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Ligue 1 Value Bets

Find EV Betting Opportunities

Value Bets for Ligue 1

Find value bets for Ligue 1 fixtures. We compare our probability model against bookmaker odds to identify bets where the odds are higher than our implied probability suggests.

Paris Saint Germain vs Toulouse

high

Fri 3rd, 19:45

FT Result

Away

12.00 Fair: 5.55 Betfair Exchange

+116.22%

Model: 18%

HT Result

Away

9.37 Fair: 4.78 Pinnacle

+96.03%

Model: 20.9%

Double Chance

Draw Away

3.72 Fair: 2.51 1xBet

+48.21%

Model: 39.8%

FT Result

Draw

6.00 Fair: 4.59 Betfair Exchange

+30.72%

Model: 21.8%

BTTS

Yes

2.08 Fair: 1.90 Betfair Exchange

+9.47%

Model: 52.8%

HT Result

Draw

2.89 Fair: 2.68 Pinnacle

+7.84%

Model: 37.3%

Strasbourg vs Nice

high

Sat 4th, 16:00

BTTS

No

2.30 Fair: 1.99 Betfair Exchange

+15.58%

Model: 50.4%

FT Result

Home

1.89 Fair: 1.82 1xBet

+3.85%

Model: 55.1%

Brest vs Rennes

high

Sat 4th, 18:00

FT Result

Home

3.35 Fair: 2.44 Betfair Exchange

+37.3%

Model: 41%

HT Result

Home

3.87 Fair: 3.22 Pinnacle

+20.19%

Model: 31.1%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.72 Fair: 1.52 1xBet

+13.16%

Model: 65.9%

BTTS

Yes

1.75 Fair: 1.67 Betfair Exchange

+4.79%

Model: 60.1%

LOSC Lille vs Lens

high

Sat 4th, 20:05

FT Result

Away

2.76 Fair: 2.62 1xBet

+5.34%

Model: 38.2%

BTTS

No

2.36 Fair: 2.30 Betfair Exchange

+2.61%

Model: 43.5%

Double Chance

Home Away

1.36 Fair: 1.34 1xBet

+1.49%

Model: 74.8%

FT Result

Home

2.74 Fair: 2.73 1xBet

+0.37%

Model: 36.6%

Angers SCO vs Olympique Lyonnais

high

Sun 5th, 14:00

FT Result

Home

5.10 Fair: 3.82 Betfair Exchange

+33.51%

Model: 26.2%

HT Result

Home

5.47 Fair: 4.83 Pinnacle

+13.25%

Model: 20.7%

BTTS

Yes

2.08 Fair: 1.87 Betfair Exchange

+11.23%

Model: 53.6%

Double Chance

Home Draw

2.05 Fair: 1.96 1xBet

+4.59%

Model: 51%

high

Sun 5th, 16:15

FT Result

Home

3.06 Fair: 2.51 1xBet

+21.91%

Model: 39.9%

HT Result

Home

3.78 Fair: 3.11 Pinnacle

+21.54%

Model: 32.1%

BTTS

Yes

1.94 Fair: 1.86 Betfair Exchange

+4.3%

Model: 53.7%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.58 Fair: 1.52 1xBet

+3.95%

Model: 65.6%

Double Chance

Home Away

1.37 Fair: 1.35 1xBet

+1.48%

Model: 74.3%

Le Havre vs Auxerre

high

Sun 5th, 16:15

HT Result

Away

4.08 Fair: 3.63 Pinnacle

+12.4%

Model: 27.6%

FT Result

Away

3.40 Fair: 3.13 Bet365

+8.63%

Model: 31.9%

Double Chance

Home Away

1.39 Fair: 1.38 1xBet

+0.72%

Model: 72.7%

Lorient vs Paris

high

Sun 5th, 16:15

FT Result

Home

2.38 Fair: 2.14 1xBet

+11.21%

Model: 46.8%

BTTS

No

2.06 Fair: 1.86 Betfair Exchange

+10.75%

Model: 53.8%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.38 Fair: 1.33 1xBet

