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Eredivisie Value Bets

Find EV Betting Opportunities

Value Bets for Eredivisie

Find value bets for Eredivisie fixtures. We compare our probability model against bookmaker odds to identify bets where the odds are higher than our implied probability suggests.

PSV vs FC Utrecht

good

Sat 4th, 15:30

FT Result

Away

6.75 Fair: 4.07 Kambi Group

+65.85%

Model: 24.6%

HT Result

Away

5.76 Fair: 4.40 Pinnacle

+30.91%

Model: 22.7%

Double Chance

Draw Away

2.50 Fair: 2.12 Bet365

+17.92%

Model: 47.3%

FT Result

Draw

4.75 Fair: 4.41 Bet365

+7.71%

Model: 22.7%

BTTS

No

2.40 Fair: 2.30 Betfair Exchange

+4.35%

Model: 43.5%

Telstar vs FC Groningen

good

Sat 4th, 17:45

FT Result

Home

2.63 Fair: 2.32 1xBet

+13.36%

Model: 43.1%

HT Result

Home

3.10 Fair: 2.88 Bet365

+7.64%

Model: 34.7%

BTTS

No

2.56 Fair: 2.47 Betfair Exchange

+3.64%

Model: 40.5%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.53 Fair: 1.48 Bet365

+3.38%

Model: 67.4%

AZ vs Fortuna Sittard

good

Sat 4th, 17:45

FT Result

Away

9.00 Fair: 6.86 Betfair Exchange

+31.2%

Model: 14.6%

HT Result

Away

7.28 Fair: 6.01 Pinnacle

+21.13%

Model: 16.6%

Double Chance

Draw Away

3.25 Fair: 2.99 Bet365

+8.7%

Model: 33.4%

FT Result

Draw

5.70 Fair: 5.31 Betfair Exchange

+7.34%

Model: 18.8%

BTTS

No

2.23 Fair: 2.17 Kambi Group

+2.76%

Model: 46%

Excelsior vs NEC Nijmegen

good

Sat 4th, 20:00

BTTS

No

2.60 Fair: 2.17 Kambi Group

+19.82%

Model: 46.2%

HT Result

Home

3.80 Fair: 3.37 Pinnacle

+12.76%

Model: 29.6%

FT Result

Home

3.65 Fair: 3.58 Kambi Group

+1.96%

Model: 27.9%

Ajax vs FC Twente

good

Sat 4th, 20:00

BTTS

No

2.63 Fair: 2.25 Kambi Group

+16.89%

Model: 44.4%

FT Result

Away

2.88 Fair: 2.58 Pinnacle

+11.63%

Model: 38.7%

Double Chance

Draw Away

1.62 Fair: 1.56 WilliamHill

+3.85%

Model: 64.1%

Go Ahead Eagles vs PEC Zwolle

good

Sun 5th, 11:15

BTTS

No

2.65 Fair: 2.13 Kambi Group

+24.41%

Model: 47%

FT Result

Home

1.96 Fair: 1.86 1xBet

+5.38%

Model: 53.7%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.30 Fair: 1.28 Bet365

