We simulated FC Bayern München vs Arsenal 100,000 times. FC Bayern München won 50,637 of them (50.6%), the draw came up 23.2% of the time and Arsenal won 26.2%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 10.5%, while the likeliest FC Bayern München win is 2-1 (9.4%). Both teams score in 61.5% of simulations.
| FC Bayern München win | 50.6% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 23.2% |
| Arsenal win | 26.2% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (10.5%) |
| Expected goals | 1.88 – 1.30 |
| Both teams to score | 61.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.4% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 39.3% |
| FC Bayern München score first | 54.2% |
| Arsenal score first | 41.1% |
| FC Bayern München clean sheet | 27.7% |
| Arsenal clean sheet | 15.6% |
Como
Manchester United
1.8–1.3
xG
60%
Over 2.5
LOSC Lille
Galatasaray
1.7–1.4
xG
59%
Over 2.5
Inter
Shakhtar Donetsk
2.9–0.9
xG
73%
Over 2.5
Real Madrid
RB Leipzig
3.0–1.1
xG
78%
Over 2.5
Real Betis
Feyenoord
2.3–1.4
xG
71%
Over 2.5
Club Brugge
Lens
2.1–1.5
xG
69%
Over 2.5
Sporting CP
LASK
3.0–0.9
xG
74%
Over 2.5
Aston Villa
Viking
3.0–1.0
xG
76%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420673889 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
FC Bayern München are favourites. They win 50.6% of our 100,000 simulations, against 23.2% for the draw and 26.2% for Arsenal. Including the draw, FC Bayern München avoid defeat 73.8% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 10.5% of simulations. Next are 2-1 (9.4%) and 1-0 (7.5%). The likeliest FC Bayern München win is 2-1 (9.4%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 61.5% of simulations. FC Bayern München keep a clean sheet 27.7% of the time and Arsenal 15.6%.
The simulations average 3.18 goals: 1.88 for FC Bayern München and 1.30 for Arsenal. Over 1.5 goals lands 82.7% of the time, over 2.5 goals 61.4% and over 3.5 goals 39.3%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
