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Liga MX Value Bets

Find EV Betting Opportunities

Value Bets for Liga MX

Find value bets for Liga MX fixtures. We compare our probability model against bookmaker odds to identify bets where the odds are higher than our implied probability suggests.

Atlas vs América

medium

Thu 22nd, 02:00

BTTS

No

2.52 Fair: 2.05 Betfair Exchange

+22.93%

Model: 48.7%

FT Result

Away

2.10 Fair: 1.87 FanDuel

+12.3%

Model: 53.4%

HT Result

Draw

2.45 Fair: 2.37 Pinnacle

+3.38%

Model: 42.2%

HT Result

Away

2.62 Fair: 2.55 Pinnacle

+2.75%

Model: 39.2%

Double Chance

Draw Away

1.30 Fair: 1.27 WilliamHill

+2.36%

Model: 79%

Puebla vs Monterrey

medium

Thu 22nd, 02:00

HT Result

Home

4.65 Fair: 4.10 1xBet

+13.41%

Model: 24.4%

FT Result

Home

4.40 Fair: 3.99 Betfair Exchange

+10.28%

Model: 25.1%

BTTS

No

2.18 Fair: 2.05 Betfair Exchange

+6.34%

Model: 48.8%

HT Result

Draw

2.37 Fair: 2.25 Pinnacle

+5.33%

Model: 44.5%

FT Result

Draw

3.88 Fair: 3.77 Pinnacle

+2.92%

Model: 26.5%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.95 Fair: 1.94 Bet365

+0.52%

Model: 51.6%

Toluca vs Tijuana

medium

Thu 22nd, 02:00

BTTS

No

2.36 Fair: 1.98 Betfair Exchange

+19.19%

Model: 50.4%

FT Result

Draw

5.80 Fair: 5.20 Betfair Exchange

+11.54%

Model: 19.2%

Pachuca vs Cruz Azul

medium

Thu 22nd, 04:10

BTTS

No

2.56 Fair: 2.17 Betfair Exchange

+17.97%

Model: 46.1%

HT Result

Home

3.55 Fair: 3.23 1xBet

+9.91%

Model: 31%

FT Result

Home

3.10 Fair: 2.99 Betfair Exchange

+3.68%

Model: 33.4%

HT Result

Draw

2.43 Fair: 2.36 Pinnacle

+2.97%

Model: 42.3%

Santos Laguna vs Pumas UNAM

medium

Thu 22nd, 04:10

BTTS

No

2.56 Fair: 2.34 Betfair Exchange

+9.4%

Model: 42.7%

FT Result

Away

3.15 Fair: 2.91 Betfair Exchange

+8.25%

Model: 34.4%

HT Result

Draw

2.45 Fair: 2.30 Pinnacle

+6.52%

Model: 43.5%

FT Result

Draw

3.75 Fair: 3.74 Betfair Exchange

+0.27%

Model: 26.8%

Necaxa vs Juárez

medium

Sat 24th, 02:00

FT Result

Away

4.50 Fair: 3.60 Bet365

+25%

Model: 27.8%

HT Result

Draw

2.55 Fair: 2.36 Pinnacle

+8.05%

Model: 42.4%

BTTS

Yes

1.67 Fair: 1.62 Bet365

+3.09%

Model: 61.8%

Double Chance

Draw Away

2.05 Fair: 2.00 WilliamHill

+2.5%

Model: 50%

HT Result

Away

4.69 Fair: 4.68 Pinnacle

+0.21%

Model: 21.4%

Atlante vs Atlético San Luis

medium

Sat 24th, 04:00

HT Result

Home

2.80 Fair: 2.58 Pinnacle

+8.53%

Model: 38.7%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.50 Fair: 1.40 Bet365

+7.14%

Model: 71.3%

FT Result

Home

2.28 Fair: 2.13 Betfair Exchange

+7.04%

Model: 47%

BTTS

Yes

1.68 Fair: 1.67 Betfair Exchange

+0.6%

Model: 59.9%

León vs Toluca

medium

Sun 25th, 00:00

FT Result

Home

3.40 Fair: 3.21 Kambi Group

+5.92%

Model: 31.2%

HT Result

Draw

2.40 Fair: 2.34 Bet365

+2.56%

Model: 42.7%

Monterrey vs Guadalajara

medium

Sun 25th, 01:00

FT Result

Home

2.53 Fair: 2.40 1xBet

+5.42%

Model: 41.7%

Pumas UNAM vs Tigres UANL

medium

Sun 25th, 03:10

FT Result

Home

3.05 Fair: 2.66 Betano

+14.66%

Model: 37.6%

HT Result

Home

3.72 Fair: 3.36 1xBet

+10.71%

Model: 29.7%

BTTS

No

2.14 Fair: 2.06 Kambi Group

+3.88%

Model: 48.5%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.61 Fair: 1.56 Bet365

+3.21%

Model: 64.2%

Atlas vs Puebla

medium

Sun 25th, 23:00

FT Result

Away

4.75 Fair: 3.63 Bet365

+30.85%

Model: 27.5%

HT Result

Away

5.00 Fair: 4.49 Bet365

+11.36%

Model: 22.3%

Double Chance

Draw Away

2.05 Fair: 1.85 Bet365

+10.81%

Model: 54%

HT Result

Draw

2.25 Fair: 2.23 Bet365

+0.9%

Model: 44.8%

Querétaro vs Cruz Azul

medium

Mon 26th, 01:00

FT Result

Away

2.10 Fair: 1.99 Bet365

+5.53%

Model: 50.2%

Double Chance

Draw Away

1.36 Fair: 1.33 Bet365

+2.26%

Model: 75.1%

América vs Pachuca

medium

Mon 26th, 01:05

HT Result

Away

4.94 Fair: 4.29 1xBet

+15.15%

Model: 23.3%

FT Result

Away

4.50 Fair: 4.19 Bet365

+7.4%

Model: 23.9%

BTTS

No

2.19 Fair: 2.11 1xBet

+3.79%

Model: 47.5%

Double Chance

Draw Away

2.10 Fair: 2.03 Bet365

+3.45%

Model: 49.3%

Tijuana vs Santos Laguna

medium

Mon 26th, 03:10

BTTS

No

2.28 Fair: 2.04 Kambi Group

+11.76%

Model: 49.1%

FT Result

Home

1.98 Fair: 1.81 Kambi Group

+9.39%

Model: 55.1%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.28 Fair: 1.26 Bet365

+1.59%

Model: 79.4%

América vs Tijuana

medium

Thu 29th, 03:00

BTTS

No

1.95 Fair: 1.90 Bet365

+2.63%

Model: 52.5%

What is a Value Bet?

A value bet exists when the bookmaker's odds are higher than our calculated fair odds (implied from probability). This means the bookmaker is offering better odds than the true probability suggests.

How We Calculate Value

We convert our probability model's prediction into implied odds using: Fair Odds = 100 / Probability%

For example, if we give a 50% chance to an outcome, the fair odds would be 2.00. If the bookmaker offers 2.20, that's a +10% value bet.

Value % Explained

0-5% - Small value edge
5-10% - Good value
10%+ - Strong value

More Value Bets

Looking for value bets across all leagues? Visit our main Value Bets page for comprehensive coverage.