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Serie A Value Bets

Find EV Betting Opportunities

Value Bets for Serie A

Find value bets for Serie A fixtures. We compare our probability model against bookmaker odds to identify bets where the odds are higher than our implied probability suggests.

Sassuolo vs Cagliari

good

Sat 4th, 14:00

FT Result

Away

4.50 Fair: 3.92 Betfair Exchange

+14.8%

Model: 25.5%

HT Result

Away

5.10 Fair: 4.81 1xBet

+6.03%

Model: 20.8%

Double Chance

Home Away

1.41 Fair: 1.37 1xBet

+2.92%

Model: 73%

BTTS

No

1.99 Fair: 1.97 Betfair Exchange

+1.02%

Model: 50.7%

FT Result

Home

2.11 Fair: 2.10 1xBet

+0.48%

Model: 47.5%

Hellas Verona vs Fiorentina

good

Sat 4th, 17:00

FT Result

Away

2.02 Fair: 1.80 1xBet

+12.22%

Model: 55.6%

BTTS

Yes

2.02 Fair: 1.95 Betfair Exchange

+3.59%

Model: 51.3%

HT Result

Away

2.71 Fair: 2.64 Pinnacle

+2.65%

Model: 37.9%

Double Chance

Home Away

1.34 Fair: 1.31 1xBet

+2.29%

Model: 76.6%

Double Chance

Draw Away

1.27 Fair: 1.26 1xBet

+0.79%

Model: 79.1%

good

Sat 4th, 19:45

HT Result

Away

5.69 Fair: 4.74 Pinnacle

+20.04%

Model: 21.1%

FT Result

Away

5.30 Fair: 4.52 Betfair Exchange

+17.26%

Model: 22.1%

BTTS

No

1.83 Fair: 1.76 Betfair Exchange

+3.98%

Model: 57%

Double Chance

Draw Away

2.03 Fair: 1.97 1xBet

+3.05%

Model: 50.7%

FT Result

Draw

3.56 Fair: 3.49 1xBet

+2.01%

Model: 28.6%

HT Result

Draw

2.17 Fair: 2.16 Pinnacle

+0.46%

Model: 46.3%

Cremonese vs Bologna

good

Sun 5th, 14:00

FT Result

Away

2.16 Fair: 1.76 1xBet

+22.73%

Model: 57%

BTTS

No

2.08 Fair: 1.82 Betfair Exchange

+14.29%

Model: 55.1%

Double Chance

Draw Away

1.33 Fair: 1.22 1xBet

+9.02%

Model: 81.6%

HT Result

Away

2.75 Fair: 2.70 Bet365

+1.85%

Model: 37%

Double Chance

Home Away

1.34 Fair: 1.33 1xBet

+0.75%

Model: 75.4%

good

Sun 5th, 17:00

FT Result

Home

3.31 Fair: 2.46 1xBet

+34.55%

Model: 40.7%

HT Result

Home

4.05 Fair: 3.23 1xBet

+25.39%

Model: 31%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.56 Fair: 1.48 1xBet

