We simulated Vitória vs Chapecoense 100,000 times. Vitória won 54,271 of them (54.3%), the draw came up 25.9% of the time and Chapecoense won 19.8%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 12.2%, while the likeliest Vitória win is 1-0 (11.4%). Both teams score in 49.8% of simulations.
| Vitória win | 54.3% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 25.9% |
| Chapecoense win | 19.8% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (12.2%) |
| Expected goals | 1.69 – 0.93 |
| Both teams to score | 49.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.5% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.9% |
| Vitória score first | 61.5% |
| Chapecoense score first | 29.9% |
| Vitória clean sheet | 39.9% |
| Chapecoense clean sheet | 18.9% |
Bragantino
Mirassol
1.8–1.0
xG
54%
Over 2.5
Internacional
Corinthians
1.4–1.0
xG
44%
Over 2.5
Remo
Grêmio
1.5–1.2
xG
49%
Over 2.5
Botafogo
Vasco da Gama
1.3–1.4
xG
51%
Over 2.5
Cruzeiro
São Paulo
1.7–0.9
xG
49%
Over 2.5
Santos
Flamengo
1.1–1.6
xG
49%
Over 2.5
Athletico PR
Atlético Mineiro
1.6–1.0
xG
47%
Over 2.5
Fluminense
Coritiba
2.1–0.8
xG
54%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420493605 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Vitória are favourites. They win 54.3% of our 100,000 simulations, against 25.9% for the draw and 19.8% for Chapecoense. Including the draw, Vitória avoid defeat 80.2% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 12.2% of simulations. Next are 1-0 (11.4%) and 2-0 (10.3%). The likeliest Vitória win is 1-0 (11.4%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 49.8% of simulations. Vitória keep a clean sheet 39.9% of the time and Chapecoense 18.9%.
The simulations average 2.62 goals: 1.69 for Vitória and 0.93 for Chapecoense. Over 1.5 goals lands 74.2% of the time, over 2.5 goals 48.5% and over 3.5 goals 26.9%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Betfair Exchange), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
