We simulated FC Barcelona vs Real Madrid 100,000 times. FC Barcelona won 64,941 of them (64.9%), the draw came up 16% of the time and Real Madrid won 19.1%. The most likely score is 2-1 (7.8%), and both teams score in 72.3% of simulations.
| FC Barcelona win | 64.9% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 16% |
| Real Madrid win | 19.1% |
| Most likely score | 2-1 (7.8%) |
| Expected goals | 2.83 – 1.51 |
| Both teams to score | 72.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 92.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80.1% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 62.4% |
| FC Barcelona score first | 63.8% |
| Real Madrid score first | 35% |
| FC Barcelona clean sheet | 22.6% |
| Real Madrid clean sheet | 6.3% |
Levante
Athletic Club
1.2–1.4
xG
49%
Over 2.5
Deportivo Alavés
Málaga
1.7–0.9
xG
48%
Over 2.5
Rayo Vallecano
Elche
1.7–1.0
xG
52%
Over 2.5
Racing Santander
Espanyol
1.6–1.4
xG
57%
Over 2.5
Valencia
Villarreal
1.2–1.6
xG
52%
Over 2.5
Atlético de Madrid
Deportivo A Coruña
2.3–0.7
xG
58%
Over 2.5
Athletic Club
Getafe
1.7–0.7
xG
43%
Over 2.5
Celta de Vigo
Real Betis
1.4–1.4
xG
54%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420654532 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
FC Barcelona are favourites. They win 64.9% of our 100,000 simulations, against 16% for the draw and 19.1% for Real Madrid. Including the draw, FC Barcelona avoid defeat 80.9% of the time.
2-1, which came up in 7.8% of simulations. Next are 3-1 (7.2%) and 2-2 (5.8%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 72.3% of simulations. FC Barcelona keep a clean sheet 22.6% of the time and Real Madrid 6.3%.
The simulations average 4.33 goals: 2.83 for FC Barcelona and 1.51 for Real Madrid. Over 1.5 goals lands 92.4% of the time, over 2.5 goals 80.1% and over 3.5 goals 62.4%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
