upset.
UWA Nedlands to win 75.2%
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Home side dominates on home turf
Our model shows a -9.58% value edge on the home win, meaning the 1.18 odds are too short. UWA Nedlands have won 88% of their home games and average 2.75 points per home match, while Curtin have managed only a 25% win rate away and just 1.13 points per away game. The disparity in home versus away form underlines the high probability of a home victory.
Over 2.5 goals 84.9%
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Darwin Olympic to win @ 2.00 model 50.2% vs 50% implied +0.2%
Draw looks overpriced
Our model flags a -6.47% edge on the draw, meaning the offered odds are too generous. Both sides rarely settle for a stalemate – the home side has drawn only 20% of its games all season and just one draw in its last five, while the visitors have not drawn at all this year. The low draw frequency backs the model’s view that a draw is unlikely.
Over 2.5 goals 67%
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Balcatta W to win @ 2.30 model 54.2% vs 43.5% implied +10.7%
Balcatta primed for away win (+14% edge)
Our model shows a +14.17% value edge for an away win. Balcatta have won 71% of their away games this season and are unbeaten in their last five, with a current win streak. In the last five head‑to‑head meetings they have triumphed three times, including four wins out of five overall. Their attack averages two goals per game while conceding less than half a goal, underscoring their superiority.
Both teams to score 61.3%
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Under 2.5 goals @ 2.70 model 39.8% vs 37% implied +2.8%
Over 2.5 goals looks overpriced
Our model rates the chance of more than 2.5 goals at 60.2%, while the market implies 68.5%, giving an ~8.3% negative value. Both sides are attack‑heavy this season – Shanghai Port’s matches go over 2.5 goals in 75% of home games and Shanghai Shenhua in 63% of away games – yet the model still finds the odds too generous.
Under 2.5 goals 62.1%
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BTTS likely – market overprices it
Our model rates BTTS at 45.4% while the market implies 51.0%, giving a -5.62% value edge – the odds are too high. In the last five meetings 4 matches featured both teams scoring (80%). Pohang have BTTS in only 13% of home games but Jeonbuk do so in 40% of away games, and both sides recorded BTTS in 3 of Pohang’s and 2 of Jeonbuk’s last‑5 fixtures. The convergence suggests BTTS is a solid play despite the over‑priced odds.
Under 2.5 goals 53.8%
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Jeonnam Dragons to win @ 2.38 model 42.6% vs 42% implied +0.6%
Gyeongnam away win value -9.3%
Our model shows a -9.28% value edge for an away win. Gyeongnam have won 35% of all their games and 14% of away fixtures this season, and collected 2 wins in their last five outings. Jeonnam, by contrast, have only a 12% overall win rate and 20% at home, with just one win in their last five. The statistical gap supports the model’s away‑win edge.
Both teams to score 61.6%
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Suwon to win @ 3.50 model 37.1% vs 28.6% implied +8.5%
Suwon away win +8.8% value
Our model shows a +8.78% edge for an Suwon away victory. Suwon have been unbeaten in their last five league games (3 wins, 2 draws) and are on a five‑match unbeaten streak. They record BTTS in 89% of their away fixtures and over 2.5 goals in 89% of away matches, while their recent five outings produced BTTS in four games and over 2.5 goals in all five. The combination of strong form and high scoring rates backs the positive value.
Both teams to score 54.5%
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BTTS Yes offers solid value edge
Our model shows a -5.37% value edge for Both Teams to Score. Both sides have high BTTS rates this season – the home side sees both‑team scores in 71% of its matches and the visitors in 41%. In the last five games each club recorded BTTS twice (home) and three times (away), reinforcing the likelihood despite the odds.
Over 2.5 goals 82.3%
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Ullern to win @ 2.90 model 43.4% vs 34.5% implied +8.9%
Home win offers hidden +9% edge
Our model shows a +8.9% value edge for a home win (odds 2.9, implied 34.5%). Ullern’s home games have gone over 2.5 goals in 100% of matches and feature BTTS in 83% of them, indicating a very attacking environment. Heming’s away win rate is only 50% and they concede 2.17 goals on average, which together make the home side more likely to win than the market suggests.
Over 2.5 goals 81.7%
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Grei to win @ 2.20 model 54.5% vs 45.5% implied +9%
Home win +9% value edge
Our model rates a home win at 54.5% versus the market implied 45.5%, giving a +9.0% value edge. Grei have won only 17% of their home games this season and none in their last five, yet every home match has gone over 2.5 goals and both teams have scored in 100% of those games, indicating the match will be high‑scoring and a home win is undervalued.
Both teams to score 56.7%
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MP to win @ 5.25 model 25.4% vs 19% implied +6.4%
Home win undervalued despite KTP's away form
Our model shows a +8.43% edge for a home victory (model rating 25.38% vs implied 16.95%). KTP boast a 71% win rate away and average 2.13 points per away game, yet MP win 67% of their home matches at halftime and score in the first half in 100% of home games. These contrasting strengths suggest the market is under‑pricing MP.
