We simulated Sheffield United vs Derby County 100,000 times. Sheffield United won 53,448 of them (53.5%), the draw came up 23.4% of the time and Derby County won 23.2%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 11%, while the likeliest Sheffield United win is 1-0 (10.4%). Both teams score in 53.9% of simulations.
| Sheffield United win | 53.5% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 23.4% |
| Derby County win | 23.2% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (11%) |
| Expected goals | 1.76 – 1.07 |
| Both teams to score | 53.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.6% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.6% |
| Sheffield United score first | 58.8% |
| Derby County score first | 35.2% |
| Sheffield United clean sheet | 34.6% |
| Derby County clean sheet | 17.6% |
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Portsmouth
1.8–0.9
xG
50%
Over 2.5
Bolton Wanderers
Middlesbrough
1.3–1.9
xG
61%
Over 2.5
Portsmouth
Millwall
1.5–1.3
xG
52%
Over 2.5
Charlton Athletic
Norwich City
1.3–1.5
xG
52%
Over 2.5
Cardiff City
Birmingham City
Awaiting odds
West Ham United
Southampton
Awaiting odds
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Watford
Awaiting odds
Preston North End
West Bromwich Albion
Awaiting odds
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420644001 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Sheffield United are favourites. They win 53.5% of our 100,000 simulations, against 23.4% for the draw and 23.2% for Derby County. Including the draw, Sheffield United avoid defeat 76.8% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 11% of simulations. Next are 1-0 (10.4%) and 2-1 (9.6%). The likeliest Sheffield United win is 1-0 (10.4%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 53.9% of simulations. Sheffield United keep a clean sheet 34.6% of the time and Derby County 17.6%.
The simulations average 2.83 goals: 1.76 for Sheffield United and 1.07 for Derby County. Over 1.5 goals lands 77.1% of the time, over 2.5 goals 53.6% and over 3.5 goals 31.6%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
