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Ligue 1 Value Bets

Find EV Betting Opportunities

Value Bets for Ligue 1

Find value bets for Ligue 1 fixtures. We compare our probability model against bookmaker odds to identify bets where the odds are higher than our implied probability suggests.

high

Fri 23rd, 19:45

BTTS

No

2.46 Fair: 2.15 Betfair Exchange

+14.42%

Model: 46.6%

FT Result

Home

2.31 Fair: 2.13 1xBet

+8.45%

Model: 47%

HT Result

Draw

2.41 Fair: 2.37 Pinnacle

+1.69%

Model: 42.2%

Toulouse vs Troyes

high

Sat 24th, 16:15

FT Result

Away

5.50 Fair: 2.83 Bet365

+94.35%

Model: 35.3%

Double Chance

Draw Away

2.28 Fair: 1.65 1xBet

+38.18%

Model: 60.6%

HT Result

Away

5.41 Fair: 4.11 Pinnacle

+31.63%

Model: 24.4%

HT Result

Draw

2.58 Fair: 2.08 Pinnacle

+24.04%

Model: 48.2%

FT Result

Draw

4.30 Fair: 3.97 FanDuel

+8.31%

Model: 25.2%

BTTS

No

2.28 Fair: 2.27 Betfair Exchange

+0.44%

Model: 44%

high

Sat 24th, 19:45

FT Result

Home

2.48 Fair: 2.04 Betfair Exchange

+21.57%

Model: 49%

HT Result

Home

2.94 Fair: 2.68 Pinnacle

+9.7%

Model: 37.3%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.45 Fair: 1.38 1xBet

+5.07%

Model: 72.6%

BTTS

No

2.60 Fair: 2.57 Betfair Exchange

+1.17%

Model: 38.9%

HT Result

Draw

2.44 Fair: 2.42 Pinnacle

+0.83%

Model: 41.3%

Monaco vs LOSC Lille

high

Sun 25th, 14:00

FT Result

Away

3.83 Fair: 3.28 Pinnacle

+16.77%

Model: 30.5%

BTTS

Yes

1.73 Fair: 1.60 Betfair Exchange

+8.12%

Model: 62.3%

HT Result

Away

4.22 Fair: 3.96 Pinnacle

+6.57%

Model: 25.2%

Double Chance

Home Away

1.36 Fair: 1.30 1xBet

+4.62%

Model: 76.7%

FT Result

Home

2.22 Fair: 2.17 1xBet

+2.3%

Model: 46.2%

Rennes vs Strasbourg

high

Sun 25th, 16:15

BTTS

No

2.80 Fair: 2.32 Betfair Exchange

+20.69%

Model: 43.1%

FT Result

Home

1.81 Fair: 1.63 Betfair Exchange

+11.04%

Model: 61.2%

HT Result

Draw

2.71 Fair: 2.58 Pinnacle

+5.04%

Model: 38.7%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.25 Fair: 1.22 1xBet

