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Champions League Value Bets

Find EV Betting Opportunities

Value Bets for Champions League

Find value bets for Champions League fixtures. We compare our probability model against bookmaker odds to identify bets where the odds are higher than our implied probability suggests.

AEK Athens vs LASK

medium

Tue 8th, 17:45

HT Result

Away

4.68 Fair: 4.32 Pinnacle

+8.33%

Model: 23.2%

BTTS

No

2.36 Fair: 2.20 Betfair Exchange

+7.27%

Model: 45.5%

FT Result

Away

4.52 Fair: 4.25 1xBet

+6.35%

Model: 23.5%

HT Result

Draw

2.49 Fair: 2.38 Pinnacle

+4.62%

Model: 42%

Double Chance

Draw Away

2.12 Fair: 2.06 1xBet

+2.91%

Model: 48.5%

FT Result

Draw

4.10 Fair: 4.00 Betfair Exchange

+2.5%

Model: 25%

Club Brugge vs Aston Villa

medium

Tue 8th, 17:45

FT Result

Home

2.82 Fair: 1.69 Betfair Exchange

+66.86%

Model: 59.2%

HT Result

Home

3.26 Fair: 2.29 Pinnacle

+42.36%

Model: 43.8%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.58 Fair: 1.26 1xBet

+25.4%

Model: 79.3%

BTTS

No

2.50 Fair: 2.22 Betfair Exchange

+12.61%

Model: 45.1%

Double Chance

Home Away

1.30 Fair: 1.25 WilliamHill

+4%

Model: 79.8%

Porto vs Manchester City

medium

Tue 8th, 20:00

FT Result

Home

4.80 Fair: 2.20 Betfair Exchange

+118.18%

Model: 45.5%

HT Result

Home

4.80 Fair: 2.88 Pinnacle

+66.67%

Model: 34.8%

Double Chance

Home Draw

2.14 Fair: 1.46 1xBet

+46.58%

Model: 68.5%

BTTS

No

2.30 Fair: 2.27 Betfair Exchange

+1.32%

Model: 44.1%

Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal

medium

Tue 8th, 20:00

BTTS

No

2.62 Fair: 2.19 Betfair Exchange

+19.63%

Model: 45.6%

Real Madrid vs Inter

medium

Tue 8th, 20:00

FT Result

Away

5.40 Fair: 3.41 Betfair Exchange

+58.36%

Model: 29.3%

HT Result

Away

5.17 Fair: 3.48 Pinnacle

+48.56%

Model: 28.8%

Double Chance

Draw Away

2.43 Fair: 1.91 Kambi Group

+27.23%

Model: 52.4%

FT Result

Draw

4.60 Fair: 4.33 Betfair Exchange

+6.24%

Model: 23.1%

LOSC Lille vs Real Betis

medium

Tue 8th, 20:00

BTTS

No

2.32 Fair: 2.01 Betfair Exchange

+15.42%

Model: 49.6%

HT Result

Draw

2.32 Fair: 2.27 Pinnacle

+2.2%

Model: 44%

FT Result

Away

3.30 Fair: 3.23 Betano

+2.17%

Model: 31%

VfB Stuttgart vs Viking

medium

Wed 9th, 17:45

FT Result

Away

12.50 Fair: 3.14 Betfair Exchange

+298.09%

Model: 31.9%

Double Chance

Draw Away

4.22 Fair: 1.81 1xBet

+133.15%

Model: 55.2%

HT Result

Away

8.00 Fair: 3.86 Bet365

+107.25%

Model: 25.9%

FT Result

Draw

7.00 Fair: 4.29 FanDuel

+63.17%

Model: 23.3%

HT Result

Draw

3.30 Fair: 2.87 Kambi Group

+14.98%

Model: 34.8%

BTTS

Yes

1.71 Fair: 1.70 Betfair Exchange

+0.59%

Model: 59%

FC Barcelona vs Feyenoord

medium

Wed 9th, 17:45

FT Result

Away

23.00 Fair: 5.50 Kambi Group

+318.18%

Model: 18.2%

HT Result

Away

12.00 Fair: 3.93 Bet365

+205.34%

Model: 25.4%

Double Chance

Draw Away

6.85 Fair: 2.68 1xBet

+155.6%

Model: 37.4%

FT Result

Draw

12.50 Fair: 5.21 Betfair Exchange

+139.92%

Model: 19.2%

HT Result

Draw

3.99 Fair: 3.19 Pinnacle

+25.08%

Model: 31.3%

BTTS

Yes

2.00 Fair: 1.74 Kambi Group

+14.94%

Model: 57.5%

Liverpool vs Atlético de Madrid

medium

Wed 9th, 20:00

FT Result

Away

4.83 Fair: 3.47 1xBet

+39.19%

Model: 28.8%

Double Chance

Draw Away

2.18 Fair: 1.89 1xBet

+15.34%

Model: 53%

HT Result

Away

4.90 Fair: 4.45 Pinnacle

+10.11%

Model: 22.5%

FT Result

Draw

4.22 Fair: 4.14 1xBet

+1.93%

Model: 24.2%

BTTS

No

2.36 Fair: 2.32 Betfair Exchange

+1.72%

Model: 43.2%

Paris Saint Germain vs Slovan Bratislava

medium

Wed 9th, 20:00

FT Result

Away

60.00 Fair: 4.50 Betano

+1233.33%

Model: 22.2%

HT Result

Away

23.00 Fair: 3.68 Bet365

+525%

Model: 27.1%

Double Chance

Draw Away

13.00 Fair: 2.31 Bet365

+462.77%

Model: 43.3%

FT Result

Draw

22.49 Fair: 4.75 Pinnacle

+373.47%

Model: 21%