Drøbak / Frogn to win 68.4%
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Brumunddal to win @ 7.50 model 16.1% vs 13.3% implied +2.8%
Home win offers hidden value
Our model rates a home win at 68.38% while the market implies 80%, creating a -11.62% value edge. The home side wins 40% of its matches at this venue and its games go over 2.5 goals in 80% of home outings. They are also on a two‑game winning streak and unbeaten in the last three, reinforcing the upside despite the short odds.
Over 2.5 goals 72.2%
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Core markets
PKKU to win @ 4.20 model 36.1% vs 23.8% implied +12.3%
Upset potential: PKKU to win
Our model shows a +12.29% value edge for PKKU winning. PKKU’s away win rate this season is 43% and they average 2.14 goals per away game. In the last five away matches they recorded two wins, one draw and two losses, indicating they can still take points on the road. The combination of solid away scoring and the model’s positive value makes an upset plausible.
Djurgården to win 60.7%
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Djurgården to win @ 1.83 model 60.7% vs 54.6% implied +6.1%
Over 2.5 goals looks cheap
Our model flags a -5.26% value edge for the Over 2.5‑goals market (model rating 53.6% vs odds implying 58.8%). Both sides are prone to high‑scoring games – the home side’s matches go over 2.5 goals in 57% of its home fixtures, while the visitors exceed 2.5 goals in 75% of their away outings. The combination of a sizable negative value indication and two teams that regularly produce three‑goal games makes the market appear overpriced.
Both teams to score 56.9%
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Draw offers hidden value
Our model flags a -5.58% value edge on the draw. Kalmar have not drawn in their last five matches, while Mjällby have recorded three draws in the same span. Season‑long draw rates are low for Kalmar (8%) but considerably higher for Mjällby (38%). This mix of recent and overall draw frequencies suggests a draw is more likely than the odds imply.
Honka to win 79.9%
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Both teams to score @ 1.80 model 60.7% vs 55.6% implied +5.1%
Home win overvalued despite dominance
Our model rates a home win at roughly 80% but the market implies about 91%, creating an -11% value gap. Honka have won 3 of their last 5 home games and are unbeaten at home (3 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses). Their recent form (3‑2‑0) and 50% home win rate underline the strength, yet the odds are too short.
Over 2.5 goals 80.6%
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Over 2.5 Goals Overpriced
Our model rates the chance of both sides scoring over 2.5 goals at 80.55%, while the odds imply an 87.72% probability – a –7.17% value gap. Both clubs exceed the 2.5‑goal line in roughly two‑thirds of their games (67% each) and the last five meetings averaged 4.8 goals, with every match going over 2.5. The odds therefore overstate the likelihood.
Oulu to win 56.2%
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Mariehamn to win @ 5.25 model 20.9% vs 19% implied +1.9%
Oulu win odds lack true value
Our model flags an -8.36% value gap for an Oulu away win, meaning the offered odds (1.55) overstate their chance. Oulu have managed just one win, one draw and three defeats in their last five matches, scoring only four goals while conceding twelve. Moreover, they score after the 70th minute in only 11% of away games. Although they have three H2H victories, the current form and timing stats suggest a low probability of winning.
Both teams to score 51%
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BTTS: No @ 2.25 model 49% vs 44.4% implied +4.6%
Over 2.5 goals looks lucrative
Our model assigns a 50.70% chance of more than 2.5 goals, yet the market odds imply 58.82%, giving a -8.12% value edge. The last five meetings averaged 3.2 goals and produced over 2.5 goals in three games. Kristiansund’s home matches go over 2.5 goals in 50% of outings, while Start does so in 75% of away games. All signs point to a high‑scoring encounter.
Hammarby W to win 59.6%
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Hammarby primed for away win
Our model flags a -7.03% value edge for an Hammarby away victory (model rating 59.64% vs market implied 66.67%). Hammarby win 83% of their away games this season and have taken 3 wins in their last 5 outings, currently on a two‑match unbeaten run. Norrköping, by contrast, win only 17% at home and have just lost their most recent match. Despite only one away win in the last five head‑to‑heads, the season‑long form gives Hammarby a clear edge.
Over 2.5 goals 69.6%
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ÍR to win @ 3.80 model 31.5% vs 26.3% implied +5.2%
Home win undervalued
Our model rates a home win probability of 31.43% versus the market implied 23.09%, giving an +8.34% value edge. The home side has only a 29% win rate at home this season and has failed to win any of its last five matches, underscoring that the odds may be undervalued.
Galway United to win 56.3%
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Galway United to win @ 1.90 model 56.3% vs 52.6% implied +3.7%
Away win odds overpriced – steer clear
Our model rates Waterford’s chance at about 20% while the market implies roughly 28%, a -7.77% value gap. Waterford have won only 17% of their away games this season (2 wins in 12 away matches) and average just 1.5 goals per away game. In the last five outings they managed three wins, one draw and one loss, confirming a low probability and making the offered odds unattractive.
