We simulated Botafogo vs Vasco da Gama 100,000 times. Vasco da Gama won 36,875 of them (36.9%), the draw came up 27.5% of the time and Botafogo won 35.6%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 13%, while the likeliest Vasco da Gama win is 1-2 (8.2%). Both teams score in 55.5% of simulations.
| Botafogo win | 35.6% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 27.5% |
| Vasco da Gama win | 36.9% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (13%) |
| Expected goals | 1.34 – 1.37 |
| Both teams to score | 55.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.8% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% |
| Botafogo score first | 45.6% |
| Vasco da Gama score first | 46.5% |
| Botafogo clean sheet | 25.8% |
| Vasco da Gama clean sheet | 26.5% |
Bragantino
Mirassol
1.8–1.0
xG
54%
Over 2.5
Internacional
Corinthians
1.4–1.0
xG
44%
Over 2.5
Remo
Grêmio
1.5–1.2
xG
49%
Over 2.5
Vitória
Chapecoense
1.7–0.9
xG
49%
Over 2.5
Cruzeiro
São Paulo
1.7–0.9
xG
49%
Over 2.5
Santos
Flamengo
1.1–1.6
xG
49%
Over 2.5
Athletico PR
Atlético Mineiro
1.6–1.0
xG
47%
Over 2.5
Fluminense
Coritiba
2.1–0.8
xG
54%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420493611 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Vasco da Gama are favourites. They win 36.9% of our 100,000 simulations, against 27.5% for the draw and 35.6% for Botafogo. Including the draw, Vasco da Gama avoid defeat 64.4% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 13% of simulations. Next are 1-2 (8.2%) and 0-1 (8.2%). The likeliest Vasco da Gama win is 1-2 (8.2%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 55.5% of simulations. Botafogo keep a clean sheet 25.8% of the time and Vasco da Gama 26.5%.
The simulations average 2.72 goals: 1.34 for Botafogo and 1.37 for Vasco da Gama. Over 1.5 goals lands 76% of the time, over 2.5 goals 50.8% and over 3.5 goals 29%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Betfair Exchange), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
