We simulated Náutico vs Novorizontino 100,000 times. Novorizontino won 41,114 of them (41.1%), the draw came up 28.3% of the time and Náutico won 30.6%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 13.4%, while the likeliest Novorizontino win is 0-1 (9.2%). Both teams score in 53.8% of simulations.
| Náutico win | 30.6% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 28.3% |
| Novorizontino win | 41.1% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (13.4%) |
| Expected goals | 1.20 – 1.43 |
| Both teams to score | 53.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.7% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.1% |
| Náutico score first | 39.6% |
| Novorizontino score first | 51.7% |
| Náutico clean sheet | 24.4% |
| Novorizontino clean sheet | 30.5% |
Sport Recife
São Bernardo
1.7–1.0
xG
49%
Over 2.5
Goiás
Athletic Club
1.4–0.9
xG
40%
Over 2.5
Ponte Preta
Juventude
0.6–2.0
xG
47%
Over 2.5
Avaí
Londrina
1.4–0.9
xG
41%
Over 2.5
Operário PR
Botafogo SP
1.5–0.9
xG
44%
Over 2.5
América Mineiro
Fortaleza
1.0–1.4
xG
42%
Over 2.5
Vila Nova
Cuiabá
1.4–0.8
xG
38%
Over 2.5
CRB
Atlético GO
1.4–1.0
xG
44%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420534165 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Novorizontino are favourites. They win 41.1% of our 100,000 simulations, against 28.3% for the draw and 30.6% for Náutico. Including the draw, Novorizontino avoid defeat 69.4% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 13.4% of simulations. Next are 0-1 (9.2%) and 1-2 (8.7%). The likeliest Novorizontino win is 0-1 (9.2%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 53.8% of simulations. Náutico keep a clean sheet 24.4% of the time and Novorizontino 30.5%.
The simulations average 2.63 goals: 1.20 for Náutico and 1.43 for Novorizontino. Over 1.5 goals lands 74.7% of the time, over 2.5 goals 48.7% and over 3.5 goals 27.1%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
