Most fixture tickers colour the grid with FPL's difficulty rating. It is a whole number from one to five, set before the season, and it barely moves. It does not know a club sold its striker or that a keeper is out for two months.
The FPL fixture ticker uses the betting market instead. For each priced fixture we take the match odds and the over/under 2.5 line, remove the bookmaker's margin, and work out the expected goals for both sides that fit those prices. When the market moves, the ticker moves.
The columns
Expected goals for (xGF) is how many a club should score in that game. Sort on it when you are choosing which club to take an attacker from.
Expected goals against (xGA) is how many they should concede, and clean sheet turns that into a percentage. Those two drive every defender and goalkeeper decision.
Win chance is the sanity check on how one-sided a game is. FPL's own difficulty is shown alongside, so you can see where it disagrees with the odds. The disagreements are where other managers are reading the wrong number.
Those are free. Pro colours the grid by each club's best projected players, so you see the attack, the defence and the goal threat in one look.
The window
It opens on the next six gameweeks. You can change the starting gameweek and stretch the window to twelve. Six is about right for an ordinary transfer. Look longer before a move you cannot easily reverse, like a premium or a wildcard.
Sort by best run, best total, most fixtures or club name. Filter to home or away games only when venue matters. Some defences are a different team on the road.
Doubles and blanks
Clubs with a double gameweek in the window are tagged DGW. Clubs with a blank are tagged BGW. Averages are worked out per fixture, not per gameweek, so a double against two strong sides does not pass as an easy week. The total still counts both games, which is why "best total" and "best run" can put different clubs on top.
When a fixture has not been priced yet, difficulty falls back to our attack and defence ratings for the two clubs, built on expected goals rather than results.
How to use it
- Open the ticker — Fixture ticker starts on the next six gameweeks.
- Pick the column for the slot — xGF for attackers, xGA and clean sheet for defenders and keepers.
- Sort by best run — Then switch to best total if doubles are coming.
- Check the tags — A blank in week three can undo a kind-looking run.
- Take the clubs to the players — Open FPL predicted points or the team builder and find the best-priced player from the clubs you liked.
FAQ
What does FDR mean in FPL?
Fixture Difficulty Rating. FPL scores every fixture from one (easiest) to five (hardest) from the playing club's side. It is set early and rarely changes.
Why doesn't the ticker match FPL's difficulty?
It is built from the betting odds for each game. Those are re-priced on team news and form. The official number mostly is not.
How many gameweeks should I look ahead?
Six for most transfers. Up to twelve before a wildcard or a premium move.