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Serie A Value Bets

Find EV Betting Opportunities

Value Bets for Serie A

Find value bets for Serie A fixtures. We compare our probability model against bookmaker odds to identify bets where the odds are higher than our implied probability suggests.

Coritiba vs Mirassol

medium

Sun 6th, 15:00

FT Result

Home

2.48 Fair: 2.34 Betfair Exchange

+5.98%

Model: 42.7%

HT Result

Draw

2.13 Fair: 2.12 Pinnacle

+0.47%

Model: 47.3%

Cruzeiro vs Athletico PR

medium

Sun 6th, 20:00

HT Result

Draw

2.27 Fair: 2.14 Pinnacle

+6.07%

Model: 46.7%

Remo vs Flamengo

medium

Sun 6th, 20:00

FT Result

Home

8.20 Fair: 5.31 Betfair Exchange

+54.43%

Model: 18.8%

FT Result

Draw

4.80 Fair: 3.86 Betfair Exchange

+24.35%

Model: 25.9%

Double Chance

Home Draw

2.75 Fair: 2.23 1xBet

+23.32%

Model: 44.8%

HT Result

Home

6.76 Fair: 5.60 Pinnacle

+20.71%

Model: 17.9%

HT Result

Draw

2.49 Fair: 2.42 Pinnacle

+2.89%

Model: 41.3%

BTTS

No

1.93 Fair: 1.92 FanDuel

+0.52%

Model: 52.2%

Internacional vs Santos

medium

Sun 6th, 20:00

BTTS

No

2.10 Fair: 1.82 Betfair Exchange

+15.38%

Model: 54.9%

FT Result

Draw

3.60 Fair: 3.50 Betano

+2.86%

Model: 28.6%

HT Result

Draw

2.29 Fair: 2.25 Pinnacle

+1.78%

Model: 44.5%

FT Result

Away

4.05 Fair: 4.00 Betano

+1.25%

Model: 25%

Botafogo vs Palmeiras

medium

Sun 6th, 22:30

BTTS

No

2.26 Fair: 2.02 Betfair Exchange

+11.88%

Model: 49.5%

FT Result

Home

3.45 Fair: 3.16 Betfair Exchange

+9.18%

Model: 31.6%

HT Result

Home

3.91 Fair: 3.70 Pinnacle

+5.68%

Model: 27.1%

HT Result

Draw

2.33 Fair: 2.21 Pinnacle

+5.43%

Model: 45.3%

FT Result

Draw

3.58 Fair: 3.42 1xBet

+4.68%

Model: 29.2%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.70 Fair: 1.64 Kambi Group

+3.66%

Model: 60.8%

Corinthians vs Chapecoense

medium

Sun 6th, 23:30

FT Result

Away

9.80 Fair: 6.08 Betfair Exchange

+61.18%

Model: 16.5%

Double Chance

Draw Away

3.02 Fair: 2.53 1xBet

+19.37%

Model: 39.5%

FT Result

Draw

5.00 Fair: 4.35 Betfair Exchange

+14.94%

Model: 23%

HT Result

Draw

2.53 Fair: 2.23 Pinnacle

+13.45%

Model: 44.8%

HT Result

Away

8.52 Fair: 7.55 Pinnacle

+12.85%

Model: 13.3%

BTTS

Yes

2.24 Fair: 2.11 FanDuel

+6.16%

Model: 47.5%

Vitória vs Grêmio

medium

Tue 8th, 00:00

FT Result

Home

2.22 Fair: 2.02 Betfair Exchange

+9.9%

Model: 49.5%

HT Result

Draw

2.17 Fair: 2.08 Pinnacle

+4.33%

Model: 48.1%

BTTS

No

2.02 Fair: 1.98 Betfair Exchange

+2.02%

Model: 50.5%

Coritiba vs Athletico PR

medium

Sat 12th, 01:00

BTTS

Yes

2.04 Fair: 1.78 FanDuel

+14.61%

Model: 56.3%

FT Result

Home

2.90 Fair: 2.67 Kambi Group

+8.61%

Model: 37.5%

Atlético Mineiro vs Fluminense

medium

Sat 12th, 20:00

FT Result

Home

2.43 Fair: 2.13 Kambi Group

+14.08%

Model: 46.8%

HT Result

Draw

2.12 Fair: 1.95 Pinnacle

+8.72%

Model: 51.2%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.36 Fair: 1.31 Bet365

+3.82%

Model: 76.5%

BTTS

No

1.86 Fair: 1.83 Kambi Group

+1.64%

Model: 54.8%

Grêmio vs Vasco da Gama

medium

Sat 12th, 20:00

BTTS

Yes

1.90 Fair: 1.79 Bet365

+6.15%

Model: 55.9%

FT Result

Away

3.60 Fair: 3.51 Betano

+2.56%

Model: 28.5%

Chapecoense vs Internacional

medium

Sat 12th, 21:00

FT Result

Home

2.94 Fair: 2.60 1xBet

+13.08%

Model: 38.5%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.53 Fair: 1.49 Bet365

+2.68%

Model: 67.2%

Palmeiras vs São Paulo

medium

Sat 12th, 22:30

FT Result

Home

1.70 Fair: 1.61 Betano

+5.59%

Model: 62%

BTTS

No

1.81 Fair: 1.77 FanDuel

+2.26%

Model: 56.6%

HT Result

Home

2.25 Fair: 2.23 Bet365

+0.9%

Model: 44.8%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.18 Fair: 1.17 Bet365

+0.85%

Model: 85.3%

Botafogo vs Bragantino

medium

Sun 13th, 00:30

FT Result

Home

2.32 Fair: 2.15 Kambi Group

+7.91%

Model: 46.5%

HT Result

Draw

2.20 Fair: 2.19 Bet365

+0.46%

Model: 45.6%

Santos vs Cruzeiro

medium

Sun 13th, 01:00

HT Result

Home

3.10 Fair: 2.54 Bet365

+22.05%

Model: 39.4%

FT Result

Home

2.49 Fair: 2.29 1xBet

+8.73%

Model: 43.7%

BTTS

No

2.06 Fair: 1.90 Kambi Group

+8.42%

Model: 52.7%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.43 Fair: 1.40 1xBet

+2.14%

Model: 71.7%

Mirassol vs Vitória

medium

Sun 13th, 20:00

BTTS

No

1.90 Fair: 1.86 Bet365

+2.15%

Model: 53.9%

Flamengo vs Corinthians

medium

Sun 13th, 21:30

HT Result

Away

8.00 Fair: 7.36 Bet365

+8.7%

Model: 13.6%

FT Result

Away

8.20 Fair: 7.69 1xBet

+6.63%

Model: 13%

medium

Tue 15th, 00:00

FT Result

Away

8.00 Fair: 7.46 Bet365

+7.24%

Model: 13.4%

What is a Value Bet?

A value bet exists when the bookmaker's odds are higher than our calculated fair odds (implied from probability). This means the bookmaker is offering better odds than the true probability suggests.

How We Calculate Value

We convert our probability model's prediction into implied odds using: Fair Odds = 100 / Probability%

For example, if we give a 50% chance to an outcome, the fair odds would be 2.00. If the bookmaker offers 2.20, that's a +10% value bet.

Value % Explained

0-5% - Small value edge
5-10% - Good value
10%+ - Strong value

More Value Bets

Looking for value bets across all leagues? Visit our main Value Bets page for comprehensive coverage.