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La Liga Value Bets

Find EV Betting Opportunities

Value Bets for La Liga

Find value bets for La Liga fixtures. We compare our probability model against bookmaker odds to identify bets where the odds are higher than our implied probability suggests.

Levante vs Athletic Club

high

Wed 21st, 19:00

FT Result

Home

3.73 Fair: 3.13 Pinnacle

+19.17%

Model: 32%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.73 Fair: 1.71 1xBet

+1.17%

Model: 58.6%

Deportivo Alavés vs Málaga

high

Fri 23rd, 20:00

FT Result

Away

5.50 Fair: 3.00 Betfair Exchange

+83.33%

Model: 33.4%

HT Result

Away

5.30 Fair: 4.05 1xBet

+30.86%

Model: 24.7%

Double Chance

Draw Away

2.08 Fair: 1.70 1xBet

+22.35%

Model: 58.9%

BTTS

Yes

2.00 Fair: 1.73 Betfair Exchange

+15.61%

Model: 57.7%

HT Result

Draw

2.33 Fair: 2.11 Pinnacle

+10.43%

Model: 47.3%

Rayo Vallecano vs Elche

high

Sat 24th, 13:00

BTTS

No

2.12 Fair: 1.83 Betfair Exchange

+15.85%

Model: 54.6%

FT Result

Draw

3.95 Fair: 3.58 Betfair Exchange

+10.34%

Model: 27.9%

FT Result

Away

4.80 Fair: 4.54 Betfair Exchange

+5.73%

Model: 22.1%

Double Chance

Draw Away

2.11 Fair: 2.00 1xBet

+5.5%

Model: 50%

HT Result

Draw

2.40 Fair: 2.39 Pinnacle

+0.42%

Model: 41.9%

Racing Santander vs Espanyol

high

Sat 24th, 15:15

FT Result

Home

2.46 Fair: 2.22 Betfair Exchange

+10.81%

Model: 45.1%

BTTS

No

2.50 Fair: 2.38 Betfair Exchange

+5.04%

Model: 42.1%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.46 Fair: 1.39 1xBet

+5.04%

Model: 71.9%

FT Result

Draw

3.76 Fair: 3.73 1xBet

+0.8%

Model: 26.8%

Valencia vs Villarreal

high

Sat 24th, 17:30

FT Result

Home

3.45 Fair: 2.96 1xBet

+16.55%

Model: 33.8%

HT Result

Home

3.85 Fair: 3.48 Pinnacle

+10.63%

Model: 28.8%

HT Result

Draw

2.39 Fair: 2.21 Pinnacle

+8.14%

Model: 45.4%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.77 Fair: 1.66 1xBet

