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Liga MX Value Bets

Find EV Betting Opportunities

Value Bets for Liga MX

Find value bets for Liga MX fixtures. We compare our probability model against bookmaker odds to identify bets where the odds are higher than our implied probability suggests.

Cruz Azul vs Santos Laguna

medium

Mon 7th, 00:00

BTTS

No

2.34 Fair: 1.93 Betfair Exchange

+21.24%

Model: 51.9%

FT Result

Draw

5.60 Fair: 4.70 Betfair Exchange

+19.15%

Model: 21.3%

FT Result

Away

7.80 Fair: 6.61 Betfair Exchange

+18%

Model: 15.1%

HT Result

Away

6.90 Fair: 5.95 Pinnacle

+15.97%

Model: 16.8%

HT Result

Draw

2.95 Fair: 2.61 Pinnacle

+13.03%

Model: 38.4%

Double Chance

Draw Away

3.00 Fair: 2.74 Bet365

+9.49%

Model: 36.4%

Pumas UNAM vs León

medium

Fri 11th, 04:00

FT Result

Away

3.80 Fair: 3.34 Bet365

+13.77%

Model: 29.9%

Double Chance

Draw Away

1.83 Fair: 1.80 Bet365

+1.67%

Model: 55.6%

HT Result

Draw

2.38 Fair: 2.36 Pinnacle

+0.85%

Model: 42.4%

BTTS

Yes

1.75 Fair: 1.74 Bet365

+0.57%

Model: 57.6%

Necaxa vs Puebla

medium

Sat 12th, 02:00

HT Result

Draw

2.45 Fair: 2.27 Pinnacle

+7.93%

Model: 44.1%

FT Result

Away

3.44 Fair: 3.38 Pinnacle

+1.78%

Model: 29.6%

Atlante vs Pachuca

medium

Sat 12th, 04:00

FT Result

Home

3.85 Fair: 2.77 Kambi Group

+38.99%

Model: 36.1%

HT Result

Home

4.18 Fair: 3.30 1xBet

+26.67%

Model: 30.3%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.76 Fair: 1.60 1xBet

+10%

Model: 62.6%

HT Result

Draw

2.37 Fair: 2.24 Pinnacle

+5.8%

Model: 44.7%

FT Result

Draw

3.80 Fair: 3.76 FanDuel

+1.06%

Model: 26.6%

Tijuana vs Querétaro

medium

Sat 12th, 04:00

BTTS

No

2.25 Fair: 1.83 Kambi Group

+22.95%

Model: 54.6%

HT Result

Draw

2.36 Fair: 2.13 Pinnacle

+10.8%

Model: 46.9%

FT Result

Draw

3.60 Fair: 3.41 Kambi Group

+5.57%

Model: 29.3%

FT Result

Away

3.83 Fair: 3.71 Pinnacle

+3.23%

Model: 27%

Toluca vs Atlas

medium

Sun 13th, 00:00

HT Result

Draw

2.71 Fair: 2.62 Pinnacle

+3.44%

Model: 38.1%

Cruz Azul vs América

medium

Sun 13th, 04:00

FT Result

Away

3.45 Fair: 2.38 Kambi Group

+44.96%

Model: 42%

BTTS

No

2.18 Fair: 2.12 Kambi Group

+2.83%

Model: 47.2%

Puebla vs Toluca

medium

Wed 16th, 02:00

BTTS

No

2.50 Fair: 2.04 FanDuel

+22.55%

Model: 49.1%

HT Result

Draw

2.56 Fair: 2.29 Pinnacle

+11.79%

Model: 43.7%

FT Result

Draw

4.30 Fair: 4.08 FanDuel

+5.39%

Model: 24.5%

Double Chance

Home Draw

2.25 Fair: 2.19 Bet365

+2.74%

Model: 45.6%

FT Result

Home

4.80 Fair: 4.74 FanDuel

+1.27%

Model: 21.1%

What is a Value Bet?

A value bet exists when the bookmaker's odds are higher than our calculated fair odds (implied from probability). This means the bookmaker is offering better odds than the true probability suggests.

How We Calculate Value

We convert our probability model's prediction into implied odds using: Fair Odds = 100 / Probability%

For example, if we give a 50% chance to an outcome, the fair odds would be 2.00. If the bookmaker offers 2.20, that's a +10% value bet.

Value % Explained

0-5% - Small value edge
5-10% - Good value
10%+ - Strong value

More Value Bets

Looking for value bets across all leagues? Visit our main Value Bets page for comprehensive coverage.