Under 2.5 goals 53.9%
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Sligo Rovers to win @ 2.70 model 42.9% vs 37% implied +5.9%
Home win offers +5.8% edge
Our model shows a +5.83% value advantage for a Sligo Rovers win. The Rovers are unbeaten in their latest match and win 25% of home games this season, while Drogheda win only 25% of away fixtures. The model also rates an away win -11.92% below the odds, meaning the market overvalues the visitors. Together these points make the home win a clear value pick.
Under 2.5 goals 67.9%
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Under 2.5 goals @ 1.50 model 67.9% vs 66.7% implied +1.2%
Under 2.5 goals offers solid value
Our model shows a -11.5% value edge for Under 2.5 goals, rating the outcome at 67.85% versus an implied 79.37% from the 1.26 odds. Both sides typically keep scores low – the home side’s matches go over 2.5 goals only 38% of the time at home, meaning under 2.5 occurs about 62%, and the visitors have the same 38% over‑2.5 rate away. In the last five games each club recorded just three (home) and two (away) over‑2.5 results. The head‑to‑head record averages exactly two goals per game and only one of the three meetings exceeded 2.5. All signs point to a sub‑2.5 encounter.
Under 2.5 goals 69.2%
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Atlas win odds overpriced
Our model assigns a 31.22% chance of an Atlas victory, while the bookmaker’s odds imply a 37.04% probability – a -5.8% value gap. Atlas have won 4 of their last 5 matches and are unbeaten in 5, yet their season‑long home win rate is only 33%. The combination suggests the home win market is overvalued.
Over 2.5 goals 67.8%
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Goal fest likely – Over 2.5 goals
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 67.79% versus an implied 72.99%, creating a -5.20% value edge. The last five head‑to‑head meetings averaged 4.8 goals and all five exceeded 2.5. Both clubs also post high season over‑2.5 frequencies (home side 67% overall, away side 57% away), reinforcing a strong goal‑rich outlook.
Al Sahel to win 63.5%
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Al Sahel to win @ 2.70 model 63.5% vs 37% implied +26.5%
Al Sahel away win +28% value
Our model assigns a +28.01% value edge to an Al Sahel away victory. The visitors have won every away game this season (6 wins, 0 losses, 100% away win rate) and score 2.5 goals per away match while keeping clean sheets in 67% of them. Their recent form includes a two‑match winning streak, reinforcing the upside.
Under 2.5 goals 72.9%
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Over 2.5 goals overpriced – avoid
Our model flags Over 2.5 goals as -6.18% value, meaning the odds (3.0) overestimate the chance. The last five meetings produced just 1.8 goals on average and only two games went over 2.5. This aligns with both sides’ season rates – the home side exceeds 2.5 in 40% of home games while the visitors do so in only 20% overall, and neither team hit the over‑2.5 line in their last five fixtures.
Under 2.5 goals 61.8%
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Nacional Asunción to win @ 2.30 model 44.8% vs 43.5% implied +1.3%
Home win overvalued – back the visitors
Our model rates a home win at only 25.8% versus the market implied 32.7%, a -6.9% value gap, indicating the odds overprice the home side. Sportivo Ameliano have won just 36% of their home games and managed only one victory in their last five, while Nacional Asunción have secured four wins in five and are unbeaten in five, with a 27% away win rate. The data points to backing the away win.
Over 2.5 goals 71.9%
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Guabirá to win @ 1.80 model 61% vs 55.6% implied +5.4%
Draw offers hidden value despite no past draws
Our model shows a -5.55% value edge for a draw. The two recent head‑to‑head meetings produced 13 total goals and no draws (0 draws in 2 games). Both sides have been scoring heavily (average 6.5 goals per meeting), which usually leads to wins, making a draw unlikely yet the odds are overpriced.
Over 2.5 goals 68.8%
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North Texas to win @ 2.55 model 46.9% vs 39.2% implied +7.7%
Draw offers hidden value
Our model shows a -6.5% value edge on the draw (model rating 21.28% vs implied 27.78%). Both sides have modest win rates—North Texas wins 35% of games overall and LAFC 2 wins 39%—and their recent five‑match form includes only two wins each and multiple draws (North Texas 1 draw, LAFC 2 two draws). The low win percentages make a stalemate more probable than the odds suggest.
Detroit City to win 54%
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Under 2.5 goals @ 2.07 model 52.3% vs 48.3% implied +4%
Home win odds overpriced by 11%
Our model assigns a 54% chance of a Detroit City victory, yet the bookmaker’s odds imply a 65% probability – a -11.3% value gap. Detroit’s home dominance supports this: they win 86% of home games, have a five‑match unbeaten streak and have scored 12 goals in their last five home fixtures, underscoring their strength.
Indy Eleven to win 53.9%
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Under 2.5 goals @ 2.15 model 51.6% vs 46.5% implied +5.1%
Under 2.5 goals looks undervalued
Our model flags the Over 2.5 market with a -12.91% edge (model rating 48.44% vs implied 61.35%). Both sides exceed 2.5 goals in just over half their games – the home side 57% at home and the visitors 50% away – and they score late goals rarely (29% and 17% of their goals come after the 70th minute). These season trends support betting the Under 2.5 goals.
