We simulated Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City 100,000 times. Melbourne Victory won 41,906 of them (41.9%), the draw came up 26.3% of the time and Melbourne City won 31.8%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 12.3%, while the likeliest Melbourne Victory win is 2-1 (8.8%). Both teams score in 57.8% of simulations.
| Melbourne Victory win | 41.9% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 26.3% |
| Melbourne City win | 31.8% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (12.3%) |
| Expected goals | 1.54 – 1.32 |
| Both teams to score | 57.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.3% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.2% |
| Melbourne Victory score first | 49.6% |
| Melbourne City score first | 43.4% |
| Melbourne Victory clean sheet | 27.2% |
| Melbourne City clean sheet | 21.8% |
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420725406 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Melbourne Victory are favourites. They win 41.9% of our 100,000 simulations, against 26.3% for the draw and 31.8% for Melbourne City. Including the draw, Melbourne Victory avoid defeat 68.2% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 12.3% of simulations. Next are 2-1 (8.8%) and 1-0 (8.1%). The likeliest Melbourne Victory win is 2-1 (8.8%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 57.8% of simulations. Melbourne Victory keep a clean sheet 27.2% of the time and Melbourne City 21.8%.
The simulations average 2.86 goals: 1.54 for Melbourne Victory and 1.32 for Melbourne City. Over 1.5 goals lands 78.4% of the time, over 2.5 goals 54.3% and over 3.5 goals 32.2%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
