We simulated Sturm Graz vs Olympique Marseille 100,000 times. Olympique Marseille won 43,986 of them (44%), the draw came up 25.5% of the time and Sturm Graz won 30.5%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 11.7%, while the likeliest Olympique Marseille win is 1-2 (9%). Both teams score in 60.4% of simulations.
| Sturm Graz win | 30.5% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 25.5% |
| Olympique Marseille win | 44% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (11.7%) |
| Expected goals | 1.35 – 1.67 |
| Both teams to score | 60.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.8% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.7% |
| Sturm Graz score first | 43.4% |
| Olympique Marseille score first | 50.7% |
| Sturm Graz clean sheet | 19.4% |
| Olympique Marseille clean sheet | 26.2% |
Ararat-Armenia
AZ Alkmaar
1.1–2.1
xG
61%
Over 2.5
Union Saint-Gilloise
Hapoel Be'er Sheva
2.4–0.8
xG
62%
Over 2.5
Lech Poznań
Sunderland
1.1–1.8
xG
55%
Over 2.5
Ferencvárosi
Torreense
2.4–0.8
xG
60%
Over 2.5
Juventus
Rennes
2.0–1.0
xG
56%
Over 2.5
OFI
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
0.9–2.7
xG
69%
Over 2.5
Dinamo Zagreb
NEC Nijmegen
2.3–1.1
xG
64%
Over 2.5
Celje
Salzburg
1.1–1.9
xG
57%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420684726 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Olympique Marseille are favourites. They win 44% of our 100,000 simulations, against 25.5% for the draw and 30.5% for Sturm Graz. Including the draw, Olympique Marseille avoid defeat 69.5% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 11.7% of simulations. Next are 1-2 (9%) and 0-1 (7.4%). The likeliest Olympique Marseille win is 1-2 (9%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 60.4% of simulations. Sturm Graz keep a clean sheet 19.4% of the time and Olympique Marseille 26.2%.
The simulations average 3.02 goals: 1.35 for Sturm Graz and 1.67 for Olympique Marseille. Over 1.5 goals lands 80.8% of the time, over 2.5 goals 57.8% and over 3.5 goals 35.7%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Betfair Exchange), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