Over 2.5 goals 56.5%
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Sporting JAX to win @ 6.25 model 22.9% vs 16% implied +6.9%
Surprising value on Sporting JAX away win
Our model assigns a 22.9% chance to an away victory, versus a 16.7% implied by the 6.0 odds, giving a +6.21% value edge. Sporting JAX have won none of their eight away games this season (0% away win rate) and score just 0.88 goals per away match, yet the odds undervalue this low‑probability outcome, making the away win a value pick.
Deportes Tolima to win 57.6%
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Deportes Tolima to win @ 2.00 model 57.6% vs 50% implied +7.6%
Both Teams to Score Yes is overpriced
Our model shows a -5.68% edge for BTTS Yes, meaning the odds overstate the chance. Both sides only hit BTTS in under half of their games this season (43% for the home side, 48% for the visitors) and the last five head‑to‑head meetings produced zero BTTS matches. Recent form also reflects few shared scores (home 1 BTTS, away 2). All signs point to a low probability of both teams scoring.
Under 2.5 goals 59.4%
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Internacional de Bogotá to win @ 3.25 model 39.9% vs 30.8% implied +9.1%
Home side holds +9% edge
Our model rates a home win at 39.97% while the market implies only 30.77%, creating a +9.20% value edge. Internacional de Bogotá scores 1.70 goals per home game and concedes just 1.10, winning half of its home fixtures. In the last five matches they secured two victories, reinforcing their home advantage.
Over 2.5 goals 62.6%
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BTTS: No @ 2.75 model 39% vs 36.4% implied +2.6%
Under 2.5 goals offers +6% edge
Our model shows a +5.997% value edge for an Under 2.5‑goals bet (model probability 39.33% vs implied 33.33%). Columbus has kept a clean sheet in 43% of home games and concedes only 0.86 goals per game at home, with just 29% of their home matches exceeding 2.5 goals. These defensive strengths support the undervalued under‑2.5 market.
Both teams to score 56.3%
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Under 2.5 goals @ 2.35 model 46.9% vs 42.6% implied +4.3%
Over 2.5 goals heavily overpriced
Our model rates the over‑2.5‑goals market at 52.89% while the odds imply an 84.75% chance, creating a -31.86% value edge. Both clubs are goal‑rich: Orlando’s games go over 2.5 goals in 73% of all matches and 71% at home, and Nashville exceeds 2.5 goals in 60% of its outings. The market is therefore too generous on this high‑scoring line.
Over 2.5 goals 60.3%
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Under 2.5 goals @ 2.87 model 39.6% vs 34.8% implied +4.8%
Under 2.5 Goals – +9.3% Edge
Our model shows a +9.33% value edge for Under 2.5 goals (model rating 40.10% vs implied 30.77%). CF Montréal’s matches have gone over 2.5 goals in only 43% of home games, while Inter Miami’s away games exceed 2.5 goals in 78% – a split that pulls the overall total down. Adding Montréal’s recent five‑game record of just three over‑2.5 results reinforces the under‑2.5 line as undervalued.
Under 2.5 goals 56.5%
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Under 2.5 goals @ 1.90 model 56.5% vs 52.6% implied +3.9%
Low-scoring outlook with value
Our model assigns a +7.25% edge to the Under 2.5 Goals market. Toronto have managed just 5 goals in 6 away fixtures, averaging only 0.83 per game, while DC United score just 11 at home and only 57% of their goals come after the 70th minute, indicating few late strikes. Together with the positive value indication, betting the match to finish under 2.5 goals looks attractive.
Both teams to score 53.9%
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New England to win @ 2.10 model 49.7% vs 47.6% implied +2.1%
BTTS Yes offers hidden value
Our model shows a -5.44% value edge for Both Teams to Score (BTTS) – rating 54.44% versus the implied 59.88% from odds of 1.67. New England produces BTTS in 50% of its home games and 57% overall, while Atlanta manages BTTS in only 29% of its away fixtures (53% overall). The combined BTTS frequency aligns more with the model rating, indicating a worthwhile BTTS bet.
Both teams to score 62.8%
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Over 2.5 Goals – Market Overpriced
Our model flags a -23.68% value edge for Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.20). Both clubs are heavy on scoring: the home side’s games exceed 2.5 goals in 75% of its home fixtures, and the visitors do so in 67% of their away matches. This clash of high‑scoring teams makes the market odds appear too low for the true likelihood of a goal‑rich game.
Both teams to score 53.1%
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Minnesota United to win @ 3.60 model 36.1% vs 27.8% implied +8.3%
BTTS No offers +5.7% edge
Our model shows a +5.70% value edge for the 'Both Teams to Score – No' market (model rating 47.72% vs implied 42.02%). Minnesota’s home BTTS rate is just 29% and Vancouver’s away BTTS rate is 83%, pulling the combined likelihood below the market expectation and supporting the value.
