Data-Driven Match Insights & Betting Value Analysis
Lazio are winless in 3 and haven’t scored in any of those, failing to net in 5 of their last 10, while Sassuolo come in on a 3‑game winning streak (5W-1D-4L last 10). This form gap aligns with Away Win at 3.58, where the model’s 33.4% vs 27.9% implied gives +19.7% value.
Home Win: 37.4%Ferencvárosi win 6.6 corners per game and out-corner opponents in 7 of 10, while Braga have taken more corners than their opponents in 9 of 10, with games skewing to 4.3 corners in 2H. Asian Corners Over 9 at 1.9 (implied 52.6% vs model 35.7% for exactly 9+) is aggressive but fits a high-press, high-shot profile.
Genk are 7W-2D-1L in their last 10 and have scored 21 goals, more than double Freiburg’s 10, while the Germans are 1W-3D-6L in their last 10 away and average just 0.8 away goals. Yet the market prices Genk at 2.71 (36.9% implied) vs a 53.7% model chance, a huge +45.6% value on the home win.
Al Riyadh have hit just 8 goals in their last 10 (0.7 per home game) and failed to score in 4 of those, while Al Ittihad have 21 in 10 and scored in 9/10. The model gives Al Ittihad a 61.3% win chance and 57.4% for Ittihad over 1.5 goals, underlining a clear attacking mismatch.
Zwolle have scored in 9 of 10 and seen BTTS in 8 of those, while Groningen have 18 conceded and 7/10 over 2.5s. The model makes over 2.5 at 57.7% v implied 58.5% (1.71), so goals look likely but the price is fair rather than value.
Al-Fayha have scored in 9 of their last 10 and in 5 straight, overperforming xG (1.6 goals from 0.96 xG). They face an Al Ettifaq side conceding 2.0 goals per game in their last 10 away and 10 goals in their last 3 overall. Model makes Al-Fayha 75.8% to net (o0.5 home goals).
Al-Qadsiah concede just 0.6 per home game with 5 clean sheets in 10, while Al Ahli allow only 0.4 away with 8 clean sheets in 10. Yet both average 2.4 scored and project to 4.8 total goals; model leans under 3.5 (72.1%) despite their attacking numbers.
Gladbach have shipped 19 goals in their last 10 and St. Pauli 17, a combined 36 in 20 games, with Over 2.5 landing in 7 of Gladbach’s last 10 home and 7 of Pauli’s last 10 overall. Over 2.5 at 2.08 carries +5.1% value (model 50.5% vs implied 48.1%).
Torino ship 2.1 goals per game over their last 10 (21 conceded, -10 GD) and are conceding more than xGA, while Parma allow just 1.3 despite an xGA of 1.98 and have 4 away clean sheets in 10. With Torino only slight favourites at 2.14, Parma Draw No Bet at 2.38 looks an appealing way to back the more solid defence.
Colchester have conceded just 0.6 goals per game in their last 10 at home with 4 clean sheets, while Crawley have failed to score in 6 of their last 10 overall and average only 0.6 goals in their last 10 away. BTTS has landed in just 3 of Colchester’s last 10 and 2 of Crawley’s last 10; BTTS No at 2.08 has slight model edge (51.8% vs 48.1%, c.+7.7% value).
Marseille’s last 10 have exploded for 22 conceded and Over 2.5 in 9/10, but Auxerre have scored just 6 in 10 and failed to net in 7 of those, with three 0-0s. The clash of OM’s chaos and Auxerre’s toothless attack makes Under 2.5 at 2.14 (+7.7% value; model 50.4% vs 46.7% implied) a live angle.
Alavés are only slightly behind Villarreal on form (3W-2D-5L vs 4W-1D-5L) while the visitors have shipped 18 goals in 10 matches and 7/10 away saw BTTS. The model gives Alavés a 37.8% win chance vs 29.4% implied at 3.40, making the home win a +28.5% value lean.
BTTS (Both Teams To Score) probability indicates the likelihood that both teams will score at least one goal during the match, based on offensive and defensive statistics. Explore more BTTS statistics and trends across different leagues.
Value edge represents the percentage difference between our AI's calculated probability and the bookmaker's implied odds. A positive value suggests the bet may offer value. Find more opportunities on our value bets page.
Our AI model has been tested on thousands of historical football matches and achieves accuracy rates above industry standards. You can track our performance with our bet tracking tool. However, football is inherently unpredictable and no prediction is guaranteed.
We provide AI predictions for major European leagues including the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga, Ligue 1, and Championship. View all leagues on our fixtures page.
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OddAlerts is a football analytics platform providing AI-powered predictions since 2020. Our prediction model is developed by sports data scientists and continuously refined using machine learning techniques. We analyze over 100,000 matches annually across 2,500+ leagues to provide the most accurate and valuable insights. Discover trends, explore custom filters, or join thousands using our alert system.
