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Serie A Value Bets

Find EV Betting Opportunities

Value Bets for Serie A

Find value bets for Serie A fixtures. We compare our probability model against bookmaker odds to identify bets where the odds are higher than our implied probability suggests.

Fiorentina vs Atalanta

good

Fri 22nd, 19:45

BTTS

No

2.50 Fair: 2.02 Betfair Exchange

+23.76%

Model: 49.4%

HT Result

Draw

2.42 Fair: 2.26 Pinnacle

+7.08%

Model: 44.3%

FT Result

Home

2.90 Fair: 2.80 Betfair Exchange

+3.57%

Model: 35.7%

FT Result

Draw

3.65 Fair: 3.58 Betfair Exchange

+1.96%

Model: 27.9%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.58 Fair: 1.57 1xBet

+0.64%

Model: 63.6%

Bologna vs Inter

good

Sat 23rd, 17:00

BTTS

No

2.66 Fair: 1.89 Betfair Exchange

+40.74%

Model: 52.8%

FT Result

Away

2.36 Fair: 1.83 1xBet

+28.96%

Model: 54.5%

Double Chance

Draw Away

1.45 Fair: 1.25 1xBet

+16%

Model: 79.9%

HT Result

Away

2.90 Fair: 2.56 Pinnacle

+13.28%

Model: 39%

HT Result

Draw

2.55 Fair: 2.40 Pinnacle

+6.25%

Model: 41.7%

good

Sat 23rd, 19:45

FT Result

Away

7.00 Fair: 4.91 Betfair Exchange

+42.57%

Model: 20.4%

HT Result

Away

6.49 Fair: 4.69 Pinnacle

+38.38%

Model: 21.3%

Double Chance

Draw Away

2.56 Fair: 2.16 1xBet

+18.52%

Model: 46.3%

FT Result

Draw

4.50 Fair: 3.85 Betfair Exchange

+16.88%

Model: 26%

BTTS

No

1.99 Fair: 1.77 Betfair Exchange

+12.43%

Model: 56.7%

HT Result

Draw

2.50 Fair: 2.24 Pinnacle

+11.61%

Model: 44.6%

Parma vs Sassuolo

good

Sun 24th, 14:00

BTTS

No

2.20 Fair: 1.94 Betfair Exchange

+13.4%

Model: 51.6%

HT Result

Draw

2.28 Fair: 2.09 Pinnacle

+9.09%

Model: 47.8%

FT Result

Away

2.72 Fair: 2.60 1xBet

+4.62%

Model: 38.4%

Napoli vs Udinese

good

Sun 24th, 17:00

FT Result

Away

7.50 Fair: 4.89 Bet365

+53.37%

Model: 20.5%

HT Result

Away

7.26 Fair: 5.89 Pinnacle

+23.26%

Model: 17%

BTTS

Yes

2.10 Fair: 1.81 Betfair Exchange

+16.02%

Model: 55.3%

Double Chance

Draw Away

2.67 Fair: 2.31 1xBet

+15.58%

Model: 43.2%

FT Result

Draw

4.50 Fair: 4.39 1xBet

+2.51%

Model: 22.8%

HT Result

Draw

2.46 Fair: 2.44 Pinnacle

+0.82%

Model: 41%

AC Milan vs Cagliari

good

Sun 24th, 19:45

FT Result

Away

13.00 Fair: 6.63 Betfair Exchange

+96.08%

Model: 15.1%

HT Result

Away

10.02 Fair: 6.77 Pinnacle

+48.01%

Model: 14.8%

FT Result

Draw

5.90 Fair: 4.52 Betfair Exchange

+30.53%

Model: 22.1%

Double Chance

Draw Away

3.50 Fair: 2.69 WilliamHill

+30.11%

Model: 37.2%

HT Result

Draw

2.74 Fair: 2.41 Pinnacle

+13.69%

Model: 41.6%

BTTS

Yes

2.38 Fair: 2.18 Betfair Exchange

+9.17%

Model: 46%

Torino vs Juventus

good

Sun 24th, 19:45

FT Result

Home

9.20 Fair: 4.13 Betfair Exchange

+122.76%

Model: 24.2%

Double Chance

Home Draw

3.01 Fair: 1.99 1xBet

+51.26%

Model: 50.2%

HT Result

Home

7.75 Fair: 5.37 Pinnacle

+44.32%

Model: 18.6%

FT Result

Draw

5.10 Fair: 3.84 Betfair Exchange

+32.81%

Model: 26%

HT Result

Draw

2.60 Fair: 2.27 Pinnacle

+14.54%

Model: 44.2%

BTTS

Yes

2.12 Fair: 1.91 Betfair Exchange

+10.99%

Model: 52.3%

Hellas Verona vs Roma

good

Sun 24th, 19:45

FT Result

Home

11.50 Fair: 5.93 Betfair Exchange

+93.93%

Model: 16.9%

Double Chance

Home Draw

3.50 Fair: 2.46 1xBet

+42.28%

Model: 40.6%

HT Result

Home

9.71 Fair: 6.99 Pinnacle

+38.91%

Model: 14.3%

FT Result

Draw

5.60 Fair: 4.21 Betfair Exchange

+33.02%

Model: 23.8%

HT Result

Draw

2.61 Fair: 2.28 Pinnacle

+14.47%

Model: 43.9%

BTTS

Yes

2.40 Fair: 2.33 Betfair Exchange

+3%

Model: 43%

Cremonese vs Como

good

Sun 24th, 19:45

BTTS

No

2.18 Fair: 1.83 Betfair Exchange

+19.13%

Model: 54.5%

FT Result

Draw

4.30 Fair: 3.97 Betfair Exchange

+8.31%

Model: 25.2%

HT Result

Draw

2.50 Fair: 2.36 Pinnacle

+5.93%

Model: 42.5%

HT Result

Home

5.50 Fair: 5.27 Bet365

+4.36%

Model: 19%

Double Chance

Home Draw

2.31 Fair: 2.27 1xBet

+1.76%

Model: 44%

FT Result

Home

5.40 Fair: 5.33 Betfair Exchange

+1.31%

Model: 18.8%

good

Sun 24th, 19:45

FT Result

Away

5.70 Fair: 2.50 Betfair Exchange

+128%

Model: 40%

HT Result

Away

6.00 Fair: 3.52 Bet365

+70.45%

Model: 28.4%

Double Chance

Draw Away

2.24 Fair: 1.45 1xBet

+54.48%

Model: 69.1%

FT Result

Draw

3.88 Fair: 3.44 1xBet

+12.79%

Model: 29.1%

BTTS

Yes

2.30 Fair: 2.18 Betfair Exchange

+5.5%

Model: 45.9%

HT Result

Draw

2.15 Fair: 2.12 Kambi Group

+1.42%

Model: 47.2%

What is a Value Bet?

A value bet exists when the bookmaker's odds are higher than our calculated fair odds (implied from probability). This means the bookmaker is offering better odds than the true probability suggests.

How We Calculate Value

We convert our probability model's prediction into implied odds using: Fair Odds = 100 / Probability%

For example, if we give a 50% chance to an outcome, the fair odds would be 2.00. If the bookmaker offers 2.20, that's a +10% value bet.

Value % Explained

0-5% - Small value edge
5-10% - Good value
10%+ - Strong value

More Value Bets

Looking for value bets across all leagues? Visit our main Value Bets page for comprehensive coverage.