We simulated Lincoln City vs Burnley 100,000 times. Burnley won 41,994 of them (42%), the draw came up 25.6% of the time and Lincoln City won 32.4%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 11.9%, while the likeliest Burnley win is 1-2 (8.8%). Both teams score in 57.4% of simulations.
| Lincoln City win | 32.4% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 25.6% |
| Burnley win | 42% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (11.9%) |
| Expected goals | 1.32 – 1.54 |
| Both teams to score | 57.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.2% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.1% |
| Lincoln City score first | 45.8% |
| Burnley score first | 47.8% |
| Lincoln City clean sheet | 21.9% |
| Burnley clean sheet | 27.1% |
Bolton Wanderers
Middlesbrough
1.2–2.0
xG
61%
Over 2.5
Sheffield United
Derby County
1.8–1.1
xG
54%
Over 2.5
Portsmouth
Millwall
1.5–1.3
xG
53%
Over 2.5
Charlton Athletic
Norwich City
1.3–1.4
xG
49%
Over 2.5
Cardiff City
Birmingham City
1.6–1.5
xG
60%
Over 2.5
West Ham United
Southampton
2.3–1.2
xG
66%
Over 2.5
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Watford
2.3–0.8
xG
59%
Over 2.5
Preston North End
West Bromwich Albion
1.1–1.6
xG
50%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420644018 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Burnley are favourites. They win 42% of our 100,000 simulations, against 25.6% for the draw and 32.4% for Lincoln City. Including the draw, Burnley avoid defeat 67.6% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 11.9% of simulations. Next are 1-2 (8.8%) and 0-1 (8.5%). The likeliest Burnley win is 1-2 (8.8%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 57.4% of simulations. Lincoln City keep a clean sheet 21.9% of the time and Burnley 27.1%.
The simulations average 2.86 goals: 1.32 for Lincoln City and 1.54 for Burnley. Over 1.5 goals lands 78% of the time, over 2.5 goals 54.2% and over 3.5 goals 32.1%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