+5.41%

Model: 67.4%

Double Chance

Home Away

1.43 Fair: 1.36 1xBet

+5.15%

Model: 73.3%

BTTS

Yes

1.96 Fair: 1.93 Betfair Exchange

+1.55%

Model: 51.7%

good

Sun 5th, 19:45

HT Result

Away

5.95 Fair: 4.68 Pinnacle

+27.14%

Model: 21.4%

FT Result

Away

5.80 Fair: 5.15 Betfair Exchange

+12.62%

Model: 19.4%

Udinese vs Como

good

Mon 6th, 11:30

HT Result

Home

5.53 Fair: 4.36 Pinnacle

+26.83%

Model: 22.9%

FT Result

Home

5.60 Fair: 4.61 Betfair Exchange

+21.48%

Model: 21.7%

Double Chance

Home Draw

2.20 Fair: 2.13 Kambi Group

+3.29%

Model: 47%

BTTS

Yes

2.02 Fair: 2.01 Betfair Exchange

+0.5%

Model: 49.7%

HT Result

Draw

2.30 Fair: 2.29 Pinnacle

+0.44%

Model: 43.7%

Lecce vs Atalanta

good

Mon 6th, 14:00

FT Result

Home

5.10 Fair: 3.58 Betfair Exchange

+42.46%

Model: 28%

HT Result

Home

5.31 Fair: 3.80 Pinnacle

+39.74%

Model: 26.3%

Double Chance

Home Draw

2.13 Fair: 1.82 1xBet

+17.03%

Model: 55%

FT Result

Draw

3.88 Fair: 3.70 1xBet

+4.86%

Model: 27%

HT Result

Draw

2.29 Fair: 2.28 Pinnacle

+0.44%

Model: 43.8%

Juventus vs Genoa

good

Mon 6th, 17:00

HT Result

Away

8.97 Fair: 6.04 Pinnacle

+48.51%

Model: 16.6%

FT Result

Away

10.50 Fair: 9.82 Betfair Exchange

+6.92%

Model: 10.2%

FT Result

Draw

4.80 Fair: 4.58 Betfair Exchange

+4.8%

Model: 21.8%

BTTS

No

1.69 Fair: 1.63 Betfair Exchange

+3.68%

Model: 61.5%

Napoli vs AC Milan

good

Mon 6th, 19:45

FT Result

Away

3.20 Fair: 2.79 Betfair Exchange

+14.7%

Model: 35.9%

HT Result

Home

3.35 Fair: 3.10 1xBet

+8.06%

Model: 32.3%

Double Chance

Home Away

1.42 Fair: 1.39 1xBet

+2.16%

Model: 72%

HT Result

Away

3.82 Fair: 3.81 1xBet

+0.26%

Model: 26.2%

good

Fri 10th, 19:45

HT Result

Away

9.00 Fair: 6.23 Bet365

+44.46%

Model: 16.1%

FT Result

Away

10.50 Fair: 8.90 Betfair Exchange

+17.98%

Model: 11.2%

Cagliari vs Cremonese

good

Sat 11th, 14:00

FT Result

Away

3.68 Fair: 3.11 1xBet

+18.33%

Model: 32.1%

BTTS

Yes

1.95 Fair: 1.94 Bet365

+0.52%

Model: 51.7%

Torino vs Hellas Verona

good

Sat 11th, 14:00

FT Result

Away

4.55 Fair: 3.86 1xBet

+17.88%

Model: 25.9%

BTTS

Yes

2.05 Fair: 1.94 Bet365

+5.67%

Model: 51.5%

HT Result

Away

5.00 Fair: 4.93 Bet365

+1.42%

Model: 20.3%

AC Milan vs Udinese

good

Sat 11th, 17:00

FT Result

Away

9.50 Fair: 6.57 Bet365

+44.6%

Model: 15.2%

HT Result

Away

7.50 Fair: 5.46 Bet365

+37.36%

Model: 18.3%

Double Chance

Draw Away

3.25 Fair: 2.62 Bet365

+24.05%

Model: 38.2%

FT Result

Draw

5.06 Fair: 4.35 1xBet

+16.32%

Model: 23%

HT Result

Draw

2.50 Fair: 2.43 Bet365

+2.88%

Model: 41.2%

Atalanta vs Juventus

good

Sat 11th, 19:45

FT Result

Home

3.23 Fair: 2.33 1xBet

+38.63%

Model: 43%

HT Result

Home

3.50 Fair: 3.14 Bet365

+11.46%

Model: 31.9%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.61 Fair: 1.46 Bet365

+10.27%

Model: 68.4%

Genoa vs Sassuolo

good

Sun 12th, 11:30

FT Result

Away

3.66 Fair: 2.89 1xBet

+26.64%

Model: 34.6%

BTTS

Yes

1.95 Fair: 1.87 Bet365

+4.28%

Model: 53.4%

Double Chance

Draw Away

1.66 Fair: 1.62 Bet365

+2.47%

Model: 61.8%

Parma vs Napoli

good

Sun 12th, 14:00

FT Result

Home

6.00 Fair: 4.14 Betfair Exchange

+44.93%

Model: 24.1%

HT Result

Home

5.50 Fair: 4.65 Bet365

+18.28%

Model: 21.5%

Double Chance

Home Draw

2.10 Fair: 1.97 Bet365

+6.6%

Model: 50.8%

FT Result

Draw

3.80 Fair: 3.76 1xBet

+1.06%

Model: 26.6%

Bologna vs Lecce

good

Sun 12th, 17:00

HT Result

Away

6.00 Fair: 4.97 Bet365

+20.72%

Model: 20.1%

FT Result

Away

5.63 Fair: 5.53 Pinnacle

+1.81%

Model: 18.1%

good

Sun 12th, 19:45

FT Result

Home

3.22 Fair: 2.89 1xBet

+11.42%

Model: 34.6%

HT Result

Home

3.50 Fair: 3.29 Bet365

+6.38%

Model: 30.4%

BTTS

No

2.05 Fair: 2.00 Bet365

+2.5%

Model: 49.9%

Fiorentina vs Lazio

good

Mon 13th, 19:45

FT Result

Away

3.92 Fair: 3.24 1xBet

+20.99%

Model: 30.8%

Double Chance

Draw Away

1.70 Fair: 1.67 Bet365

+1.8%

Model: 60%

What is a Value Bet?

A value bet exists when the bookmaker's odds are higher than our calculated fair odds (implied from probability). This means the bookmaker is offering better odds than the true probability suggests.

How We Calculate Value

We convert our probability model's prediction into implied odds using: Fair Odds = 100 / Probability%

For example, if we give a 50% chance to an outcome, the fair odds would be 2.00. If the bookmaker offers 2.20, that's a +10% value bet.

Value % Explained

0-5% - Small value edge
5-10% - Good value
10%+ - Strong value

More Value Bets

Looking for value bets across all leagues? Visit our main Value Bets page for comprehensive coverage.