Data-Driven Match Insights & Betting Value Analysis
Al Najma have shipped 30 goals in 10 games (3.0 per match) and lost by 2+ in 7 of those, while Al Taawoun have scored in 9 straight and in 9 of their last 10. The model makes Taawoun favourites at 47.45% away win and 71.95% on X2 double chance.
Home Win: 28.8%Walsall’s last 10 have been open (14 conceded, 7/10 over 2.5), yet the model leans narrowly to under 2.5 at 52.48% vs 47.52% for over. In a game featuring a blunt Walsall home attack and an inconsistent Harrogate front line, the data supports a marginal preference for goals-based unders despite recent over trends.
Shrewsbury are 6W-1D-3L in their last 10 at home with 5 clean sheets, while Fleetwood have seen Under 1.5 goals in 5 of their last 10 and only 1.9 goals projected overall. The model slightly leans Under 2.5 (51.39%), fitting a tight, cagey profile.
Accrington (0.8 home goals per game) and Crawley (0.4 away) have both failed to score in 4–5 of their last 10, and the projected total is just 1.6 goals. Yet the model still makes Over 2.5 slightly more likely than Under (51.8% vs 48.2%), suggesting the expected goal line is set very low by recent form.
Cambridge have shipped just 5 goals in 10 games with 5 clean sheets and only 0.76 xGA per match, while Barrow have conceded 20 in the same span and 2.6 per game in their last 10 away. This defensive mismatch underpins Cambridge at 1.36 (implied 73.5%) versus a model home-win chance of 66.2%, suggesting the 1x2 home price is slightly short.
Newport see 1.6 goals in 2H vs 0.8 in 1H and 36% of their goals come after 70’, while Oldham’s games average 1.7 goals in 2H vs 1.0 in 1H with 39% of their goals after 70’. Model leans to a quiet start (0.5 1H goals at 76.36%), then a livelier second half.
Bristol Rovers are 8W-0D-2L in their last 10 at home with 5 clean sheets, conceding just 0.7 goals vs 1.37 xGA. Cheltenham have scored in 9 of 10 and overperform xG (1.7 vs 1.03). BTTS Yes at 1.83 has slight value (+0.9%).
Chesterfield are 6W-1D-3L in their last 10 and have won by exactly 1 goal in 5 of those, with 4 wins to nil, suggesting they often just do enough. Our model makes the home win 48.1%, a fair but not runaway favourite angle against a similarly in-form Crewe (5W-1D-4L).
Barnet are 6W-2D-2L with 18 goals in their last 10, including 10 in the last 3 and scoring in 7 straight. Gillingham have just 8 goals in 10, ship 2.1 per game and are -13 GD. The model makes Barnet home win a 55.8% chance, underlining a clear attacking edge.
Our model flags a -7.11% edge on the Over 2.5‑goals market. Getafe’s matches exceed 2.5 goals at home only 20% of the time, while Barcelona’s away games do so 73% of the time, giving a modest combined expectation. The last five head‑to‑head meetings averaged just 2.0 goals and only two of those five games went over 2.5, indicating the market is priced too high.
Feyenoord average 2.5 goals scored in their last 10 home games, with Over 2.5 landing in 7/10 and BTTS in 8/10, while Groningen have scored in 8/10 overall. The model gives Over 2.5 goals a 68.2% chance vs 63.7% implied at 1.57, a solid +7% value edge.
Bologna have out-shot opponents in 8 of their last 10 and kept 3 home clean sheets in that span, while Roma have shipped 18 goals in 10 and are conceding 1.8 vs 1.26 xGA. The model makes Bologna 39.7% for the win (true odds 2.52) vs market 2.8 (35.7%), giving Home Win +11.1% value.
BTTS (Both Teams To Score) probability indicates the likelihood that both teams will score at least one goal during the match, based on offensive and defensive statistics. Explore more BTTS statistics and trends across different leagues.
Value edge represents the percentage difference between our AI's calculated probability and the bookmaker's implied odds. A positive value suggests the bet may offer value. Find more opportunities on our value bets page.
Our AI model has been tested on thousands of historical football matches and achieves accuracy rates above industry standards. You can track our performance with our bet tracking tool. However, football is inherently unpredictable and no prediction is guaranteed.
We provide AI predictions for major European leagues including the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga, Ligue 1, and Championship. View all leagues on our fixtures page.
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OddAlerts is a football analytics platform providing AI-powered predictions since 2020. Our prediction model is developed by sports data scientists and continuously refined using machine learning techniques. We analyze over 100,000 matches annually across 2,500+ leagues to provide the most accurate and valuable insights. Discover trends, explore custom filters, or join thousands using our alert system.