Both teams to score 59.5%
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Under 2.5 goals @ 2.70 model 42% vs 37% implied +5%
Undervalued Under 2.5 Goals
Our model assigns a 40.5% chance to an under‑2.5 result while the odds suggest only 33.6%, creating a +6.93% value edge. Yet San Diego’s home games have gone over 2.5 goals in 89% of matches and Dallas’s away fixtures in 67%, indicating the market is over‑pricing the over and the under offers hidden value.
Both teams to score 56.1%
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BTTS: No @ 2.75 model 43.9% vs 36.4% implied +7.5%
Under 2.5 Goals +12% Value Edge
Our model rates the Under 2.5‑goals market at 46.3% versus the bookmaker implied 34.3%, creating a +12.0% value edge. Both sides are low‑scoring this season – Real Salt Lake average only 1.33 goals per away game and Portland average 2.33 at home, with overall goals per match of 1.80 and 1.86 respectively – reinforcing the likelihood of fewer than 2.5 goals.
Cruzeiro to win 54.1%
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Botafogo to win @ 5.00 model 21.5% vs 20% implied +1.5%
Under 2.5 Goals likely overpriced
Our model shows a -6.28% value edge for Under 2.5 goals. Yet Cruzeiro’s matches go over 2.5 goals in 60% of home games and Botafogo does so in 70% of away games. The last five head‑to‑head meetings averaged 3.6 goals, indicating a high‑scoring pattern. The market appears to overvalue the low‑scoring option.
Palmeiras to win 62.7%
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Palmeiras to win @ 1.67 model 62.7% vs 59.9% implied +2.8%
Bet on No Both Teams To Score
Our model shows a -6.16% value edge for the No BTTS market (model rating 52.66% vs implied 58.82%). Palmeiras forces a BTTS in two‑thirds of its games at home (67%) but overall only 61%, while Atlético struggles to see both sides score away (just 20%). The combined low BTTS propensity supports the value in betting No BTTS.
Universidad Católica to win 68.9%
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Over 2.5 goals @ 1.65 model 62.3% vs 60.6% implied +1.7%
Over 2.5 goals – odds undervalue the high‑scoring trend
Our model shows a -7.78% value edge for Under 2.5 goals, meaning the market overprices a low‑scoring result. Universidad Católica’s matches go over 2.5 goals in 86% of home games and La Serena does so in 57% of away games. The last five head‑to‑head meetings averaged three goals, with three games exceeding 2.5. Together these data suggest the Over 2.5 market is the smarter play.
Both teams to score 55%
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Ñublense to win @ 2.20 model 46.1% vs 45.5% implied +0.6%
Draw offers hidden value
Our model flags a -6.29% value edge for a draw. Ñublense have drawn 47% of their games this season and recorded only one draw in their last five, while Palestino have not drawn any league match and also have just one draw in their last five. The rarity of draws for both sides suggests the market odds may be generous.
Independiente del Valle to win 54.7%
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Orense to win @ 5.50 model 21.3% vs 18.2% implied +3.1%
Independiente del Valle to win away
Our model shows a -7.78% value edge for an away win, with a rating of 54.72% versus the market implied 62.5% from odds of 1.60. Independiente del Valle have won 90% of their away games this season and are on a five‑match winning streak, having taken 5 points from their last 5. In the most recent head‑to‑head they beat Orense 2‑0, and overall the two sides are even (2 wins each, 1 draw) in the last five meetings, giving the visitors confidence.
Over 2.5 goals 59.5%
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Home win undervalued by market
Our model shows a -12.44% value edge for a home victory; the odds imply a 62.5% chance while the model rates it at 50.06%. Auda have won half of their home games this season (50%) and are unbeaten in their last two fixtures, collecting 8 points from five matches. This blend suggests the market is overpricing the home side.
Under 2.5 goals 72.7%
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Lanús to win @ 2.00 model 50.4% vs 50% implied +0.4%
Lanús’ slump dims home win odds
Lanús have managed just one win and four defeats in their last five matches, scoring only two goals. Moreover, only 25% of their season goals come after the 70th minute, limiting late comebacks. Our model assigns a –3.84% edge against the home‑win odds, reflecting the poor form and low late‑goal propensity.
Melgar to win 65.4%
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Melgar to win @ 1.70 model 65.4% vs 58.8% implied +6.6%
Home win offers +9.8% value edge
Our model shows a +9.83% edge for a Melgar win. Melgar have won 67% of their home games this season and are unbeaten in their last two home matches (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss in the last five). In the last five meetings they have three home victories over Cristal, reinforcing the advantage.
Over 2.5 goals 72.5%
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Kahibah to win @ 3.30 model 34.4% vs 30.3% implied +4.1%
Draw offers hidden value
Our model shows a -5.36% value edge on the draw. Kahibah have drawn only 11% of their games this season and none in their last five, while Belmont Swansea have drawn 29% overall and just one in their last five. The scarcity of recent draws suggests the market may be over‑pricing a stalemate.
