Win, draw and away chances, both teams to score, goals and the likeliest score for every Ligue 1 match this week. Every prediction is checked against the final score, in public.
58 finished matches graded over the last 90 days. See the full record
Olympique Marseille shade it at 49%. Goals expected, Over 2.5 at 62%, likeliest score 1-1.
Le Havre shade it at 49%. Over 2.5 at 48%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Paris 39%, Rennes 37%. Over 2.5 at 57%, likeliest score 1-1.
Monaco shade it at 41%. Both teams to score at 58%, likeliest score 1-1.
Olympique Lyonnais shade it at 57%. Over 2.5 at 58%, likeliest score 1-1.
Brest shade it at 46%. Over 2.5 at 49%, likeliest score 1-1.
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58 matches graded · refreshed every few hours
Troyes
Lens
Model pickLens 43%
1-3
Correct
LOSC Lille
Brest
Model pickLOSC Lille 54%
1-1
Missed
Strasbourg
Paris Saint Germain
Model pickParis Saint Germain 62%
1-3
Correct
Le Mans
Toulouse
Model pickLe Mans 38%
0-3
Missed
The model blends Ligue 1 team form, expected goals (xG), goal timing and head-to-heads with live bookmaker odds to price every outcome of every match.
Each match is simulated 100,000 times for scorelines, goal lines and both teams to score. Open the match simulator to watch one play out.
Every finished match is scored against the result and fed into the record above, so you can judge the numbers before you use them.
Ligue 1 predictions need to account for one of the most polarised tables in European football. PSG and the Champions League contenders distort the table averages, so our Ligue 1 model splits its priors: matches involving the top three are modelled separately from mid-table and bottom-half clashes. The clearest betting edges in Ligue 1 are usually on Asian handicaps for the dominant sides and BTTS in the mid-table fixtures where defensive depth is shallow.
AI Ligue 1 predictions are match forecasts made by a statistical model rather than a pundit. For every match ours gives the chance of a home win, draw and away win, both teams to score, over and under 2.5 goals and the likeliest exact scores, then compares those numbers with the bookmakers.
Over the last 90 days we graded 58 finished Ligue 1 matches against the final score. The model's pick for the match result was right 53.4% of the time (picking at random would be about 33%), and 60% of the time when it was at least 60% sure. Both teams to score calls were right 55.2% of the time and over/under 2.5 goals 50%.
Chatbots like ChatGPT can write a convincing preview, but they are language models: they have no live odds, no injury feed and no calibrated sense of probability, and they tend to back the favourite. Our numbers come from a statistical model built on form, expected goals (xG), goal timing, head-to-heads and live bookmaker prices. AI language models only write the match previews, from those numbers.
The one that publishes its record. Look for two things: every pick graded against the result, not a highlight reel, and probabilities that are calibrated, so a 70% call wins about seven times in ten. We show both on this page, updated every few hours.
Yes. Win, draw and away chances, both teams to score, over and under 2.5 goals, the likeliest score, a written verdict and a 100,000-run simulation are free for every match. Pro adds every goal line and team total, ranking by model edge, probability filters and the full AI match report.
The model combines Ligue 1 team form, expected goals (xG), goal-timing data, head-to-head records and live bookmaker odds to price every outcome. Each match is then simulated 100,000 times to produce scorelines and goal lines. It re-runs every few hours and again as kick-off approaches, so the numbers follow team news and price moves.
The gap between the model's probability and the bookmaker's. If the model gives a team a 55% chance and the odds imply 48%, that is a +7% edge: the bookmaker is pricing the outcome lower than the model expects. Positive edges are what value bettors look for.
Every Ligue 1 match with bookmaker odds in the next seven days, plus every other covered league on the all-leagues page.
Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Please gamble responsibly, 18+.
Olympique Lyonnais
Nice
Angers SCO
Olympique Marseille
Lorient
Monaco
Le Havre
Auxerre