Win, draw and away chances, both teams to score, goals and the likeliest score for every Serie A match this week. Every prediction is checked against the final score, in public.
64 finished matches graded over the last 90 days. See the full record
Udinese shade it at 44%. Over 2.5 at 51%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Fiorentina 38%, Como 36%. Over 2.5 at 51%, likeliest score 1-1.
AC Milan shade it at 45%. Both teams to score at 58%, likeliest score 1-1.
Juventus shade it at 54%. Over 2.5 at 48%, likeliest score 1-0.
Monza shade it at 43%. Over 2.5 at 52%, likeliest score 1-1.
Too close to call: Parma 35%, Torino 34%. A tight one, Under 2.5 at 62%, likeliest score 1-1.
Torino shade it at 42%. Over 2.5 at 54%, likeliest score 1-1.
Try another day or league, or clear the search.
64 matches graded · refreshed every few hours
Roma
Genoa
Model pickRoma 65%
2-0
Correct
Bologna
Inter
Model pickInter 46%
1-3
Correct
Venezia
Napoli
Model pickNapoli 38%
1-0
Missed
Frosinone
Sassuolo
Model pickFrosinone 52%
4-2
Correct
The model blends Serie A team form, expected goals (xG), goal timing and head-to-heads with live bookmaker odds to price every outcome of every match.
Each match is simulated 100,000 times for scorelines, goal lines and both teams to score. Open the match simulator to watch one play out.
Every finished match is scored against the result and fed into the record above, so you can judge the numbers before you use them.
Serie A predictions reflect the tactical reality of Italian football: low-block defences, strong xG-vs-goals conversion gaps, and big handicap value when a top-four side meets the relegation zone. Our Serie A model weights defensive xG and clean-sheet streaks more heavily than the Premier League equivalent, and is calibrated specifically for the spike in 1-0 / 2-1 outcomes that drag the league average below the European norm. Expect to see more Under 2.5 and correct score recommendations on this league than any other.
AI Serie A predictions are match forecasts made by a statistical model rather than a pundit. For every match ours gives the chance of a home win, draw and away win, both teams to score, over and under 2.5 goals and the likeliest exact scores, then compares those numbers with the bookmakers.
Over the last 90 days we graded 64 finished Serie A matches against the final score. The model's pick for the match result was right 56.3% of the time (picking at random would be about 33%), and 85.7% of the time when it was at least 60% sure. Both teams to score calls were right 56.3% of the time and over/under 2.5 goals 53.1%.
Chatbots like ChatGPT can write a convincing preview, but they are language models: they have no live odds, no injury feed and no calibrated sense of probability, and they tend to back the favourite. Our numbers come from a statistical model built on form, expected goals (xG), goal timing, head-to-heads and live bookmaker prices. AI language models only write the match previews, from those numbers.
The one that publishes its record. Look for two things: every pick graded against the result, not a highlight reel, and probabilities that are calibrated, so a 70% call wins about seven times in ten. We show both on this page, updated every few hours.
Yes. Win, draw and away chances, both teams to score, over and under 2.5 goals, the likeliest score, a written verdict and a 100,000-run simulation are free for every match. Pro adds every goal line and team total, ranking by model edge, probability filters and the full AI match report.
The model combines Serie A team form, expected goals (xG), goal-timing data, head-to-head records and live bookmaker odds to price every outcome. Each match is then simulated 100,000 times to produce scorelines and goal lines. It re-runs every few hours and again as kick-off approaches, so the numbers follow team news and price moves.
The gap between the model's probability and the bookmaker's. If the model gives a team a 55% chance and the odds imply 48%, that is a +7% edge: the bookmaker is pricing the outcome lower than the model expects. Positive edges are what value bettors look for.
Every Serie A match with bookmaker odds in the next seven days, plus every other covered league on the all-leagues page.
Predictions are probabilities, not certainties. Please gamble responsibly, 18+.
Juventus
Lazio
AC Milan
Atalanta
Udinese
Lecce
Fiorentina
Como