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Serie A Value Bets

Find EV Betting Opportunities

Value Bets for Serie A

Find value bets for Serie A fixtures. We compare our probability model against bookmaker odds to identify bets where the odds are higher than our implied probability suggests.

Torino vs Monza

good

Fri 23rd, 19:45

FT Result

Away

3.55 Fair: 3.18 Betfair Exchange

+11.64%

Model: 31.4%

HT Result

Away

4.10 Fair: 3.90 Pinnacle

+5.13%

Model: 25.7%

HT Result

Draw

2.29 Fair: 2.23 Pinnacle

+2.69%

Model: 44.8%

Double Chance

Draw Away

1.75 Fair: 1.74 1xBet

+0.57%

Model: 57.4%

BTTS

Yes

1.81 Fair: 1.80 Betfair Exchange

+0.56%

Model: 55.5%

Como vs Sassuolo

good

Sat 24th, 14:00

BTTS

No

2.46 Fair: 1.99 FanDuel

+23.62%

Model: 50.3%

HT Result

Draw

2.81 Fair: 2.56 Pinnacle

+9.77%

Model: 39%

FT Result

Draw

4.80 Fair: 4.54 Betfair Exchange

+5.73%

Model: 22%

Cagliari vs Bologna

good

Sat 24th, 14:00

HT Result

Home

4.05 Fair: 3.45 1xBet

+17.39%

Model: 29%

FT Result

Home

3.35 Fair: 2.97 1xBet

+12.79%

Model: 33.7%

BTTS

No

2.02 Fair: 1.94 Betfair Exchange

+4.12%

Model: 51.6%

Double Chance

Home Away

1.42 Fair: 1.41 1xBet

+0.71%

Model: 70.8%

good

Sat 24th, 17:00

FT Result

Home

2.95 Fair: 2.31 Betano

+27.71%

Model: 43.2%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.57 Fair: 1.45 1xBet

