Data-Driven Match Insights & Betting Value Analysis
Al Fateh and Al Khaleej have shipped a combined 36 goals across their last 20 games, with BTTS landing in 7 of Fateh’s last 10 at home and 9 of Khaleej’s last 10 away. The model gives BTTS a strong 64.1% chance, fitting the mutual defensive frailty.
Home Win: 32.8%Atlético’s games have seen Over 2.5 goals in 8 of their last 10 overall and 8 of their last 10 at home, with BTTS in 8/10. Athletic’s away games also clear Over 2.5 in 7/10. That offensive and BTTS profile supports Over 2.5 Goals at 1.88, which our model rates at 54.5% vs 53.2% implied (+2.5% value).
Toulouse have shipped 20 goals in their last 10 games (2.0 per match) and 10 in their last 3, while Monaco bring 22 goals and 7W-1D-2L in the same span. With Monaco scoring in 10/10, the 2.15 away win implies 46.5% but our model is only 41.2%, so the price is fair rather than value.
Utrecht are 6W-2D-2L in their last 10 and have scored 19 goals to Excelsior’s 11, while the hosts have leaked 16 in that span and are winless in 3. That attacking mismatch underpins Utrecht at 2.20 (model 45.6% vs implied 45.5%, +0.4% value) as a marginally priced-away favourite.
Sassuolo have seen red in 3 of their last 10 games and 4 of those 10 featured a sending-off, while Fiorentina have had 1 red in the same sample – a clear disciplinary contrast. With Over 4.5 cards landing in 7 of Fiorentina’s last 10, this profiles as a card-heavy Serie A clash even without a specific cards line priced here.
Coventry have shipped just 7 goals and kept 5 clean sheets in their last 10, while Wrexham have conceded 19 and lost by 2+ in 4 of those – a clear defensive mismatch. The market reflects this with Coventry 1.69 at home, carrying a small +1.5% value edge.
Rayo have conceded just 11 goals in their last 10, with 4 clean sheets in their last 10 at home, while Real Sociedad’s matches are much wilder with 6 of their last 10 seeing 4+ goals and 16 conceded. The model leans cagey overall though, making Under 2.5 at 1.85 a +6.5% value (57.6% vs 54.1% implied).
Heracles are 1W-2D-7L in their last 10, with a -19 goal difference and 25 conceded, yet they face a Volendam side that’s 2W-1D-7L in their last 10 away, scoring just 0.7 per game. The model makes Heracles 51.5% to win, while 2.18 odds imply only 45.9% – a +12.3% value edge on Home Win.
Lorient are 6W-4D-0L in their last 10 at home, conceding just 0.6 goals per game with 5 clean sheets; only 3 of their last 10 overall have gone over 2.5 goals. Under 2.5 at 2.03 (implied 49.3% vs model 49.0%) is fairly priced but not a big value edge.
Genoa have failed to score in 4 of their last 10 and lost to nil in 3, while Como concede just 0.6 goals per game away with 5 clean sheets in their last 10 trips. BTTS No at 1.80 has no clear value (model 49.2% vs implied 55.6%), but the trends lean slightly to at least one side blanking.
Stuttgart average 16.7 shots and 7 on target per game and have scored 9 in their last 3, while Bremen are just 2W-2D-6L in their last 10 away. The model makes Stuttgart 55.96% to win vs 60.6% implied at 1.65, so the home price offers no value despite the attacking edge.
Oviedo allow just 0.4 goals per game in their last 10 home matches and have 7 clean sheets in that run, while Elche are 2W-1D-7L in their last 10 away and concede frequently. With the model giving Oviedo a 47.8% win chance vs 42.7% implied, Home Win at 2.34 carries +11.9% value.
BTTS (Both Teams To Score) probability indicates the likelihood that both teams will score at least one goal during the match, based on offensive and defensive statistics. Explore more BTTS statistics and trends across different leagues.
Value edge represents the percentage difference between our AI's calculated probability and the bookmaker's implied odds. A positive value suggests the bet may offer value. Find more opportunities on our value bets page.
Our AI model has been tested on thousands of historical football matches and achieves accuracy rates above industry standards. You can track our performance with our bet tracking tool. However, football is inherently unpredictable and no prediction is guaranteed.
We provide AI predictions for major European leagues including the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga, Ligue 1, and Championship. View all leagues on our fixtures page.
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OddAlerts is a football analytics platform providing AI-powered predictions since 2020. Our prediction model is developed by sports data scientists and continuously refined using machine learning techniques. We analyze over 100,000 matches annually across 2,500+ leagues to provide the most accurate and valuable insights. Discover trends, explore custom filters, or join thousands using our alert system.