Maitland W to win 76.1%
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Lake Macquarie City W to win @ 11.00 model 10.7% vs 9.1% implied +1.6%
Maitland dominate – huge win edge
Our model shows a -10.09% value edge for an away win (model rating 76.12% vs implied 86.21% from odds 1.16). Maitland have won 86% of all games and 83% away, scoring an average of 4.57 goals while conceding only 0.64. In the last five matches they recorded four wins, 22 goals and just four conceded, confirming their attacking dominance.
Over 2.5 goals 82.8%
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North Lakes United to win @ 7.00 model 16.2% vs 14.3% implied +1.9%
Newmarket’s away win is over‑priced
Our model rates an away win at 70% but the market implies 78.74%, a -8.74% value gap. Newmarket have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring 27 goals while conceding only 4, and boast a 70% win rate away from home. The combination suggests the odds are too short despite the team’s strong form.
Over 2.5 goals 82.3%
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Over 2.5 goals @ 1.25 model 82.3% vs 80% implied +2.3%
Panthers primed for another away win
Our model flags a -7.55% value edge for an away win. Monaro Panthers have won all five of their last matches, scoring 27 goals while conceding just five, and they’re unbeaten in their last five. The only head‑to‑head meeting saw the Panthers beat Juventus 5‑3, a total of eight goals, underscoring their attacking edge.
Mindil Aces to win 70.3%
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Hellenic Athletic to win @ 9.00 model 15.8% vs 11.1% implied +4.7%
Home win offers hidden value
The model assigns a +9.17% edge to a Hellenic Athletic victory, even though they have won only 13% of their home matches this season and average just 1.88 goals at home. Meanwhile the visitors boast a 63% away win rate. The gap between the odds (15.0) and the model’s rating (15.84) signals overpriced home odds.
Under 2.5 goals 59.8%
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Bucheon 1995 to win @ 5.00 model 23.4% vs 20% implied +3.4%
Home win overpriced – odds too low
The model assigns a -11.56% value edge to a Home win (rating 48.32% vs odds 1.67 implying 59.88%). Incheon’s season home win rate sits at 40% and they have dropped 2 of their last 5 home matches, scoring just 11 goals in 10 home games (1.10 per game). Such modest form suggests the market is over‑valuing the home side.
Under 2.5 goals 57.6%
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Under 2.5 goals @ 1.93 model 57.6% vs 51.8% implied +5.8%
Over 2.5 Goals likely over‑priced
Our model rates the over‑2.5‑goals outcome at 42.37% versus the market‑implied 53.19%, creating a –10.82% value edge. Paju’s games exceed 2.5 goals in only 38% of home matches, while Ansan does so in 50% of away games. The last five head‑to‑head meetings average three goals and the most recent was over 2.5, but the season‑long scoring rates are modest, supporting the lower probability.
Shandong Taishan to win 57.1%
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BTTS: No @ 2.75 model 44.4% vs 36.4% implied +8%
Under 2.5 Goals – +8.6% Value Edge
Our model assigns an +8.61% value edge to the Under 2.5‑goals market. The away side scores just 1.0 goal per game on the road, while the home side concedes only 1.44 per game at home, giving an expected total of about 2.44 goals – below the 2.5 threshold. This statistical backdrop supports the model’s positive valuation.
Over 2.5 goals 57.8%
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Draw unlikely – odds overvalued
Our model shows a -7.27% value edge on the draw, meaning the market is over‑priced. Both sides have virtually no recent draws – Sundsvall recorded zero draws in their last five matches and have a 0% draw rate this season, while Falkenberg have drawn only once in their last five and sit at a 27% season‑long draw rate. The combination suggests a draw is unlikely and the offered odds are not worth the risk.
Over 2.5 goals 67.1%
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IFK Göteborg to win @ 6.50 model 22.1% vs 15.4% implied +6.7%
Value on IFK Göteborg to win
Our model rates an IFK Göteborg away win at 21.9% while the market odds imply a 16.7% chance, creating a +5.24% value edge. Göteborg have only a 23% overall win rate and have won just 1 of their last 5 matches, losing the other four, indicating the odds are generous relative to their recent form.
Both teams to score 55.4%
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Elfsborg to win @ 4.00 model 26.4% vs 25% implied +1.4%
Goal fest likely – Over 2.5
Our model flags a -5.62% value edge for Over 2.5 goals. Malmö have gone over 2.5 in 69% of all matches and in every home game this season, while Elfsborg exceed 2.5 in 43% overall and 50% of their away fixtures. The combined scoring trends point to a high‑scoring encounter.
Both teams to score 51.8%
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Under 2.5 goals @ 2.35 model 51.3% vs 42.6% implied +8.7%
HamKam away win offers value
Our model rates an away win at 32.18% versus the implied 27.03% from the 3.7 odds, creating a +5.15% value edge. HamKam have yet to win on the road this season (0 away wins, 0% away win rate) and average only 0.60 points per away game, yet the model still finds upside.