+3.76%

Model: 74.9%

HT Result

Home

3.00 Fair: 2.92 Bet365

+2.74%

Model: 34.3%

Monaco vs Olympique Marseille

high

Sun 5th, 19:45

FT Result

Away

3.23 Fair: 2.85 1xBet

+13.33%

Model: 35.1%

HT Result

Away

3.61 Fair: 3.25 Pinnacle

+11.08%

Model: 30.7%

BTTS

No

2.75 Fair: 2.68 Kambi Group

+2.61%

Model: 37.4%

Double Chance

Home Away

1.32 Fair: 1.30 1xBet

+1.54%

Model: 77%

Paris vs Monaco

high

Fri 10th, 18:00

HT Result

Home

3.75 Fair: 3.06 Bet365

+22.55%

Model: 32.7%

FT Result

Home

3.43 Fair: 2.95 1xBet

+16.27%

Model: 33.9%

BTTS

No

2.32 Fair: 2.10 Betfair Exchange

+10.48%

Model: 47.5%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.72 Fair: 1.65 Bet365

+4.24%

Model: 60.5%

FT Result

Draw

3.81 Fair: 3.76 1xBet

+1.33%

Model: 26.6%

Olympique Marseille vs Metz

high

Fri 10th, 20:05

HT Result

Away

8.50 Fair: 5.96 Bet365

+42.62%

Model: 16.8%

FT Result

Away

10.90 Fair: 7.81 1xBet

+39.56%

Model: 12.8%

FT Result

Draw

6.20 Fair: 4.86 1xBet

+27.57%

Model: 20.6%

Double Chance

Draw Away

3.75 Fair: 3.00 Bet365

+25%

Model: 33.4%

BTTS

No

1.90 Fair: 1.85 Bet365

+2.7%

Model: 54.1%

HT Result

Draw

2.87 Fair: 2.85 Bet365

+0.7%

Model: 35%

Auxerre vs Nantes

high

Sat 11th, 18:00

HT Result

Away

4.33 Fair: 4.14 Bet365

+4.59%

Model: 24.1%

FT Result

Away

3.86 Fair: 3.73 1xBet

+3.49%

Model: 26.8%

Rennes vs Angers SCO

high

Sat 11th, 20:05

FT Result

Away

8.20 Fair: 5.69 1xBet

+44.11%

Model: 17.6%

HT Result

Away

7.00 Fair: 5.83 Bet365

+20.07%

Model: 17.2%

FT Result

Draw

4.98 Fair: 4.45 1xBet

+11.91%

Model: 22.5%

Double Chance

Draw Away

2.75 Fair: 2.50 Bet365

+10%

Model: 40.1%

Toulouse vs LOSC Lille

high

Sun 12th, 16:15

FT Result

Home

3.18 Fair: 2.73 1xBet

+16.48%

Model: 36.6%

BTTS

Yes

1.90 Fair: 1.86 Bet365

+2.15%

Model: 53.7%

HT Result

Home

3.60 Fair: 3.58 Bet365

+0.56%

Model: 27.9%

Nice vs Le Havre

high

Sun 12th, 16:15

FT Result

Away

4.73 Fair: 3.57 Pinnacle

+32.49%

Model: 28%

HT Result

Away

4.33 Fair: 4.00 Bet365

+8.25%

Model: 25%

Olympique Lyonnais vs Lorient

high

Sun 12th, 19:45

FT Result

Away

5.10 Fair: 3.92 Betfair Exchange

+30.1%

Model: 25.5%

HT Result

Away

5.00 Fair: 4.13 Bet365

+21.07%

Model: 24.2%

Double Chance

Draw Away

2.10 Fair: 1.99 Bet365

+5.53%

Model: 50.2%

What is a Value Bet?

A value bet exists when the bookmaker's odds are higher than our calculated fair odds (implied from probability). This means the bookmaker is offering better odds than the true probability suggests.

How We Calculate Value

We convert our probability model's prediction into implied odds using: Fair Odds = 100 / Probability%

For example, if we give a 50% chance to an outcome, the fair odds would be 2.00. If the bookmaker offers 2.20, that's a +10% value bet.

Value % Explained

0-5% - Small value edge
5-10% - Good value
10%+ - Strong value

More Value Bets

Looking for value bets across all leagues? Visit our main Value Bets page for comprehensive coverage.