Match simulations plays each upcoming game 100,000 times and counts the outcomes. If the home side wins 47,000 of them, that is a 47% chance. Every other number on the page comes from the same count: the goal lines, the likeliest scores, the half-time markets and the corners.
The engine starts from what a sharp market thinks of the game, then models how goals arrive from there. That matters. A simulation built only on last season's stats ignores team news the market already knows. Anchoring to sharp prices keeps the starting point honest, and the simulation fills in the markets those prices do not cover directly.
What is covered
The hub lists matches for the next seven days across the leagues we simulate: the top five European leagues, the EFL, the Champions League and Europa League, the Eredivisie, the Nordic leagues, MLS, Brazil, Argentina, Japan, Korea, Saudi Arabia and a few more. Open a league for just its games, or a fixture for the full breakdown.
Simulations refresh every 20 minutes in the last six hours before kick-off, every 45 minutes the day before, and every few hours further out. A match without prices yet shows Awaiting odds until the engine has something to start from.
Reading a fixture
The header has the headline numbers: the home, draw and away split, expected goals for each side, the likeliest score, both teams to score and over 2.5. The tabs underneath go deeper.
- Overview — A replay of one simulated match, the main probabilities, and a short list of why the numbers look the way they do: the market's view, form, big price moves, the referee, rest days.
- Goals — How many goals each team scores across the runs, every line from over 0.5 to over 5.5, team goal lines, double chance, draw no bet, win to nil, and the half-by-half split.
- Scores — A grid from 0-0 to 5-5 and the ten likeliest results. The likeliest score is still unlikely. Even the top one usually lands well under one game in five.
- Corners & cards — Simulated totals and lines for both.
- Value — The simulated chance next to the best available price, the fair odds, the edge and a suggested stake. This is where the simulation meets the market.
- Model — The inputs behind the run: where the expected goals came from, team ratings and the engine's settings.
Run it yourself replays the match in your browser. It uses the same expected goals with a lighter engine, so small differences from the main numbers are normal.
Fair odds and value
Fair odds are one divided by the simulated chance. A 40% chance is fair at 2.50. If the best price is 2.80, the price is longer than the simulation, which is a value bet on these numbers. If it is 2.20, you are being asked to take less than the simulation thinks it is worth.
Implied probability is the same idea from the other side. I use the Value tab as a shortlist, then check the team news. The simulation knows what the market knew when it last ran. It does not know about the late fitness test.
What each plan shows
Without an account you see the result, goals, both teams to score, the result markets and the six likeliest scores. A free account adds every scoreline, the half-time markets and half-time/full-time.
Pro adds corners, cards, goal timing, Asian handicap, result and both-teams-to-score combinations, the market comparison and the value bets. The Model tab is part of the Advanced plan.
At the bottom of the hub, How the simulations did shows recent finished games next to what was simulated, so you can see the misses as well as the hits.
How to use it
- Pick the game — Open match simulations, then a league or a fixture.
- Read the header — Result split, expected goals and the likeliest score.
- Open the market you bet — Goals, scores, or corners and cards.
- Compare with the price — On the Value tab, or by working out fair odds yourself.
FAQ
Why 100,000 simulations?
Enough runs that the percentages stop moving. With a few hundred, a 3-1 could swing a percent either way between runs. At 100,000 the count settles, and differences between two scorelines mean something.
Is the likeliest score a prediction?
It is the single most common result across the runs. Most games do not finish on it, because the chance is spread across many scorelines. The full grid is more useful than the top line.
How is this different from AI predictions?
AI football predictions gives you our model's chances and a written preview. Simulations play the match out, so you get every market from one consistent set of runs, including corners, cards and half-time.