We simulated Espanyol vs Atlético de Madrid 100,000 times. Atlético de Madrid won 49,367 of them (49.4%), the draw came up 25.4% of the time and Espanyol won 25.3%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 11.9%, while the likeliest Atlético de Madrid win is 0-1 (9.7%). Both teams score in 54.8% of simulations.
| Espanyol win | 25.3% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 25.4% |
| Atlético de Madrid win | 49.4% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (11.9%) |
| Expected goals | 1.12 – 1.67 |
| Both teams to score | 54.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.6% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.6% |
| Espanyol score first | 38% |
| Atlético de Madrid score first | 55.1% |
| Espanyol clean sheet | 19.3% |
| Atlético de Madrid clean sheet | 32.9% |
Deportivo A Coruña
Levante
1.6–1.0
xG
47%
Over 2.5
Villarreal
Elche
2.2–1.1
xG
64%
Over 2.5
Real Betis
FC Barcelona
1.3–2.5
xG
73%
Over 2.5
Valencia
Athletic Club
1.1–1.5
xG
47%
Over 2.5
Osasuna
Racing Santander
1.9–1.2
xG
58%
Over 2.5
Celta de Vigo
Deportivo Alavés
1.5–1.0
xG
44%
Over 2.5
Málaga
Real Sociedad
1.4–1.5
xG
54%
Over 2.5
Real Madrid
Sevilla
2.6–0.8
xG
66%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420654563 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Atlético de Madrid are favourites. They win 49.4% of our 100,000 simulations, against 25.4% for the draw and 25.3% for Espanyol. Including the draw, Atlético de Madrid avoid defeat 74.8% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 11.9% of simulations. Next are 0-1 (9.7%) and 1-2 (9.4%). The likeliest Atlético de Madrid win is 0-1 (9.7%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 54.8% of simulations. Espanyol keep a clean sheet 19.3% of the time and Atlético de Madrid 32.9%.
The simulations average 2.79 goals: 1.12 for Espanyol and 1.67 for Atlético de Madrid. Over 1.5 goals lands 76.9% of the time, over 2.5 goals 52.6% and over 3.5 goals 30.6%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
