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Most longshots are priced long for a reason. This list looks for the ones that are priced too long — away wins at 4.00 or bigger in the next 24 hours where our model's fair price is shorter than the bookmaker's.

Expect a lot of losers and a few big winners; the point is that the price justifies the risk. Every match shows both prices. Add a recent away form rule to weed out teams who never win on the road, whatever the price says.

What the Longshot Value filter checks

  • Away Win 4–15

Every fixture kicking off in the next 24 hours is tested against each rule; only the matches that pass all of them are listed above, with the actual figure behind every rule shown on the card. The list is rebuilt through the day as odds and form update.

Frequently asked questions

Can a 6.00 shot really be a value bet?
Yes. 6.00 implies a 16.7% chance. If the model makes the same outcome 22% — a fair price of 4.55 — then 6.00 is a value bet even though it will lose more often than it wins.
How should longshot value bets be staked?
Smaller than shorter-priced bets. Long prices mean long losing runs are normal, so most people stake a fixed small fraction of their bank and judge results over hundreds of bets rather than a weekend.
Is the Longshot Value Bets list free?
Yes. Anyone can see the first few matches and add rules of their own; a free OddAlerts account unlocks the full list and runs the free preset on the live match feed. Pro runs every preset live with alerts, sorting and 30-day backtests.

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