Win, draw and away chances, both teams to score, goals and the likeliest score for every USL Championship match this week. Every prediction is checked against the final score, in public.
160 finished matches graded over the last 90 days. See the full record
Charleston Battery shade it at 50%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 62%, likeliest score 1-1.
Louisville City are clear favourites at 64%. Over 2.5 at 56%, likeliest score 1-0.
Hartford Athletic shade it at 59%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 62%, likeliest score 2-1.
Rhode Island are clear favourites at 61%. Over 2.5 at 44%, likeliest score 1-0.
Tampa Bay Rowdies shade it at 55%. Over 2.5 at 54%, likeliest score 1-1.
Tulsa Roughnecks shade it at 44%. Over 2.5 at 42%, likeliest score 1-1.
San Antonio shade it at 45%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 62%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: El Paso Locomotive 36%, Sacramento Republic 36%. Over 2.5 at 50%, likeliest score 1-1.
Colorado Springs shade it at 44%. Both teams to score at 58%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Orange County 36%, Phoenix Rising 37%. Over 2.5 at 49%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Las Vegas Lights 39%, Lexington 36%. Both teams to score at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
Birmingham Legion shade it at 50%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 63%, likeliest score 1-1.
Try another day or league, or clear the search.
160 matches graded · refreshed every few hours
Every home, draw and away probability, grouped and checked against what actually happened. The closer the dots sit to the line, the more honest the numbers.
| Model said | Happened | Outcomes |
|---|---|---|
| 16.6% | 13.5% | 52 |
| 25.3% | 25.9% | 216 |
| 34.1% | 29.6% | 71 |
| 44.8% | 43.5% | 62 |
| 54.7% | 60% | 50 |
Rhode Island
Loudoun United
Model pickRhode Island 58%
1-0
Correct
Hartford Athletic
Charleston Battery
Model pickCharleston Battery 45%
1-1
Missed
Sporting JAX
Birmingham Legion
Model pickBirmingham Legion 43%
0-1
Correct
The model blends USL Championship team form, expected goals (xG), goal timing and head-to-heads with live bookmaker odds to price every outcome of every match.
Each match is simulated 100,000 times for scorelines, goal lines and both teams to score. Open the match simulator to watch one play out.
Every finished match is scored against the result and fed into the record above, so you can judge the numbers before you use them.
AI USL Championship predictions are match forecasts made by a statistical model rather than a pundit. For every match ours gives the chance of a home win, draw and away win, both teams to score, over and under 2.5 goals and the likeliest exact scores, then compares those numbers with the bookmakers.
Over the last 90 days we graded 160 finished USL Championship matches against the final score. The model's pick for the match result was right 51.9% of the time (picking at random would be about 33%), and 73.1% of the time when it was at least 60% sure. Both teams to score calls were right 54.4% of the time and over/under 2.5 goals 58.8%.
Chatbots like ChatGPT can write a convincing preview, but they are language models: they have no live odds, no injury feed and no calibrated sense of probability, and they tend to back the favourite. Our numbers come from a statistical model built on form, expected goals (xG), goal timing, head-to-heads and live bookmaker prices. AI language models only write the match previews, from those numbers.
The one that publishes its record. Look for two things: every pick graded against the result, not a highlight reel, and probabilities that are calibrated, so a 70% call wins about seven times in ten. We show both on this page, updated every few hours.
Yes. Win, draw and away chances, both teams to score, over and under 2.5 goals, the likeliest score, a written verdict and a 100,000-run simulation are free for every match. Pro adds every goal line and team total, ranking by model edge, probability filters and the full AI match report.
The model combines USL Championship team form, expected goals (xG), goal-timing data, head-to-head records and live bookmaker odds to price every outcome. Each match is then simulated 100,000 times to produce scorelines and goal lines. It re-runs every few hours and again as kick-off approaches, so the numbers follow team news and price moves.
The gap between the model's probability and the bookmaker's. If the model gives a team a 55% chance and the odds imply 48%, that is a +7% edge: the bookmaker is pricing the outcome lower than the model expects. Positive edges are what value bettors look for.
Every USL Championship match with bookmaker odds in the next seven days, plus every other covered league on the all-leagues page.
Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Please gamble responsibly, 18+.
Louisville City
Indy Eleven
Miami FC II
Pittsburgh Riverhounds