+8.28%

Model: 68.9%

Double Chance

Home Away

1.36 Fair: 1.34 Bet365

+1.49%

Model: 74.4%

good

Sat 24th, 19:45

FT Result

Away

9.40 Fair: 5.85 Betfair Exchange

+60.68%

Model: 17.1%

Double Chance

Draw Away

2.92 Fair: 2.62 1xBet

+11.45%

Model: 38.2%

HT Result

Home

2.02 Fair: 1.87 Pinnacle

+8.02%

Model: 53.4%

BTTS

Yes

2.18 Fair: 2.07 Betfair Exchange

+5.31%

Model: 48.4%

Inter vs Fiorentina

good

Sun 25th, 11:30

FT Result

Away

9.00 Fair: 6.95 Bet365

+29.5%

Model: 14.4%

FT Result

Draw

5.90 Fair: 5.19 Betfair Exchange

+13.68%

Model: 19.3%

HT Result

Draw

2.97 Fair: 2.67 Pinnacle

+11.24%

Model: 37.5%

Double Chance

Draw Away

3.25 Fair: 2.97 Bet365

+9.43%

Model: 33.7%

Atalanta vs Frosinone

good

Sun 25th, 14:00

BTTS

No

2.92 Fair: 2.38 FanDuel

+22.69%

Model: 41.9%

HT Result

Home

2.34 Fair: 1.99 Pinnacle

+17.59%

Model: 50.3%

FT Result

Away

4.37 Fair: 3.97 1xBet

+10.08%

Model: 25.2%

Double Chance

Draw Away

2.11 Fair: 2.10 1xBet

+0.48%

Model: 47.6%

Genoa vs Venezia

good

Sun 25th, 14:00

FT Result

Away

3.89 Fair: 3.27 Pinnacle

+18.96%

Model: 30.6%

HT Result

Away

4.40 Fair: 3.76 1xBet

+17.02%

Model: 26.6%

Double Chance

Home Away

1.36 Fair: 1.33 1xBet

+2.26%

Model: 75%

BTTS

Yes

1.82 Fair: 1.79 Betfair Exchange

+1.68%

Model: 56%

Lecce vs Juventus

good

Sun 25th, 17:00

FT Result

Home

8.60 Fair: 5.79 Betfair Exchange

+48.53%

Model: 17.3%

HT Result

Home

7.77 Fair: 6.40 Pinnacle

+21.41%

Model: 15.6%

Double Chance

Home Draw

2.77 Fair: 2.37 1xBet

+16.88%

Model: 42.2%

FT Result

Draw

4.60 Fair: 4.01 Betfair Exchange

+14.71%

Model: 24.9%

HT Result

Draw

2.53 Fair: 2.49 Pinnacle

+1.61%

Model: 40.2%

Udinese vs AC Milan

good

Sun 25th, 19:45

FT Result

Home

6.00 Fair: 4.60 Bet365

+30.43%

Model: 21.7%

HT Result

Home

5.50 Fair: 4.82 Bet365

+14.11%

Model: 20.8%

Double Chance

Home Draw

2.29 Fair: 2.09 1xBet

+9.57%

Model: 48%

FT Result

Draw

4.17 Fair: 3.81 1xBet

+9.45%

Model: 26.2%

BTTS

No

2.02 Fair: 1.86 Betfair Exchange

+8.6%

Model: 53.9%

HT Result

Draw

2.37 Fair: 2.33 Pinnacle

+1.72%

Model: 43%

Sassuolo vs Lazio

good

Tue 27th, 17:30

HT Result

Draw

2.36 Fair: 2.17 Pinnacle

+8.76%

Model: 46%

FT Result

Home

2.96 Fair: 2.94 1xBet

+0.68%

Model: 34%

Roma vs Cagliari

good

Tue 27th, 19:45

FT Result

Away

9.84 Fair: 7.84 Pinnacle

+25.51%

Model: 12.8%

HT Result

Away

8.66 Fair: 7.96 Pinnacle

+8.79%

Model: 12.6%

Double Chance

Draw Away

3.22 Fair: 3.07 1xBet

+4.89%

Model: 32.5%

HT Result

Draw

2.65 Fair: 2.54 Pinnacle

+4.33%

Model: 39.3%

FT Result

Draw

5.20 Fair: 5.06 1xBet

+2.77%

Model: 19.8%

good

Tue 27th, 19:45

FT Result

Home

4.89 Fair: 3.63 Pinnacle

+34.71%

Model: 27.5%

HT Result

Home

4.98 Fair: 4.20 Pinnacle

+18.57%

Model: 23.8%

Double Chance

Home Draw

2.08 Fair: 1.93 1xBet

+7.77%

Model: 51.9%

HT Result

Draw

2.42 Fair: 2.39 Pinnacle

+1.26%

Model: 41.9%

Parma vs Udinese

good

Wed 28th, 17:30

FT Result

Home

3.13 Fair: 2.75 1xBet

+13.82%

Model: 36.4%

HT Result

Home

3.60 Fair: 3.45 Bet365

+4.35%

Model: 29%

Venezia vs Inter

good

Wed 28th, 17:30

FT Result

Home

8.55 Fair: 3.52 1xBet

+142.9%

Model: 28.4%

HT Result

Home

6.50 Fair: 3.62 Bet365

+79.56%

Model: 27.7%

Double Chance

Home Draw

3.25 Fair: 1.91 Bet365

+70.16%

Model: 52.3%

FT Result

Draw

6.28 Fair: 4.19 1xBet

+49.88%

Model: 23.9%

HT Result

Draw

3.00 Fair: 2.51 Bet365

+19.52%

Model: 39.9%

BTTS

No

2.37 Fair: 2.22 Bet365

+6.76%

Model: 45.1%

AC Milan vs Bologna

good

Wed 28th, 17:30

FT Result

Away

5.71 Fair: 4.29 1xBet

+33.1%

Model: 23.3%

Double Chance

Draw Away

2.30 Fair: 2.08 Bet365

+10.58%

Model: 48.1%

FT Result

Draw

4.27 Fair: 4.03 1xBet

+5.96%

Model: 24.8%

Genoa vs Juventus

good

Wed 28th, 19:45

FT Result

Home

5.61 Fair: 3.90 1xBet

+43.85%

Model: 25.6%

Double Chance

Home Draw

2.20 Fair: 1.98 Bet365

+11.11%

Model: 50.6%

HT Result

Home

6.00 Fair: 5.42 Bet365

+10.7%

Model: 18.4%

BTTS

Yes

2.00 Fair: 1.86 Bet365

+7.53%

Model: 53.7%

Monza vs Napoli

good

Wed 28th, 19:45

FT Result

Home

4.01 Fair: 3.03 1xBet

+32.34%

Model: 33.1%

HT Result

Home

4.00 Fair: 3.29 Bet365

+21.58%

Model: 30.4%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.90 Fair: 1.69 Bet365

+12.43%

Model: 59.2%

FT Result

Draw

3.91 Fair: 3.82 1xBet

+2.36%

Model: 26.2%

Frosinone vs Lecce

good

Thu 29th, 17:30

BTTS

No

2.45 Fair: 2.19 Kambi Group

+11.87%

Model: 45.7%

FT Result

Home

2.00 Fair: 1.84 Betano

+8.7%

Model: 54.2%

Fiorentina vs Atalanta

good

Thu 29th, 19:45

FT Result

Home

2.39 Fair: 2.21 1xBet

+8.14%

Model: 45.2%

HT Result

Home

2.87 Fair: 2.70 Bet365

+6.3%

Model: 37%

BTTS

No

2.28 Fair: 2.21 Kambi Group

+3.17%

Model: 45.3%

What is a Value Bet?

A value bet exists when the bookmaker's odds are higher than our calculated fair odds (implied from probability). This means the bookmaker is offering better odds than the true probability suggests.

How We Calculate Value

We convert our probability model's prediction into implied odds using: Fair Odds = 100 / Probability%

For example, if we give a 50% chance to an outcome, the fair odds would be 2.00. If the bookmaker offers 2.20, that's a +10% value bet.

Value % Explained

0-5% - Small value edge
5-10% - Good value
10%+ - Strong value

More Value Bets

Looking for value bets across all leagues? Visit our main Value Bets page for comprehensive coverage.