Model probabilities for every upcoming MLS match — 1X2, BTTS, Over 2.5 & correct score — refreshed daily
Both teams to score 54.9%
Match result
Core markets
Under 2.5 goals @ 2.35 model 48.9% vs 42.6% implied +6.3%
Under 2.5 Goals – +6.8% Value Edge
Our model shows a +6.84% value edge for an Under 2.5‑goals result. Toronto’s matches go over 2.5 goals in only 67% of home games, while Chicago’s away games exceed 2.5 goals in 73% of outings – both below the market’s implied 64.5% probability. The combination of modest over‑2.5 frequencies and the model’s positive value suggests betting the game to stay under the line.
Cincinnati to win 56.5%
Match result
Core markets
Under 2.5 goals @ 3.00 model 45.9% vs 33.3% implied +12.6%
Low Over‑2.5 Trend Boosts Under 2.5 Bet
Our model shows a +12.57% value edge for an Under 2.5‑goal result. DC United have exceeded 2.5 goals in only 36% of their away games this season, meaning 64% of their away matches stay under the line. Combined with Cincinnati’s average of 2.23 goals per game and a home concession rate of 1.91, the scoring environment points toward a sub‑2.5 outcome.
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Every probability on this page is produced by our AI model. It combines MLS team form, expected goals (xG), goal-timing data, head-to-head records and live bookmaker odds to price every outcome of every covered match.
For every fixture we publish the model's strongest call, win/draw/away probabilities, BTTS and Over 2.5 probabilities, the most likely scorelines, and a Value Edge where the model disagrees with the bookmaker's pricing.
Predictions refresh multiple times per day — when fixtures are first published, when odds move materially, and again in the hours before kick-off. The Last Updated stamp above always reflects the most recent refresh.
Each prediction is generated by combining MLS team form, expected goals (xG), historical scoring trends, head-to-head data and current bookmaker odds. The model is re-run every few hours, so the MLS predictions on this page always reflect the latest market and team data.
BTTS (Both Teams To Score) probability is the model's estimated chance that both sides will score at least one goal in MLS. A BTTS probability above 60% is treated as a strong signal; below 45% is weak. You can compare BTTS trends across leagues on our BTTS statistics page.
Value Edge is the gap between our AI's probability for an outcome and the bookmaker's implied probability from the odds. A positive Value Edge means the bookmaker is pricing the outcome lower than our model expects, which is what we flag as a value bet in MLS.
Our model is back-tested on tens of thousands of historical MLS matches and is regularly recalibrated. Accuracy varies by market — main result markets sit around industry benchmarks, while BTTS and Over 2.5 markets tend to score higher. No prediction is guaranteed; we recommend pairing them with our value bets and dropping odds tools before staking.
Predictions refresh multiple times per day — when fixtures are first published, when bookmaker odds move materially, and again in the hours before kick-off. The Last Updated timestamp at the top of the page reflects the most recent refresh.
Yes. The top insight for every fixture is free to view. OddAlerts Pro members also get access to additional insights per match, custom filters, and the full AI match report.
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OddAlerts is a football analytics platform providing AI-powered predictions since 2020. Our prediction model is developed by sports data scientists and continuously refined using machine learning techniques. We analyze over 100,000 matches annually across 2,500+ leagues to provide the most accurate and valuable insights. Discover trends, explore custom filters, or join thousands using our alert system.