+1.56%

Model: 78%

FC Volendam vs Feyenoord

good

Sun 5th, 13:30

FT Result

Home

6.40 Fair: 2.83 Kambi Group

+126.15%

Model: 35.3%

HT Result

Home

5.75 Fair: 3.21 Pinnacle

+79.13%

Model: 31.2%

Double Chance

Home Draw

2.65 Fair: 1.71 Kambi Group

+54.97%

Model: 58.5%

FT Result

Draw

5.00 Fair: 4.32 Bet365

+15.74%

Model: 23.1%

HT Result

Draw

2.76 Fair: 2.63 Pinnacle

+4.94%

Model: 38.1%

BTTS

Yes

1.64 Fair: 1.57 Betfair Exchange

+4.46%

Model: 63.7%

SC Heerenveen vs Heracles Almelo

good

Sun 5th, 13:30

BTTS

No

2.40 Fair: 2.27 Kambi Group

+5.73%

Model: 44%

FT Result

Home

1.52 Fair: 1.48 Pinnacle

+2.7%

Model: 67.7%

HT Result

Home

1.95 Fair: 1.92 Bet365

+1.56%

Model: 52.2%

NAC Breda vs Sparta Rotterdam

good

Sun 5th, 15:45

FT Result

Away

2.88 Fair: 2.73 Betfair Exchange

+5.49%

Model: 36.6%

HT Result

Home

3.09 Fair: 3.01 Pinnacle

+2.66%

Model: 33.2%

BTTS

Yes

1.70 Fair: 1.69 Bet365

+0.59%

Model: 59.2%

FC Twente vs FC Volendam

good

Fri 10th, 19:00

FT Result

Away

15.00 Fair: 7.33 Bet365

+104.64%

Model: 13.6%

HT Result

Away

11.00 Fair: 5.73 Bet365

+91.97%

Model: 17.5%

Double Chance

Draw Away

5.00 Fair: 2.98 Bet365

+67.79%

Model: 33.6%

FT Result

Draw

7.60 Fair: 5.01 1xBet

+51.7%

Model: 20%

HT Result

Draw

3.25 Fair: 2.85 Bet365

+14.04%

Model: 35.1%

FC Utrecht vs Telstar

good

Sat 11th, 15:30

FT Result

Away

5.75 Fair: 3.60 Bet365

+59.72%

Model: 27.8%

HT Result

Away

5.50 Fair: 4.02 Bet365

+36.82%

Model: 24.9%

Double Chance

Draw Away

2.37 Fair: 1.90 Bet365

+24.74%

Model: 52.6%

HT Result

Draw

2.50 Fair: 2.42 Bet365

+3.31%

Model: 41.3%

FT Result

Draw

4.12 Fair: 4.03 1xBet

+2.23%

Model: 24.8%

Sparta Rotterdam vs PSV

good

Sat 11th, 17:45

HT Result

Home

4.50 Fair: 3.52 Bet365

+27.84%

Model: 28.4%

FT Result

Home

4.58 Fair: 3.66 1xBet

+25.14%

Model: 27.3%

Double Chance

Home Draw

2.25 Fair: 2.00 Bet365

+12.5%

Model: 50.1%

BTTS

No

2.62 Fair: 2.43 Bet365

+7.82%

Model: 41.1%

FC Groningen vs Go Ahead Eagles

good

Sat 11th, 19:00

BTTS

No

2.20 Fair: 2.15 Bet365

+2.33%

Model: 46.5%

FT Result

Away

4.17 Fair: 4.09 1xBet

+1.96%

Model: 24.5%

Heracles Almelo vs Ajax

good

Sat 11th, 20:00

FT Result

Home

5.75 Fair: 3.21 Bet365

+79.13%

Model: 31.1%

HT Result

Home

5.50 Fair: 3.36 Bet365

+63.69%

Model: 29.8%

Double Chance

Home Draw

2.50 Fair: 1.76 Bet365

+42.05%

Model: 56.7%

FT Result

Draw

4.42 Fair: 3.91 1xBet

+13.04%

Model: 25.6%

BTTS

No

2.25 Fair: 2.23 Bet365

+0.9%

Model: 44.8%

Fortuna Sittard vs NAC Breda

good

Sun 12th, 11:15

FT Result

Away

3.23 Fair: 2.96 1xBet

+9.12%

Model: 33.8%

PEC Zwolle vs Excelsior

good

Sun 12th, 13:30

FT Result

Away

3.45 Fair: 3.14 1xBet

+9.87%

Model: 31.9%

Double Chance

Draw Away

1.80 Fair: 1.71 Bet365

+5.26%

Model: 58.4%

BTTS

No

2.25 Fair: 2.14 Bet365

+5.14%

Model: 46.7%

HT Result

Away

3.75 Fair: 3.65 Bet365

+2.74%

Model: 27.4%

NEC Nijmegen vs Feyenoord

good

Sun 12th, 13:30

FT Result

Home

2.74 Fair: 2.08 1xBet

+31.73%

Model: 48%

HT Result

Home

3.00 Fair: 2.60 Bet365

+15.38%

Model: 38.5%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.53 Fair: 1.43 Bet365

+6.99%

Model: 70.2%

AZ vs SC Heerenveen

good

Sun 12th, 15:45

FT Result

Home

1.91 Fair: 1.56 1xBet

+22.44%

Model: 64.2%

BTTS

No

2.50 Fair: 2.15 Bet365

+16.28%

Model: 46.4%

HT Result

Home

2.37 Fair: 2.08 Bet365

+13.94%

Model: 48.1%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.25 Fair: 1.19 Bet365

+5.04%

Model: 84.2%

What is a Value Bet?

A value bet exists when the bookmaker's odds are higher than our calculated fair odds (implied from probability). This means the bookmaker is offering better odds than the true probability suggests.

How We Calculate Value

We convert our probability model's prediction into implied odds using: Fair Odds = 100 / Probability%

For example, if we give a 50% chance to an outcome, the fair odds would be 2.00. If the bookmaker offers 2.20, that's a +10% value bet.

Value % Explained

0-5% - Small value edge
5-10% - Good value
10%+ - Strong value

More Value Bets

Looking for value bets across all leagues? Visit our main Value Bets page for comprehensive coverage.