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World Cup Value Bets

Find EV Betting Opportunities

Value Bets for World Cup

Find value bets for World Cup fixtures. We compare our probability model against bookmaker odds to identify bets where the odds are higher than our implied probability suggests.

Mexico vs South Africa

high

Thu 11th, 20:00

FT Result

Away

8.80 Fair: 3.07 Betfair Exchange

+186.64%

Model: 32.6%

Double Chance

Draw Away

2.62 Fair: 1.65 Bet365

+58.79%

Model: 60.6%

FT Result

Draw

4.70 Fair: 3.57 Betfair Exchange

+31.65%

Model: 28%

BTTS

Yes

2.40 Fair: 2.16 Betfair Exchange

+11.11%

Model: 46.4%

Korea Republic vs Czech Republic

high

Fri 12th, 03:00

FT Result

Draw

4.92 Fair: 3.87 1xBet

+27.13%

Model: 25.9%

FT Result

Home

2.82 Fair: 2.57 Betfair Exchange

+9.73%

Model: 39%

BTTS

Yes

1.95 Fair: 1.83 Bet365

+6.56%

Model: 54.7%

FT Result

Away

2.98 Fair: 2.84 1xBet

+4.93%

Model: 35.3%

Double Chance

Home Away

1.36 Fair: 1.35 Bet365

+0.74%

Model: 74.2%

Canada vs Bosnia and Herzegovina

high

Fri 12th, 20:00

FT Result

Away

4.70 Fair: 3.43 Betfair Exchange

+37.03%

Model: 29.2%

Double Chance

Draw Away

1.95 Fair: 1.75 Bet365

+11.43%

Model: 57%

FT Result

Draw

3.84 Fair: 3.59 1xBet

+6.96%

Model: 27.9%

United States vs Paraguay

high

Sat 13th, 02:00

FT Result

Home

3.79 Fair: 2.36 1xBet

+60.59%

Model: 42.5%

FT Result

Draw

5.63 Fair: 3.70 1xBet

+52.16%

Model: 27.1%

FT Result

Away

4.10 Fair: 3.28 Betfair Exchange

+25%

Model: 30.5%

Double Chance

Draw Away

1.80 Fair: 1.74 Bet365

+3.45%

Model: 57.6%

Qatar vs Switzerland

high

Sat 13th, 20:00

FT Result

Home

15.00 Fair: 4.81 Betfair Exchange

+211.85%

Model: 20.8%

Double Chance

Home Draw

4.00 Fair: 2.19 Bet365

+82.65%

Model: 45.7%

FT Result

Draw

6.80 Fair: 4.02 Betfair Exchange

+69.15%

Model: 24.9%

BTTS

Yes

2.42 Fair: 2.14 Betfair Exchange

+13.08%

Model: 46.8%

Brazil vs Morocco

high

Sat 13th, 23:00

FT Result

Away

6.20 Fair: 2.76 Betfair Exchange

+124.64%

Model: 36.3%

Double Chance

Draw Away

2.30 Fair: 1.61 Bet365

+42.86%

Model: 62.1%

FT Result

Draw

5.07 Fair: 3.87 1xBet

+31.01%

Model: 25.9%

BTTS

Yes

2.08 Fair: 1.84 Betfair Exchange

+13.04%

Model: 54.4%

Haiti vs Scotland

high

Sun 14th, 02:00

FT Result

Home

7.60 Fair: 2.82 Betfair Exchange

+169.5%

Model: 35.5%

Double Chance

Home Draw

2.62 Fair: 1.71 Bet365

+53.22%

Model: 58.5%

BTTS

Yes

2.22 Fair: 1.58 Betfair Exchange

+40.51%

Model: 63.2%

FT Result

Draw

5.10 Fair: 4.34 Betfair Exchange

+17.51%

Model: 23.1%

Australia vs Türkiye

high

Sun 14th, 05:00

FT Result

Home

5.10 Fair: 4.39 Betfair Exchange

+16.17%

Model: 22.8%

BTTS

Yes

1.95 Fair: 1.73 Bet365

+12.72%

Model: 58%

FT Result

Away

1.83 Fair: 1.82 Betfair Exchange

+0.55%

Model: 54.8%

Germany vs Curacao

high

Sun 14th, 18:00

FT Result

Away

61.00 Fair: 7.37 FanDuel

+727.68%

Model: 13.6%

Double Chance

Draw Away

15.00 Fair: 2.86 Bet365

+424.48%

Model: 34.9%

FT Result

Draw

22.00 Fair: 4.68 Betfair Exchange

+370.09%

Model: 21.4%

BTTS

Yes

3.00 Fair: 2.30 Betfair Exchange

+30.43%

Model: 43.6%

Netherlands vs Japan

high

Sun 14th, 21:00

FT Result

Away

3.95 Fair: 3.33 Betfair Exchange

+18.62%

Model: 30.1%

Double Chance

Draw Away

1.80 Fair: 1.79 Bet365

+0.56%

Model: 56%

Côte d'Ivoire vs Ecuador

high

Mon 15th, 00:00

FT Result

Home

3.85 Fair: 2.38 Betfair Exchange

+61.76%

Model: 42%

FT Result

Draw

4.63 Fair: 3.60 1xBet

+28.61%

Model: 27.8%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.61 Fair: 1.43 Bet365

+12.59%

Model: 69.7%

BTTS

Yes

2.26 Fair: 2.12 Betfair Exchange

+6.6%

Model: 47.3%

Double Chance

Home Away

1.40 Fair: 1.38 Bet365

+1.45%

Model: 72.3%

Sweden vs Tunisia

high

Mon 15th, 03:00

FT Result

Away

4.50 Fair: 3.20 Betfair Exchange

+40.63%

Model: 31.3%

BTTS

Yes

2.04 Fair: 1.80 Betfair Exchange

+13.33%

Model: 55.6%

Double Chance

Draw Away

1.80 Fair: 1.77 Bet365

+1.69%

Model: 56.4%

Spain vs Cape Verde Islands

high

Mon 15th, 17:00

FT Result

Away

36.00 Fair: 8.81 FanDuel

+308.63%

Model: 11.4%

Double Chance

Draw Away

9.00 Fair: 3.10 Bet365

+190.32%

Model: 32.3%

FT Result

Draw

11.50 Fair: 4.78 Betfair Exchange

+140.59%

Model: 20.9%

BTTS

Yes

2.72 Fair: 2.53 Betfair Exchange

+7.51%

Model: 39.6%

What is a Value Bet?

A value bet exists when the bookmaker's odds are higher than our calculated fair odds (implied from probability). This means the bookmaker is offering better odds than the true probability suggests.

How We Calculate Value

We convert our probability model's prediction into implied odds using: Fair Odds = 100 / Probability%

For example, if we give a 50% chance to an outcome, the fair odds would be 2.00. If the bookmaker offers 2.20, that's a +10% value bet.

Value % Explained

0-5% - Small value edge
5-10% - Good value
10%+ - Strong value

More Value Bets

Looking for value bets across all leagues? Visit our main Value Bets page for comprehensive coverage.