Viking to win 57.6%
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Under 2.5 goals @ 2.87 model 47% vs 34.8% implied +12.2%
Under 2.5 Goals offers +11% value
Our model assigns a +11.27% value edge to the Under 2.5 Goals market (implied probability 35.71% vs odds 2.8). Viking concede only 0.86 goals per away game and just 57% of their away matches exceed 2.5 goals, indicating a low‑scoring tendency. Aalesund’s home games do see many goals (86% over 2.5), but the combined season averages (Viking’s 1.43 away scoring, Aalesund’s 1.71 home scoring) suggest a tighter affair, making the cheap under 2.5 odds attractive.
Over 2.5 goals 65.8%
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Strømmen to win @ 3.30 model 37.8% vs 30.3% implied +7.5%
Value Bet: Home Win at +7% Edge
Our model rates Strømmen’s win chance at 37.8% (model rating) versus the 30.8% implied by the 3.25 odds, giving a +7.0% value edge. Strømmen have won only 29% of their home games this season and secured just one win in the last two head‑to‑head meetings with Odd, but 86% of their home matches exceed 2.5 goals, indicating they can produce enough goals to secure a win.
Both teams to score 66.3%
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Åsane to win @ 3.50 model 35.9% vs 28.6% implied +7.3%
Away win overvalued – odds too generous
Our model shows a -6.48% value edge for an away victory (model rating 41.14% vs implied 47.62%). Egersund win only 17% of their away games this season and have dropped their last two away fixtures, with a current streak of two losses. The combination of a low away‑win percentage and recent poor form suggests the market is overpricing the away win.
Over 2.5 goals 63.4%
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Sandnes Ulf to win @ 3.30 model 42.6% vs 30.3% implied +12.3%
Home win +11% value edge
Our model rates a home win at 42.62% versus the market implied 31.25%, giving a +11.37% value edge. Sandnes have won 57% of their home games this season and collected 3 wins in their last five, showing solid recent form. In the last five head‑to‑heads they have 2 wins, keeping the contest tight but still favorable.
Moss to win 62.6%
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Moss to win @ 1.70 model 62.6% vs 58.8% implied +3.8%
Draw offers hidden value
Our model flags a -6.16% value edge for a draw. In the last five head‑to‑head meetings the sides have drawn twice (40%). Moss managed only one draw in its last five games, while Raufoss has none, indicating a draw is less likely to be priced correctly by the market.
Over 2.5 goals 69.6%
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Under 2.5 goals @ 4.00 model 30.4% vs 25% implied +5.4%
Draw market overpriced – avoid
The model shows a -5.08% value gap for a draw. Both sides rarely settle for a stalemate – the home side draws only 21% of matches overall and 17% at home, while the visitors have not drawn a single away game this season (0%). In the last five fixtures each team has recorded zero draws. With such low draw frequencies, the current odds are not offering value.
Gimnasia Jujuy to win 63.4%
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Both teams to score @ 2.50 model 40.7% vs 40% implied +0.7%
BTTS No offers hidden value
Our model rates a No‑Both‑Teams‑To‑Score outcome at 59.3% with a -5.24% value edge versus the market’s 64.5% implied probability. Both sides score in 60% of Gimnasia’s games and in 78% of Güemes’ away matches, making a clean‑sheet result surprisingly undervalued.
Atlético Ottawa to win 58.6%
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Under 2.5 goals @ 2.50 model 42.2% vs 40% implied +2.2%
Home side's edge despite short odds
Our model shows a -6.81% value edge for a home win (58.55% model probability vs 65.36% implied). Atlético Ottawa have won 50% of their home games, are on a two‑match winning streak, and score before the 70th minute in 83% of home matches. The market is pricing the win too heavily despite these strengths.
Over 2.5 goals 68.2%
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BTTS: No @ 3.40 model 32.7% vs 29.4% implied +3.3%
Goal feast likely – Over 2.5
Our model shows a -8.53% value edge for Over 2.5 goals, meaning the market overestimates this outcome. The home side exceeds 2.5 goals in 50% of its home games and the visitors in 86% of their away matches. Season‑long over‑2.5 rates sit at 67% for each club. The last five head‑to‑head meetings averaged 3.2 goals and every game went over 2.5.
Over 2.5 goals 78%
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Over 2.5 goals @ 1.30 model 78% vs 76.9% implied +1.1%
Draw offers +5% value edge
Our model shows a -5.17% value edge for a draw. Fram have taken 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in their last five, while FH have not lost in five, recording four draws and a win. The recent head‑to‑head meetings also produced a draw once in five games.
Rīgas FS to win 79.8%
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Under 2.5 goals @ 3.00 model 36.8% vs 33.3% implied +3.5%
Over 2.5 goals heavily overpriced
Our model flags a -10.37% value gap for the Over 2.5‑goals market. Tukums’ home matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 73% of games and they average two goals per home game, while Rīgas FS hits the over‑2.5 mark in half of its away fixtures and scores 1.83 goals on average away. The combined scoring profile suggests plenty of goals, yet the market odds are too short.
