We simulated Ajax vs Atalanta 100,000 times. Ajax won 50,562 of them (50.6%), the draw came up 23.7% of the time and Atalanta won 25.7%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 10.6%, while the likeliest Ajax win is 2-1 (9.3%). Both teams score in 62.8% of simulations.
| Ajax win | 50.6% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 23.7% |
| Atalanta win | 25.7% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (10.6%) |
| Expected goals | 1.92 – 1.32 |
| Both teams to score | 62.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.6% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.7% |
| Ajax score first | 55.8% |
| Atalanta score first | 39.4% |
| Ajax clean sheet | 27.1% |
| Atalanta clean sheet | 15.1% |
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420684517 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Ajax are favourites. They win 50.6% of our 100,000 simulations, against 23.7% for the draw and 25.7% for Atalanta. Including the draw, Ajax avoid defeat 74.3% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 10.6% of simulations. Next are 2-1 (9.3%) and 2-0 (7.2%). The likeliest Ajax win is 2-1 (9.3%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 62.8% of simulations. Ajax keep a clean sheet 27.1% of the time and Atalanta 15.1%.
The simulations average 3.25 goals: 1.92 for Ajax and 1.32 for Atalanta. Over 1.5 goals lands 83.9% of the time, over 2.5 goals 62.6% and over 3.5 goals 40.7%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Betfair Exchange), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
