We simulated Cruzeiro vs São Paulo 100,000 times. Cruzeiro won 54,342 of them (54.3%), the draw came up 25.4% of the time and São Paulo won 20.2%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 12%, while the likeliest Cruzeiro win is 1-0 (11.5%). Both teams score in 50.1% of simulations.
| Cruzeiro win | 54.3% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 25.4% |
| São Paulo win | 20.2% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (12%) |
| Expected goals | 1.70 – 0.94 |
| Both teams to score | 50.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.4% |
| Cruzeiro score first | 56.2% |
| São Paulo score first | 35.5% |
| Cruzeiro clean sheet | 39.3% |
| São Paulo clean sheet | 18.7% |
Bragantino
Mirassol
1.8–1.0
xG
54%
Over 2.5
Internacional
Corinthians
1.4–1.0
xG
44%
Over 2.5
Remo
Grêmio
1.5–1.2
xG
49%
Over 2.5
Vitória
Chapecoense
1.7–0.9
xG
49%
Over 2.5
Botafogo
Vasco da Gama
1.3–1.4
xG
51%
Over 2.5
Santos
Flamengo
1.1–1.6
xG
49%
Over 2.5
Athletico PR
Atlético Mineiro
1.6–1.0
xG
47%
Over 2.5
Fluminense
Coritiba
2.1–0.8
xG
54%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420493775 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Cruzeiro are favourites. They win 54.3% of our 100,000 simulations, against 25.4% for the draw and 20.2% for São Paulo. Including the draw, Cruzeiro avoid defeat 79.8% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 12% of simulations. Next are 1-0 (11.5%) and 2-0 (10.2%). The likeliest Cruzeiro win is 1-0 (11.5%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 50.1% of simulations. Cruzeiro keep a clean sheet 39.3% of the time and São Paulo 18.7%.
The simulations average 2.64 goals: 1.70 for Cruzeiro and 0.94 for São Paulo. Over 1.5 goals lands 74.4% of the time, over 2.5 goals 49% and over 3.5 goals 27.4%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
