Data-Driven Match Insights & Betting Value Analysis
Al Fateh and Al Khaleej have shipped a combined 36 goals across their last 20 games, with BTTS landing in 7 of Fateh’s last 10 at home and 9 of Khaleej’s last 10 away. The model gives BTTS a strong 64.1% chance, fitting the mutual defensive frailty.
Home Win: 32.8%Newport games average 11.4 corners with over 9.5 landing in 9 of their last 10; they win 6.2 corners themselves and 6.7 per match come after HT. Oldham matches also tilt to 2H (5.9 corners vs 3.6 in 1H). The model has over 9 corners at 51.18% and over 10 at 39.68%, consistent with a high-corner profile.
Chesterfield are 6W-1D-3L in their last 10 and have won by exactly 1 goal in 5 of those, with 4 wins to nil, suggesting they often just do enough. Our model makes the home win 48.1%, a fair but not runaway favourite angle against a similarly in-form Crewe (5W-1D-4L).
Barnet are 6W-2D-2L with 18 goals in their last 10, including 10 in the last 3 and scoring in 7 straight. Gillingham have just 8 goals in 10, ship 2.1 per game and are -13 GD. The model makes Barnet home win a 55.8% chance, underlining a clear attacking edge.
Tottenham are 1W-1D-8L in their last 10, with a -15 goal difference and five defeats by 2+ goals, while Wolves are more stable at 3W-3D-4L despite a poor recent run. The model gives Wolves a 32.7% win chance vs odds 3.75 (26.7% implied), making Home Win a +22.5% value play.
Cambridge have shipped just 5 goals in 10 games with 5 clean sheets and only 0.76 xGA per match, while Barrow have conceded 20 in the same span and 2.6 per game in their last 10 away. This defensive mismatch underpins Cambridge at 1.36 (implied 73.5%) versus a model home-win chance of 66.2%, suggesting the 1x2 home price is slightly short.
Wigan have 6 clean sheets in their last 10 home games and only 10 conceded in their last 10 overall, while AFC Wimbledon have failed to score in 6 of their last 10 and lost to nil in 6 of those. With model BTTS No at 54.1%, Wigan’s defensive edge is clear.
Six of West Ham’s last 10 matches and seven of Everton’s last 10 have seen most goals after the break, with games averaging 1.8–2.0 goals in 2H and 36–40% of goals after 70’. The market leans that way too: 2nd Half as Highest Scoring Half is just 2.01.
Palace have conceded just 7 goals and kept 5 clean sheets in their last 10, while Liverpool have failed to score in 4 of 10 and lost to nil in all 4 of their recent defeats. With Palace’s structure tested at Anfield, Under 2.5 Goals at 2.53 (model 40.2%, implied 39.5%) offers a marginal value angle in what could be tighter than the market expects.
Norwich are 7W-1D-2L in their last 10 at Carrow Road and have conceded just 11 in their last 10 overall, while Swansea have shipped 17 in their last 10 and been outshot in 9 of those. Despite this edge, the model sees some risk in the 1.81 home price (48.8% vs 55.2% implied), hinting value lies away from the straight home win.
QPR have shipped 18 goals in their last 10 and lost by 2+ in 4 of them, while Derby have scored in 9/10 and in the 1st half in 7/10. Derby’s early pressure fits the model’s 39.5% away‑first‑goal edge; Away to score 1+ is 1.28 (implied 78% vs model 64%) so fairly priced, not huge value.
Stoke are 3W-2D-5L in their last 10 and winless in 3, yet the model still makes them 43.9% to win vs Portsmouth (3W-3D-4L last 10). With Stoke conceding 17 in 10 but rated slightly stronger at home, Home Win at 2.7 carries +18.5% value (model 43.9% vs implied 37%).
BTTS (Both Teams To Score) probability indicates the likelihood that both teams will score at least one goal during the match, based on offensive and defensive statistics. Explore more BTTS statistics and trends across different leagues.
Value edge represents the percentage difference between our AI's calculated probability and the bookmaker's implied odds. A positive value suggests the bet may offer value. Find more opportunities on our value bets page.
Our AI model has been tested on thousands of historical football matches and achieves accuracy rates above industry standards. You can track our performance with our bet tracking tool. However, football is inherently unpredictable and no prediction is guaranteed.
We provide AI predictions for major European leagues including the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga, Ligue 1, and Championship. View all leagues on our fixtures page.
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OddAlerts is a football analytics platform providing AI-powered predictions since 2020. Our prediction model is developed by sports data scientists and continuously refined using machine learning techniques. We analyze over 100,000 matches annually across 2,500+ leagues to provide the most accurate and valuable insights. Discover trends, explore custom filters, or join thousands using our alert system.
