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Liga Portugal Value Bets

Find EV Betting Opportunities

Value Bets for Liga Portugal

Find value bets for Liga Portugal fixtures. We compare our probability model against bookmaker odds to identify bets where the odds are higher than our implied probability suggests.

Santa Clara vs Rio Ave

high

Sun 6th, 15:30

FT Result

Away

4.90 Fair: 3.27 Betfair Exchange

+49.85%

Model: 30.6%

BTTS

Yes

2.12 Fair: 1.93 Betfair Exchange

+9.84%

Model: 51.9%

Double Chance

Draw Away

1.90 Fair: 1.74 Bet365

+9.2%

Model: 57.5%

HT Result

Draw

2.13 Fair: 2.06 Pinnacle

+3.4%

Model: 48.5%

Vitória Guimarães vs Casa Pia

high

Sun 6th, 18:00

FT Result

Away

7.40 Fair: 4.62 Betfair Exchange

+60.17%

Model: 21.7%

Double Chance

Draw Away

2.62 Fair: 2.15 1xBet

+21.86%

Model: 46.6%

HT Result

Away

7.24 Fair: 6.00 Pinnacle

+20.67%

Model: 16.7%

HT Result

Draw

2.39 Fair: 2.18 Pinnacle

+9.63%

Model: 45.9%

BTTS

Yes

2.18 Fair: 2.03 Betfair Exchange

+7.39%

Model: 49.2%

FT Result

Draw

4.30 Fair: 4.02 Betfair Exchange

+6.97%

Model: 24.9%

Gil Vicente vs Academico Viseu

high

Sun 6th, 20:30

FT Result

Home

2.36 Fair: 1.95 Betfair Exchange

+21.03%

Model: 51.2%

HT Result

Home

3.03 Fair: 2.72 Pinnacle

+11.4%

Model: 36.8%

BTTS

Yes

2.16 Fair: 2.07 Betfair Exchange

+4.35%

Model: 48.3%

Double Chance

Home Away

1.40 Fair: 1.37 1xBet

+2.19%

Model: 73%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.30 Fair: 1.28 1xBet

+1.56%

Model: 78.3%

Estoril vs Arouca

high

Mon 7th, 20:15

HT Result

Draw

2.30 Fair: 2.19 Pinnacle

+5.02%

Model: 45.8%

FT Result

Away

3.20 Fair: 3.07 Betfair Exchange

+4.23%

Model: 32.6%

Moreirense vs Benfica

high

Wed 9th, 20:45

FT Result

Home

20.00 Fair: 8.98 1xBet

+122.72%

Model: 11.1%

FT Result

Draw

8.65 Fair: 5.25 1xBet

+64.76%

Model: 19.1%

HT Result

Home

11.50 Fair: 9.81 1xBet

+17.23%

Model: 10.2%

Double Chance

Home Draw

3.70 Fair: 3.31 Kambi Group

+11.78%

Model: 30.2%

HT Result

Draw

3.11 Fair: 2.95 Pinnacle

+5.42%

Model: 33.9%

Estrela Amadora vs Sporting Braga

high

Thu 10th, 20:15

HT Result

Away

2.55 Fair: 2.48 Pinnacle

+2.82%

Model: 40.3%

HT Result

Draw

2.22 Fair: 2.21 Pinnacle

+0.45%

Model: 45.3%

FT Result

Home

4.13 Fair: 4.12 1xBet

+0.24%

Model: 24.3%

Nacional vs Alverca

high

Sat 12th, 15:30

FT Result

Home

2.73 Fair: 2.18 Pinnacle

+25.23%

Model: 45.9%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.50 Fair: 1.40 1xBet

+7.14%

Model: 71.3%

HT Result

Draw

2.20 Fair: 2.07 Pinnacle

+6.28%

Model: 48.4%

BTTS

Yes

1.75 Fair: 1.71 Betano

+2.34%

Model: 58.3%

Double Chance

Home Away

1.36 Fair: 1.34 1xBet

+1.49%

Model: 74.6%

Academico Viseu vs Vitória Guimarães

high

Sat 12th, 20:30

FT Result

Home

3.25 Fair: 2.58 Kambi Group

+25.97%

Model: 38.7%

What is a Value Bet?

A value bet exists when the bookmaker's odds are higher than our calculated fair odds (implied from probability). This means the bookmaker is offering better odds than the true probability suggests.

How We Calculate Value

We convert our probability model's prediction into implied odds using: Fair Odds = 100 / Probability%

For example, if we give a 50% chance to an outcome, the fair odds would be 2.00. If the bookmaker offers 2.20, that's a +10% value bet.

Value % Explained

0-5% - Small value edge
5-10% - Good value
10%+ - Strong value

More Value Bets

Looking for value bets across all leagues? Visit our main Value Bets page for comprehensive coverage.