We simulated Milton Keynes Dons vs Luton Town 100,000 times. Luton Town won 45,409 of them (45.4%), the draw came up 22.1% of the time and Milton Keynes Dons won 32.5%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 9.8%, while the likeliest Luton Town win is 1-2 (8.9%). Both teams score in 61.7% of simulations.
| Milton Keynes Dons win | 32.5% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 22.1% |
| Luton Town win | 45.4% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (9.8%) |
| Expected goals | 1.43 – 1.74 |
| Both teams to score | 61.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.2% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 39.1% |
| Milton Keynes Dons score first | 46.9% |
| Luton Town score first | 49.3% |
| Milton Keynes Dons clean sheet | 18% |
| Luton Town clean sheet | 24.2% |
Mansfield Town
Oxford United
1.6–1.3
xG
55%
Over 2.5
Peterborough United
Burton Albion
1.8–1.2
xG
56%
Over 2.5
Sheffield Wednesday
AFC Wimbledon
1.9–1.0
xG
57%
Over 2.5
Barnsley
Cambridge United
1.5–1.6
xG
58%
Over 2.5
Plymouth Argyle
Huddersfield Town
1.4–1.5
xG
55%
Over 2.5
Wycombe Wanderers
Notts County
1.7–1.2
xG
54%
Over 2.5
Leyton Orient
Blackpool
1.5–1.4
xG
57%
Over 2.5
Leicester City
Doncaster Rovers
1.8–1.4
xG
61%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420647314 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Luton Town are favourites. They win 45.4% of our 100,000 simulations, against 22.1% for the draw and 32.5% for Milton Keynes Dons. Including the draw, Luton Town avoid defeat 67.5% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 9.8% of simulations. Next are 1-2 (8.9%) and 0-1 (7.9%). The likeliest Luton Town win is 1-2 (8.9%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 61.7% of simulations. Milton Keynes Dons keep a clean sheet 18% of the time and Luton Town 24.2%.
The simulations average 3.17 goals: 1.43 for Milton Keynes Dons and 1.74 for Luton Town. Over 1.5 goals lands 81.7% of the time, over 2.5 goals 61.2% and over 3.5 goals 39.1%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