Both teams to score 61%
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AIK to win @ 4.00 model 39.6% vs 25% implied +14.6%
AIK away win offers +13% value
Our model assigns a +13.27% edge to an AIK victory, and AIK have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring 9 goals away. They also record BTTS in 100% of away games and over‑2.5 goals in 71% of away fixtures, underscoring their attacking strength. The head‑to‑head record shows AIK have already secured an away win in the last five meetings, supporting the value.
Over 2.5 goals 70.8%
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Undervalued Under 2.5 Goals
Our model shows a -5.06% value edge for Under 2.5 goals versus the current odds of 2.92. Yet the home side has gone over 2.5 goals in 86% of its home matches and the visitors in 71% of their away games. The last five head‑to‑head meetings averaged 2.8 goals and produced over 2.5 goals in three games, indicating the market may be over‑pricing the over. The under‑2.5 line therefore offers genuine value.
Over 2.5 goals 68.2%
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Draw offers hidden value
Our model shows a -5.43% edge on the draw, rating it at 19.57% versus the market’s implied 25%. Both sides have struggled to win lately – the home side managed just one win and one draw in its last five, while the visitors recorded one win and two draws. The five recent head‑to‑heads produced no draws and averaged only 1.8 goals, underscoring the difficulty of breaking the deadlock. These factors suggest the draw is undervalued.
Over 2.5 goals 76.2%
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Over 2.5 goals @ 1.40 model 76.2% vs 71.4% implied +4.8%
Away win offers +15% value edge
Our model flags a +14.96% value advantage on the away side. Charlestown Azzurri have gone unbeaten in their last two outings and score 2.33 goals per away game, while Newcastle Olympic win only half of their home matches and concede 1.5 goals on average at home. The combination suggests the odds underestimate the away team's chances.
Both teams to score 56.2%
Match result
Core markets
Under 2.5 goals @ 2.25 model 47.2% vs 44.4% implied +2.8%
Over 2.5 goals ripe for value
Our model flags a -9.34% value edge on Over 2.5 goals. Helsingborg’s matches go over 2.5 goals in 75% of home games and 80% overall, while United Nordic exceed 2.5 goals in only 29% of away fixtures but 47% overall. Both sides average close to two goals per game (Helsingborg 2.00 at home, United Nordic 1.14 away) and more than 70% of total goals come after the 70th minute (75% home, 71% away), reinforcing a high-scoring outlook.
AC Carina to win 76.6%
Match result
Core markets
AC Carina to win @ 1.36 model 76.6% vs 73.5% implied +3.1%
Value Bet: Univ. Queensland to Win
Our model shows a +7.58% edge for an away victory. Univ. Queensland have gone unbeaten in their last four matches and have already won two of the three recent head‑to‑head meetings (both away). Their season away win rate is 20%, but the unbeaten run and H2H success suggest they are in good form, supporting the value.
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Every probability on this page is produced by our AI model. It combines team form, expected goals (xG), goal-timing data, head-to-head records and live bookmaker odds to price every outcome of every covered match.
For every fixture we publish the model's strongest call, win/draw/away probabilities, BTTS and Over 2.5 probabilities, the most likely scorelines, and a Value Edge where the model disagrees with the bookmaker's pricing.
Predictions refresh multiple times per day — when fixtures are first published, when odds move materially, and again in the hours before kick-off. The Last Updated stamp above always reflects the most recent refresh.
Each prediction is generated by combining team form, expected goals (xG), historical scoring trends, head-to-head data and current bookmaker odds across the leagues we cover. The model is re-run every few hours, so the predictions on this page always reflect the latest market and team data.
BTTS (Both Teams To Score) probability is the model's estimated chance that both sides will score at least one goal. A BTTS probability above 60% is treated as a strong signal; below 45% is weak. You can compare BTTS trends across leagues on our BTTS statistics page.
Value Edge is the gap between our AI's probability for an outcome and the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds. A positive Value Edge means the bookmaker is pricing the outcome lower than our model expects, which is what we flag as a value bet.
Our model is back-tested on tens of thousands of historical football matches and is regularly recalibrated. Accuracy varies by market — main result markets sit around industry benchmarks, while BTTS and Over 2.5 markets tend to score higher. No prediction is guaranteed; we recommend pairing them with our value bets and dropping odds tools before staking.
Predictions refresh multiple times per day — when fixtures are first published, when bookmaker odds move materially, and again in the hours before kick-off. The Last Updated timestamp at the top of the page reflects the most recent refresh.
Yes. The top insight for every fixture is free to view. OddAlerts Pro members also get access to additional insights per match, custom filters, and the full AI match report.
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OddAlerts is a football analytics platform providing AI-powered predictions since 2020. Our prediction model is developed by sports data scientists and continuously refined using machine learning techniques. We analyze over 100,000 matches annually across 2,500+ leagues to provide the most accurate and valuable insights. Discover trends, explore custom filters, or join thousands using our alert system.
