Win, draw and away chances, both teams to score, goals and the likeliest score for every EFL League One match this week. Every prediction is checked against the final score, in public.
114 finished matches graded over the last 90 days. See the full record
Stockport County shade it at 45%. Over 2.5 at 47%, likeliest score 1-1.
Bradford City shade it at 43%. Over 2.5 at 53%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: AFC Wimbledon 37%, Mansfield Town 34%. Over 2.5 at 42%, likeliest score 1-1.
Cambridge United shade it at 48%. Over 2.5 at 48%, likeliest score 1-1.
Leicester City shade it at 44%. Over 2.5 at 49%, likeliest score 1-1.
Huddersfield Town shade it at 59%. Over 2.5 at 52%, likeliest score 1-0.
Plymouth Argyle shade it at 42%. Both teams to score at 58%, likeliest score 1-1.
Oxford United shade it at 48%. Over 2.5 at 44%, likeliest score 1-0.
Luton Town shade it at 57%. Over 2.5 at 56%, likeliest score 1-0.
Notts County shade it at 44%. Both teams to score at 59%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Blackpool 36%, Milton Keynes Dons 37%. Over 2.5 at 49%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Reading 39%, Leyton Orient 36%. Over 2.5 at 51%, likeliest score 1-1.
Luton Town shade it at 48%. Over 2.5 at 52%, likeliest score 1-1.
Huddersfield Town shade it at 55%. Over 2.5 at 46%, likeliest score 1-0.
Try another day or league, or clear the search.
114 matches graded · refreshed every few hours
Plymouth Argyle
Huddersfield Town
Model pickHuddersfield Town 38%
0-2
Correct
Wycombe Wanderers
Notts County
Model pickWycombe Wanderers 52%
2-0
Correct
Stockport County
Bromley
Model pickStockport County 65%
1-0
Correct
Leicester City
Doncaster Rovers
Model pickLeicester City 44%
2-1
Correct
Bradford City
Stevenage
Model pickBradford City 47%
2-0
Correct
Sheffield Wednesday
AFC Wimbledon
Model pickSheffield Wednesday 45%
5-0
Correct
Barnsley
Cambridge United
Model pickCambridge United 43%
1-2
Correct
Leyton Orient
Blackpool
Model pickLeyton Orient 45%
2-0
Correct
The model blends EFL League One team form, expected goals (xG), goal timing and head-to-heads with live bookmaker odds to price every outcome of every match.
Each match is simulated 100,000 times for scorelines, goal lines and both teams to score. Open the match simulator to watch one play out.
Every finished match is scored against the result and fed into the record above, so you can judge the numbers before you use them.
EFL League One predictions live or die on form, fitness and squad depth. The third tier of English football sees more midweek games, more squad rotation and far less media-priced odds movement than the leagues above it — which is precisely where AI models tend to find value. Our League One model emphasises recent results over season-long stats, home/away form splits, and BTTS/Over 2.5 edges driven by weak defensive xG, especially in fixtures with promotion or relegation pressure.
AI EFL League One predictions are match forecasts made by a statistical model rather than a pundit. For every match ours gives the chance of a home win, draw and away win, both teams to score, over and under 2.5 goals and the likeliest exact scores, then compares those numbers with the bookmakers.
Over the last 90 days we graded 114 finished EFL League One matches against the final score. The model's pick for the match result was right 38.6% of the time (picking at random would be about 33%), and 100% of the time when it was at least 60% sure. Both teams to score calls were right 48.2% of the time and over/under 2.5 goals 52.6%.
Chatbots like ChatGPT can write a convincing preview, but they are language models: they have no live odds, no injury feed and no calibrated sense of probability, and they tend to back the favourite. Our numbers come from a statistical model built on form, expected goals (xG), goal timing, head-to-heads and live bookmaker prices. AI language models only write the match previews, from those numbers.
The one that publishes its record. Look for two things: every pick graded against the result, not a highlight reel, and probabilities that are calibrated, so a 70% call wins about seven times in ten. We show both on this page, updated every few hours.
Yes. Win, draw and away chances, both teams to score, over and under 2.5 goals, the likeliest score, a written verdict and a 100,000-run simulation are free for every match. Pro adds every goal line and team total, ranking by model edge, probability filters and the full AI match report.
The model combines EFL League One team form, expected goals (xG), goal-timing data, head-to-head records and live bookmaker odds to price every outcome. Each match is then simulated 100,000 times to produce scorelines and goal lines. It re-runs every few hours and again as kick-off approaches, so the numbers follow team news and price moves.
The gap between the model's probability and the bookmaker's. If the model gives a team a 55% chance and the odds imply 48%, that is a +7% edge: the bookmaker is pricing the outcome lower than the model expects. Positive edges are what value bettors look for.
Every EFL League One match with bookmaker odds in the next seven days, plus every other covered league on the all-leagues page.
Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Please gamble responsibly, 18+.
