A team can be winning and still lose you money. If everyone knows they are good, the price is short, and a couple of draws wipe out a month of wins. Team Profit answers the question the league table does not: what would backing this team have actually paid?
It takes every team with a match coming up and replays their recent games as bets. Each bet is £10 at bet365's price, so the profit column is in pounds and every team is on the same footing.
The settings
- Window — Teams playing in the next 24 hours, 48 hours or 7 days. A team that plays twice in the window is listed against its first game.
- Market — Team to win, double chance, leading at half-time, over 2.5 goals, under 2.5 goals or both teams to score.
- Sample — The team's last 5, 10, 20 or 50 finished matches, in any competition. Games that went to extra time are left out.
- Price — Closing odds by default, or opening odds. Closing is what the market settled on just before kick-off. Opening is what you could have had if you bet early.
Team to win and double chance use the team's own side, home or away, for each game. The goals and both-teams-to-score markets are priced on the whole match, so both teams in a game carry the same result.
Reading the table
Each row has the team, their next game (marked home or away), the price for that game, and then the record: graded games, win rate, profit and ROI.
Graded is the column I check first. It shows how many of the sample games had a price to bet at. Eight out of ten is a smaller sample than it looks in the profit column.
ROI is profit divided by the total staked. Ten bets at £10 is £100 staked, so £25 profit is a 25% ROI. Sort by it when you want the strongest return rather than the biggest pile.
Click a team to see every game behind the number: opponent, score, the price, and what each bet made or lost. A game without a price is marked N/P and is not counted.
Search for a team or a league to see only them. Searching a league looks further ahead than the window, so you see everyone in that competition with a fixture coming up.
Why past profit is not a tip
A team that has made money over ten games has beaten the market over ten games. Some of that is the market being slow to catch up. Most of it, over ten games, is variance. The longer the sample, the more the number means, and the more likely the price has already moved.
I use it as a starting point. A side that has been profitable over 20 games at closing prices, with nearly every game graded, is worth a look in the form guide. Then I check whether the next price still has room in it, using value bets or match simulations.
Free and Pro
The free preview shows the top three teams for the next 24 hours, last 10 games and closing team-to-win odds. Pro opens every setting, every team, search and the match-by-match detail.
There is also a daily alert, in beta for Season Ticket and Advanced members. It sends the top teams for up to three markets at the time you choose, filtered by odds and ROI.
How to use it
- Pick a window and market — Open Team Profit and choose when and what.
- Set a longer sample — 20 games is more honest than 5.
- Check graded games — Make sure the profit comes from enough bets.
- Open the team — See where the money came from, then look at the next price.
FAQ
Why £10 stakes rather than units?
So the profit column means something at a glance. Divide by ten for units.
Why are some teams missing?
A team only appears if bet365 has a price for the chosen market on their next game.
Does it include cup games?
Yes. The sample is the team's last finished matches in any competition we cover.