We simulated Stoke City vs Bristol City 100,000 times. Stoke City won 42,653 of them (42.7%), the draw came up 27% of the time and Bristol City won 30.4%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 12.7%, while the likeliest Stoke City win is 2-1 (8.9%). Both teams score in 55.7% of simulations.
| Stoke City win | 42.7% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 27% |
| Bristol City win | 30.4% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (12.7%) |
| Expected goals | 1.51 – 1.24 |
| Both teams to score | 55.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.6% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.7% |
| Stoke City score first | 55.1% |
| Bristol City score first | 37.5% |
| Stoke City clean sheet | 29.3% |
| Bristol City clean sheet | 22.5% |
Bolton Wanderers
Middlesbrough
1.2–2.0
xG
61%
Over 2.5
Sheffield United
Derby County
1.8–1.1
xG
54%
Over 2.5
Portsmouth
Millwall
1.5–1.3
xG
53%
Over 2.5
Charlton Athletic
Norwich City
1.3–1.4
xG
49%
Over 2.5
Cardiff City
Birmingham City
1.6–1.5
xG
60%
Over 2.5
West Ham United
Southampton
2.3–1.2
xG
66%
Over 2.5
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Watford
2.3–0.8
xG
59%
Over 2.5
Preston North End
West Bromwich Albion
1.1–1.6
xG
50%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420644035 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Stoke City are favourites. They win 42.7% of our 100,000 simulations, against 27% for the draw and 30.4% for Bristol City. Including the draw, Stoke City avoid defeat 69.6% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 12.7% of simulations. Next are 2-1 (8.9%) and 1-0 (8.8%). The likeliest Stoke City win is 2-1 (8.9%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 55.7% of simulations. Stoke City keep a clean sheet 29.3% of the time and Bristol City 22.5%.
The simulations average 2.75 goals: 1.51 for Stoke City and 1.24 for Bristol City. Over 1.5 goals lands 76.6% of the time, over 2.5 goals 51.6% and over 3.5 goals 29.7%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
