We simulated Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig 100,000 times. Real Madrid won 74,455 of them (74.5%), the draw came up 14.7% of the time and RB Leipzig won 10.8%. The most likely score is 2-1 (7.9%), and both teams score in 64.5% of simulations.
| Real Madrid win | 74.5% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 14.7% |
| RB Leipzig win | 10.8% |
| Most likely score | 2-1 (7.9%) |
| Expected goals | 3.04 – 1.14 |
| Both teams to score | 64.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 92.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 78% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 59.5% |
| Real Madrid score first | 74.7% |
| RB Leipzig score first | 23.1% |
| Real Madrid clean sheet | 32.5% |
| RB Leipzig clean sheet | 5.2% |
Como
Manchester United
1.8–1.3
xG
60%
Over 2.5
LOSC Lille
Galatasaray
1.7–1.4
xG
59%
Over 2.5
FC Bayern München
Arsenal
1.9–1.3
xG
61%
Over 2.5
Inter
Shakhtar Donetsk
2.9–0.9
xG
73%
Over 2.5
Real Betis
Feyenoord
2.3–1.4
xG
71%
Over 2.5
Club Brugge
Lens
2.1–1.5
xG
69%
Over 2.5
Sporting CP
LASK
3.0–0.9
xG
74%
Over 2.5
Aston Villa
Viking
3.0–1.0
xG
76%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420684462 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Real Madrid are favourites. They win 74.5% of our 100,000 simulations, against 14.7% for the draw and 10.8% for RB Leipzig. Including the draw, Real Madrid avoid defeat 89.2% of the time.
2-1, which came up in 7.9% of simulations. Next are 3-1 (7.9%) and 2-0 (7.1%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 64.5% of simulations. Real Madrid keep a clean sheet 32.5% of the time and RB Leipzig 5.2%.
The simulations average 4.18 goals: 3.04 for Real Madrid and 1.14 for RB Leipzig. Over 1.5 goals lands 92.1% of the time, over 2.5 goals 78% and over 3.5 goals 59.5%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Betfair Exchange), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