+6.63%

Model: 60.3%

BTTS

No

2.38 Fair: 2.29 Betfair Exchange

+3.93%

Model: 43.6%

Atlético de Madrid vs Deportivo A Coruña

high

Sat 24th, 20:00

FT Result

Away

12.00 Fair: 5.99 Betfair Exchange

+100.33%

Model: 16.7%

HT Result

Away

9.42 Fair: 5.50 Pinnacle

+71.27%

Model: 18.2%

Double Chance

Draw Away

3.78 Fair: 2.51 1xBet

+50.6%

Model: 39.8%

FT Result

Draw

6.48 Fair: 4.32 1xBet

+50%

Model: 23.1%

HT Result

Draw

2.83 Fair: 2.40 Pinnacle

+17.92%

Model: 41.7%

BTTS

Yes

2.16 Fair: 2.06 Betfair Exchange

+4.85%

Model: 48.6%

Athletic Club vs Getafe

high

Sun 25th, 13:00

FT Result

Draw

4.09 Fair: 4.03 Pinnacle

+1.49%

Model: 24.8%

FT Result

Home

1.66 Fair: 1.65 1xBet

+0.61%

Model: 60.5%

Celta de Vigo vs Real Betis

high

Sun 25th, 15:15

FT Result

Away

2.67 Fair: 2.19 1xBet

+21.92%

Model: 45.6%

Double Chance

Draw Away

1.50 Fair: 1.40 1xBet

+7.14%

Model: 71.2%

HT Result

Away

3.20 Fair: 2.99 Pinnacle

+7.02%

Model: 33.5%

BTTS

No

2.30 Fair: 2.26 Betfair Exchange

+1.77%

Model: 44.3%

Real Sociedad vs Levante

high

Sun 25th, 17:30

FT Result

Away

4.75 Fair: 4.10 Bet365

+15.85%

Model: 24.4%

BTTS

No

2.38 Fair: 2.12 Betfair Exchange

+12.26%

Model: 47.2%

HT Result

Draw

2.55 Fair: 2.28 Pinnacle

+11.84%

Model: 43.9%

Double Chance

Draw Away

2.19 Fair: 2.00 1xBet

+9.5%

Model: 50.1%

FT Result

Draw

4.26 Fair: 3.90 1xBet

+9.23%

Model: 25.7%

FC Barcelona vs Real Madrid

high

Sun 25th, 20:00

BTTS

No

4.00 Fair: 3.24 Betfair Exchange

+23.46%

Model: 30.9%

FT Result

Draw

6.20 Fair: 5.60 Betfair Exchange

+10.71%

Model: 17.9%

HT Result

Home

1.96 Fair: 1.87 Pinnacle

+4.81%

Model: 53.5%

Sevilla vs Osasuna

high

Mon 26th, 20:00

FT Result

Away

4.40 Fair: 3.74 Betfair Exchange

+17.65%

Model: 26.7%

BTTS

Yes

2.02 Fair: 1.80 Betfair Exchange

+12.22%

Model: 55.4%

HT Result

Draw

2.19 Fair: 2.10 Pinnacle

+4.29%

Model: 47.7%

Villarreal vs Espanyol

high

Fri 30th, 20:00

FT Result

Away

5.70 Fair: 4.69 1xBet

+21.54%

Model: 21.3%

FT Result

Draw

4.62 Fair: 4.12 1xBet

+12.14%

Model: 24.3%

HT Result

Away

5.50 Fair: 4.92 Bet365

+11.79%

Model: 20.3%

Double Chance

Draw Away

2.37 Fair: 2.19 Bet365

+8.22%

Model: 45.6%

HT Result

Draw

2.50 Fair: 2.46 Bet365

+1.63%

Model: 40.7%

Levante vs Atlético de Madrid

high

Sat 31st, 13:00

FT Result

Home

5.45 Fair: 4.25 1xBet

+28.24%

Model: 23.5%

FT Result

Draw

4.66 Fair: 4.02 Pinnacle

+15.92%

Model: 24.9%

Double Chance

Home Draw

2.30 Fair: 2.07 Bet365

+11.11%

Model: 48.4%

HT Result

Draw

2.60 Fair: 2.39 Bet365

+8.79%

Model: 41.9%

HT Result

Home

5.00 Fair: 4.67 Bet365

+7.07%

Model: 21.4%

Rayo Vallecano vs Celta de Vigo

high

Sat 31st, 15:15

FT Result

Draw

3.51 Fair: 3.02 1xBet

+16.23%

Model: 33.1%

BTTS

No

1.95 Fair: 1.72 Bet365

+13.37%

Model: 58.2%

HT Result

Draw

2.10 Fair: 2.04 Bet365

+2.94%

Model: 49.1%

Real Betis vs Málaga

high

Sat 31st, 17:30

FT Result

Away

7.40 Fair: 4.18 Betfair Exchange

+77.03%

Model: 24%

HT Result

Away

6.00 Fair: 3.85 Bet365

+55.84%

Model: 26%

Double Chance

Draw Away

2.75 Fair: 2.10 Bet365

+30.95%

Model: 47.7%

FT Result

Draw

5.24 Fair: 4.21 1xBet

+24.47%

Model: 23.8%

HT Result

Draw

2.62 Fair: 2.42 Bet365

+8.26%

Model: 41.3%

FC Barcelona vs Deportivo Alavés

high

Sat 31st, 20:00

FT Result

Draw

10.40 Fair: 7.02 1xBet

+48.15%

Model: 14.3%

BTTS

No

2.00 Fair: 1.59 Kambi Group

+25.79%

Model: 62.8%

Double Chance

Draw Away

6.50 Fair: 5.18 Bet365

+25.48%

Model: 19.3%

FT Result

Away

24.00 Fair: 19.80 1xBet

+21.21%

Model: 5.1%

Getafe vs Sevilla

high

Sun 1st, 13:00

FT Result

Home

3.00 Fair: 2.72 Betfair Exchange

+10.29%

Model: 36.8%

BTTS

Yes

2.20 Fair: 2.14 Bet365

+2.8%

Model: 46.8%

Racing Santander vs Real Madrid

high

Sun 1st, 15:15

FT Result

Home

10.00 Fair: 4.77 Betfair Exchange

+109.64%

Model: 21%

HT Result

Home

7.00 Fair: 4.26 Bet365

+64.32%

Model: 23.5%

Double Chance

Home Draw

3.75 Fair: 2.33 Bet365

+60.94%

Model: 43%

FT Result

Draw

7.00 Fair: 4.54 FanDuel

+54.19%

Model: 22%

HT Result

Draw

3.20 Fair: 2.68 Bet365

+19.4%

Model: 37.3%

Elche vs Valencia

high

Sun 1st, 17:30

FT Result

Away

2.95 Fair: 2.69 1xBet

+9.67%

Model: 37.2%

Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad

high

Sun 1st, 20:00

FT Result

Away

3.82 Fair: 3.75 Pinnacle

+1.87%

Model: 26.7%

Deportivo A Coruña vs Osasuna

high

Mon 2nd, 20:00

FT Result

Home

2.34 Fair: 1.93 Betfair Exchange

+21.24%

Model: 51.7%

HT Result

Home

3.00 Fair: 2.51 Bet365

+19.52%

Model: 39.8%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.33 Fair: 1.29 Bet365

+3.1%

Model: 77.3%

Double Chance

Home Away

1.36 Fair: 1.34 Bet365

+1.49%

Model: 74.4%

What is a Value Bet?

A value bet exists when the bookmaker's odds are higher than our calculated fair odds (implied from probability). This means the bookmaker is offering better odds than the true probability suggests.

How We Calculate Value

We convert our probability model's prediction into implied odds using: Fair Odds = 100 / Probability%

For example, if we give a 50% chance to an outcome, the fair odds would be 2.00. If the bookmaker offers 2.20, that's a +10% value bet.

Value % Explained

0-5% - Small value edge
5-10% - Good value
10%+ - Strong value

More Value Bets

Looking for value bets across all leagues? Visit our main Value Bets page for comprehensive coverage.