+2.46%

Model: 82.1%

Auxerre vs Le Mans

high

Sun 25th, 16:15

HT Result

Draw

2.45 Fair: 2.27 Pinnacle

+7.93%

Model: 44%

BTTS

No

2.42 Fair: 2.25 Betfair Exchange

+7.56%

Model: 44.5%

FT Result

Home

2.23 Fair: 2.08 1xBet

+7.21%

Model: 48%

Olympique Marseille vs Le Havre

high

Sun 25th, 16:15

FT Result

Away

5.75 Fair: 4.92 Bet365

+16.87%

Model: 20.3%

FT Result

Draw

4.90 Fair: 4.43 Betfair Exchange

+10.61%

Model: 22.6%

BTTS

No

2.30 Fair: 2.12 FanDuel

+8.49%

Model: 47.2%

HT Result

Away

5.29 Fair: 4.92 Pinnacle

+7.52%

Model: 20.3%

Double Chance

Draw Away

2.46 Fair: 2.33 1xBet

+5.58%

Model: 42.9%

HT Result

Draw

2.66 Fair: 2.64 Pinnacle

+0.76%

Model: 37.8%

Angers SCO vs Lorient

high

Sun 25th, 16:15

FT Result

Home

3.10 Fair: 2.92 Betfair Exchange

+6.16%

Model: 34.2%

HT Result

Draw

2.24 Fair: 2.19 Pinnacle

+2.28%

Model: 45.6%

Paris Saint Germain vs Olympique Lyonnais

high

Sun 25th, 19:45

BTTS

No

2.58 Fair: 2.00 FanDuel

+29%

Model: 49.9%

FT Result

Draw

5.50 Fair: 5.08 Pinnacle

+8.27%

Model: 19.7%

HT Result

Home

1.84 Fair: 1.77 1xBet

+3.95%

Model: 56.4%

Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain

high

Fri 30th, 18:00

FT Result

Home

12.00 Fair: 6.86 Betfair Exchange

+74.93%

Model: 14.6%

FT Result

Draw

7.20 Fair: 4.95 Betfair Exchange

+45.45%

Model: 20.2%

HT Result

Home

7.50 Fair: 5.60 Bet365

+33.93%

Model: 17.9%

Double Chance

Home Draw

3.75 Fair: 2.87 Bet365

+30.66%

Model: 34.8%

BTTS

No

2.12 Fair: 1.95 1xBet

+8.72%

Model: 51.3%

HT Result

Draw

3.00 Fair: 2.86 Bet365

+4.9%

Model: 34.9%

LOSC Lille vs Lens

high

Fri 30th, 20:05

FT Result

Away

3.02 Fair: 2.58 Pinnacle

+17.05%

Model: 38.7%

HT Result

Away

3.40 Fair: 3.17 Bet365

+7.26%

Model: 31.6%

Double Chance

Draw Away

1.66 Fair: 1.55 Bet365

+7.1%

Model: 64.5%

BTTS

No

2.35 Fair: 2.27 1xBet

+3.52%

Model: 44%

high

Sat 31st, 16:15

FT Result

Home

2.78 Fair: 2.43 Pinnacle

+14.4%

Model: 41.1%

BTTS

No

2.80 Fair: 2.50 Betfair Exchange

+12%

Model: 40%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.53 Fair: 1.51 Bet365

+1.32%

Model: 66%

Lorient vs Brest

high

Sat 31st, 19:45

FT Result

Home

2.73 Fair: 2.21 1xBet

+23.53%

Model: 45.2%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.50 Fair: 1.39 Bet365

+7.91%

Model: 71.9%

BTTS

No

2.20 Fair: 2.09 Betfair Exchange

+5.26%

Model: 47.8%

Troyes vs Le Mans

high

Sat 31st, 19:45

FT Result

Away

3.44 Fair: 3.41 1xBet

+0.88%

Model: 29.4%

Olympique Lyonnais vs Angers SCO

high

Sat 31st, 19:45

FT Result

Away

7.80 Fair: 5.14 Betfair Exchange

+51.75%

Model: 19.4%

HT Result

Away

6.50 Fair: 5.51 Bet365

+17.97%

Model: 18.1%

FT Result

Draw

5.24 Fair: 4.61 1xBet

+13.67%

Model: 21.7%

Double Chance

Draw Away

2.75 Fair: 2.43 Bet365

+13.17%

Model: 41.1%

BTTS

Yes

1.85 Fair: 1.71 Betfair Exchange

+8.19%

Model: 58.3%

Strasbourg vs Auxerre

high

Sun 1st, 14:00

FT Result

Away

4.16 Fair: 3.74 1xBet

+11.23%

Model: 26.7%

HT Result

Away

4.00 Fair: 3.87 Bet365

+3.36%

Model: 25.9%

FT Result

Draw

4.16 Fair: 4.11 1xBet

+1.22%

Model: 24.3%

Paris vs Monaco

high

Sun 1st, 16:15

FT Result

Away

3.00 Fair: 2.81 1xBet

+6.76%

Model: 35.6%

Olympique Marseille vs Toulouse

high

Sun 1st, 19:45

FT Result

Away

4.08 Fair: 3.63 1xBet

+12.4%

Model: 27.5%

BTTS

No

2.50 Fair: 2.27 Betfair Exchange

+10.13%

Model: 44.1%

Double Chance

Draw Away

1.95 Fair: 1.90 Bet365

+2.63%

Model: 52.5%

FT Result

Draw

4.08 Fair: 4.00 1xBet

+2%

Model: 25%

What is a Value Bet?

A value bet exists when the bookmaker's odds are higher than our calculated fair odds (implied from probability). This means the bookmaker is offering better odds than the true probability suggests.

How We Calculate Value

We convert our probability model's prediction into implied odds using: Fair Odds = 100 / Probability%

For example, if we give a 50% chance to an outcome, the fair odds would be 2.00. If the bookmaker offers 2.20, that's a +10% value bet.

Value % Explained

0-5% - Small value edge
5-10% - Good value
10%+ - Strong value

More Value Bets

Looking for value bets across all leagues? Visit our main Value Bets page for comprehensive coverage.