HT Result

Draw

4.95 Fair: 2.95 1xBet

+67.8%

Model: 33.9%

BTTS

Yes

3.00 Fair: 2.04 Betfair Exchange

+47.06%

Model: 49%

Sporting CP vs Galatasaray

medium

Wed 9th, 20:00

FT Result

Away

4.07 Fair: 2.98 1xBet

+36.58%

Model: 33.6%

Double Chance

Draw Away

1.96 Fair: 1.79 1xBet

+9.5%

Model: 55.9%

HT Result

Away

4.40 Fair: 4.13 1xBet

+6.54%

Model: 24.2%

BTTS

Yes

1.62 Fair: 1.57 WilliamHill

+3.18%

Model: 63.6%

Double Chance

Home Away

1.30 Fair: 1.29 1xBet

+0.78%

Model: 77.6%

Napoli vs Arsenal

medium

Wed 9th, 20:00

FT Result

Home

4.60 Fair: 3.10 Betfair Exchange

+48.39%

Model: 32.2%

HT Result

Home

4.88 Fair: 3.38 Pinnacle

+44.38%

Model: 29.6%

Double Chance

Home Draw

2.01 Fair: 1.79 1xBet

+12.29%

Model: 56%

BTTS

Yes

1.87 Fair: 1.84 Betfair Exchange

+1.63%

Model: 54.3%

PSV vs Shakhtar Donetsk

medium

Thu 10th, 17:45

FT Result

Away

7.50 Fair: 3.49 Kambi Group

+114.9%

Model: 28.7%

HT Result

Away

6.40 Fair: 3.66 Pinnacle

+74.86%

Model: 27.3%

Double Chance

Draw Away

2.92 Fair: 1.94 1xBet

+50.52%

Model: 51.7%

FT Result

Draw

5.10 Fair: 4.35 FanDuel

+17.24%

Model: 23%

HT Result

Draw

2.76 Fair: 2.61 Pinnacle

+5.75%

Model: 38.4%

Fenerbahçe vs Roma

medium

Thu 10th, 17:45

FT Result

Home

3.30 Fair: 1.81 Betfair Exchange

+82.32%

Model: 55.2%

HT Result

Home

3.60 Fair: 2.61 Bet365

+37.93%

Model: 38.3%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.66 Fair: 1.28 Bet365

+29.69%

Model: 78.1%

BTTS

No

2.26 Fair: 2.02 Betfair Exchange

+11.88%

Model: 49.6%

Double Chance

Home Away

1.33 Fair: 1.30 1xBet

+2.31%

Model: 77.2%

Slavia Praha vs Lens

medium

Thu 10th, 20:00

FT Result

Home

2.95 Fair: 2.09 1xBet

+41.15%

Model: 47.8%

HT Result

Home

3.48 Fair: 2.65 1xBet

+31.32%

Model: 37.8%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.58 Fair: 1.41 1xBet

+12.06%

Model: 71.1%

Double Chance

Home Away

1.34 Fair: 1.30 1xBet

+3.08%

Model: 76.7%

Manchester United vs Sabah

medium

Thu 10th, 20:00

FT Result

Away

26.00 Fair: 4.31 1xBet

+503.25%

Model: 23.2%

HT Result

Away

13.20 Fair: 4.19 1xBet

+215.04%

Model: 23.8%

Double Chance

Draw Away

5.75 Fair: 2.16 1xBet

+166.2%

Model: 46.4%

FT Result

Draw

9.20 Fair: 4.32 Betfair Exchange

+112.96%

Model: 23.2%

HT Result

Draw

3.80 Fair: 2.50 Pinnacle

+52%

Model: 40%

BTTS

Yes

1.98 Fair: 1.83 Betfair Exchange

+8.2%

Model: 54.6%

FC Bayern München vs Bodø / Glimt

medium

Thu 10th, 20:00

FT Result

Away

19.00 Fair: 4.55 Betfair Exchange

+317.58%

Model: 22%

Double Chance

Draw Away

6.30 Fair: 2.22 1xBet

+183.78%

Model: 45.1%

FT Result

Draw

11.00 Fair: 4.33 Betfair Exchange

+154.04%

Model: 23.1%

HT Result

Away

10.00 Fair: 4.34 Bet365

+130.41%

Model: 23%

HT Result

Draw

4.23 Fair: 3.09 Pinnacle

+36.89%

Model: 32.4%

BTTS

No

2.46 Fair: 2.38 Betfair Exchange

+3.36%

Model: 42%

Como vs RB Leipzig

medium

Thu 10th, 20:00

FT Result

Away

4.00 Fair: 3.18 Betfair Exchange

+25.79%

Model: 31.4%

HT Result

Away

4.10 Fair: 3.59 1xBet

+14.21%

Model: 27.9%

BTTS

No

2.50 Fair: 2.30 Betfair Exchange

+8.7%

Model: 43.4%

Double Chance

Draw Away

1.92 Fair: 1.81 1xBet

+6.08%

Model: 55.2%

What is a Value Bet?

A value bet exists when the bookmaker's odds are higher than our calculated fair odds (implied from probability). This means the bookmaker is offering better odds than the true probability suggests.

How We Calculate Value

We convert our probability model's prediction into implied odds using: Fair Odds = 100 / Probability%

For example, if we give a 50% chance to an outcome, the fair odds would be 2.00. If the bookmaker offers 2.20, that's a +10% value bet.

Value % Explained

0-5% - Small value edge
5-10% - Good value
10%+ - Strong value

More Value Bets

Looking for value bets across all leagues? Visit our main Value Bets page for comprehensive coverage.