We simulated Málaga vs Real Sociedad 100,000 times. Real Sociedad won 38,891 of them (38.9%), the draw came up 26.9% of the time and Málaga won 34.2%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 12.6%, while the likeliest Real Sociedad win is 1-2 (8.5%). Both teams score in 58.2% of simulations.
| Málaga win | 34.2% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 26.9% |
| Real Sociedad win | 38.9% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (12.6%) |
| Expected goals | 1.38 – 1.48 |
| Both teams to score | 58.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.2% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.2% |
| Málaga score first | 39% |
| Real Sociedad score first | 54% |
| Málaga clean sheet | 23.1% |
| Real Sociedad clean sheet | 25.6% |
Deportivo A Coruña
Levante
1.6–1.0
xG
47%
Over 2.5
Espanyol
Atlético de Madrid
1.1–1.7
xG
53%
Over 2.5
Villarreal
Elche
2.2–1.1
xG
64%
Over 2.5
Real Betis
FC Barcelona
1.3–2.5
xG
73%
Over 2.5
Valencia
Athletic Club
1.1–1.5
xG
47%
Over 2.5
Osasuna
Racing Santander
1.9–1.2
xG
58%
Over 2.5
Celta de Vigo
Deportivo Alavés
1.5–1.0
xG
44%
Over 2.5
Real Madrid
Sevilla
2.6–0.8
xG
66%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420654569 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Real Sociedad are favourites. They win 38.9% of our 100,000 simulations, against 26.9% for the draw and 34.2% for Málaga. Including the draw, Real Sociedad avoid defeat 65.8% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 12.6% of simulations. Next are 1-2 (8.5%) and 2-1 (7.9%). The likeliest Real Sociedad win is 1-2 (8.5%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 58.2% of simulations. Málaga keep a clean sheet 23.1% of the time and Real Sociedad 25.6%.
The simulations average 2.86 goals: 1.38 for Málaga and 1.48 for Real Sociedad. Over 1.5 goals lands 78.6% of the time, over 2.5 goals 54.2% and over 3.5 goals 32.2%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
