We simulated Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar 100,000 times. AZ Alkmaar won 59,094 of them (59.1%), the draw came up 21.7% of the time and Ararat-Armenia won 19.2%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 10%, while the likeliest AZ Alkmaar win is 1-2 (9.7%). Both teams score in 57.9% of simulations.
| Ararat-Armenia win | 19.2% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 21.7% |
| AZ Alkmaar win | 59.1% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (10%) |
| Expected goals | 1.09 – 2.07 |
| Both teams to score | 57.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.8% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 38.8% |
| Ararat-Armenia score first | 33.3% |
| AZ Alkmaar score first | 61.9% |
| Ararat-Armenia clean sheet | 13.1% |
| AZ Alkmaar clean sheet | 33.9% |
Union Saint-Gilloise
Hapoel Be'er Sheva
2.4–0.8
xG
62%
Over 2.5
Lech Poznań
Sunderland
1.1–1.8
xG
55%
Over 2.5
Ferencvárosi
Torreense
2.4–0.8
xG
60%
Over 2.5
Juventus
Rennes
2.0–1.0
xG
56%
Over 2.5
Sturm Graz
Olympique Marseille
1.4–1.7
xG
58%
Over 2.5
OFI
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
0.9–2.7
xG
69%
Over 2.5
Dinamo Zagreb
NEC Nijmegen
2.3–1.1
xG
64%
Over 2.5
Celje
Salzburg
1.1–1.9
xG
57%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420684635 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
AZ Alkmaar are favourites. They win 59.1% of our 100,000 simulations, against 21.7% for the draw and 19.2% for Ararat-Armenia. Including the draw, AZ Alkmaar avoid defeat 80.8% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 10% of simulations. Next are 1-2 (9.7%) and 0-2 (9%). The likeliest AZ Alkmaar win is 1-2 (9.7%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 57.9% of simulations. Ararat-Armenia keep a clean sheet 13.1% of the time and AZ Alkmaar 33.9%.
The simulations average 3.16 goals: 1.09 for Ararat-Armenia and 2.07 for AZ Alkmaar. Over 1.5 goals lands 82.4% of the time, over 2.5 goals 60.8% and over 3.5 goals 38.8%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
