A value bet is a price that pays more than your estimate of the chance is worth. If you think an outcome happens 50% of the time, the fair decimal odds are 2.00, because 1 divided by 0.50 is 2.00. Anything longer than 2.00 is value on that estimate. Anything shorter is a bad price, even if you think the selection is likely to win.
How a Value Bet Works
Decimal odds convert to an implied probability by dividing 1 by the odds. Odds of 3.00 imply about 33%. Odds of 1.50 imply about 67%. The bookmaker's margin means the implied probabilities of every outcome in a market add up to more than 100%, so the posted price is usually a little shorter than the bookmaker's own fair price.
Value is not "a team that should win". A strong favourite at 1.20 is a poor bet if you think the fair price is 1.40. An outsider at 6.00 is a value bet if you think the fair price is 4.50. You only find out whether the estimate was any good over a lot of bets, not from the next match.
Why a Value Bet Matters for Betting
Backing short prices because a team is "in form" can be a losing habit when the price already assumes that form. The comparison that matters is your probability against the offered odds. Positive expected value means the price is in your favour if the probability is right. It does not mean the bet wins today.
How OddAlerts Uses Value Bets
The value bets page lists football prices that are longer than the OddAlerts probability. How to read that screen is covered in the value bets tool guide.
FAQ
Is every favourite a value bet?
No. A favourite is the outcome with the shortest price. A value bet is a price that is longer than your fair odds, which can be a favourite or an outsider.
Does a value bet always win?
No. A 60% chance still loses 40% of the time. Value describes the price, not the next result.
Related Terms
The closest check on whether your prices were any good is closing line value. A price that shortens after you take it is also what people mean by dropping odds, which is a description of the move, not proof of value.