Win, draw and away chances, both teams to score, goals and the likeliest score for every MLS match this week. Every prediction is checked against the final score, in public.
213 finished matches graded over the last 90 days. See the full record
Orlando City shade it at 54%. Over 2.5 at 54%, likeliest score 1-0.
New York RB shade it at 48%. Over 2.5 at 55%, likeliest score 1-1.
Inter Miami shade it at 47%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 61%, likeliest score 1-1.
Miami's edge on the road
Our model shows a -9.01% value edge for an Inter Miami win, meaning the odds (1.8) overprice the outcome. Miami have won 2 of their last 5 against Atlanta and are unbeaten in their last 3 league games, with 2 recent victories overall. Combine this with Atlanta’s single win in their last 5, indicating Miami’s form and head‑to‑head advantage support a value bet on an away win.
Too close to call: New York City 37%, Los Angeles FC 39%. Both teams to score at 59%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: New England 38%, Chicago Fire 38%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 63%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Sporting KC 40%, Real Salt Lake 35%. Over 2.5 at 52%, likeliest score 1-1.
Vancouver Whitecaps shade it at 45%. Over 2.5 at 50%, likeliest score 1-1.
Houston Dynamo shade it at 44%. Over 2.5 at 55%, likeliest score 1-1.
Portland Timbers shade it at 59%. Over 2.5 at 56%, likeliest score 1-0.
LA Galaxy shade it at 43%. Over 2.5 at 56%, likeliest score 1-1.
Seattle Sounders shade it at 58%. Over 2.5 at 60%, likeliest score 2-1.
Too close to call: SJ Earthquakes 35%, Nashville SC 39%. Both teams to score at 60%, likeliest score 1-1.
Cincinnati shade it at 47%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 66%, likeliest score 1-1.
Try another day or league, or clear the search.
213 matches graded · refreshed every few hours
Every home, draw and away probability, grouped and checked against what actually happened. The closer the dots sit to the line, the more honest the numbers.
| Model said | Happened | Outcomes |
|---|---|---|
| 17.2% | 16.7% | 42 |
| 24.3% | 30.8% | 292 |
| 34.7% | 26.7% | 116 |
| 44.2% | 36.6% | 101 |
| 54.2% | 50% | 60 |
Philadelphia Union
Charlotte
Model pickPhiladelphia Union 61%
2-2
Missed
Los Angeles FC
Austin
Model pickLos Angeles FC 63%
3-1
Correct
LA Galaxy
Portland Timbers
Model pickLA Galaxy 53%
2-0
Correct
San Diego
Houston Dynamo
Model pickSan Diego 46%
3-3
Missed
Colorado Rapids
Minnesota United
Model pickColorado Rapids 50%
2-2
Missed
Real Salt Lake
SJ Earthquakes
Model pickReal Salt Lake 44%
1-1
Missed
Chicago Fire
Philadelphia Union
Model pickChicago Fire 42%
1-3
Missed
Nashville SC
Sporting KC
Model pickNashville SC 74%
4-0
Correct
The model blends MLS team form, expected goals (xG), goal timing and head-to-heads with live bookmaker odds to price every outcome of every match.
Each match is simulated 100,000 times for scorelines, goal lines and both teams to score. Open the match simulator to watch one play out.
Every finished match is scored against the result and fed into the record above, so you can judge the numbers before you use them.
AI MLS predictions are match forecasts made by a statistical model rather than a pundit. For every match ours gives the chance of a home win, draw and away win, both teams to score, over and under 2.5 goals and the likeliest exact scores, then compares those numbers with the bookmakers.
Over the last 90 days we graded 213 finished MLS matches against the final score. The model's pick for the match result was right 42.7% of the time (picking at random would be about 33%), and 66.7% of the time when it was at least 60% sure. Both teams to score calls were right 65.7% of the time and over/under 2.5 goals 64.3%.
Chatbots like ChatGPT can write a convincing preview, but they are language models: they have no live odds, no injury feed and no calibrated sense of probability, and they tend to back the favourite. Our numbers come from a statistical model built on form, expected goals (xG), goal timing, head-to-heads and live bookmaker prices. AI language models only write the match previews, from those numbers.
The one that publishes its record. Look for two things: every pick graded against the result, not a highlight reel, and probabilities that are calibrated, so a 70% call wins about seven times in ten. We show both on this page, updated every few hours.
Yes. Win, draw and away chances, both teams to score, over and under 2.5 goals, the likeliest score, a written verdict and a 100,000-run simulation are free for every match. Pro adds every goal line and team total, ranking by model edge, probability filters and the full AI match report.
The model combines MLS team form, expected goals (xG), goal-timing data, head-to-head records and live bookmaker odds to price every outcome. Each match is then simulated 100,000 times to produce scorelines and goal lines. It re-runs every few hours and again as kick-off approaches, so the numbers follow team news and price moves.
The gap between the model's probability and the bookmaker's. If the model gives a team a 55% chance and the odds imply 48%, that is a +7% edge: the bookmaker is pricing the outcome lower than the model expects. Positive edges are what value bettors look for.
Every MLS match with bookmaker odds in the next seven days, plus every other covered league on the all-leagues page.
Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Please gamble responsibly, 18+.
Cincinnati
Columbus Crew
New England
Orlando City
DC United