We simulated Palmeiras vs Bahia 100,000 times. Palmeiras won 60,227 of them (60.2%), the draw came up 22.6% of the time and Bahia won 17.2%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 10.6%, while the likeliest Palmeiras win is 2-0 (10.2%). Both teams score in 53.7% of simulations.
| Palmeiras win | 60.2% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 22.6% |
| Bahia win | 17.2% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (10.6%) |
| Expected goals | 1.99 – 0.97 |
| Both teams to score | 53.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.4% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.3% |
| Palmeiras score first | 66.5% |
| Bahia score first | 27.4% |
| Palmeiras clean sheet | 38.3% |
| Bahia clean sheet | 14.1% |
Bragantino
Mirassol
1.8–1.0
xG
54%
Over 2.5
Internacional
Corinthians
1.4–1.0
xG
44%
Over 2.5
Remo
Grêmio
1.5–1.2
xG
49%
Over 2.5
Vitória
Chapecoense
1.7–0.9
xG
49%
Over 2.5
Botafogo
Vasco da Gama
1.3–1.4
xG
51%
Over 2.5
Cruzeiro
São Paulo
1.7–0.9
xG
49%
Over 2.5
Santos
Flamengo
1.1–1.6
xG
49%
Over 2.5
Athletico PR
Atlético Mineiro
1.6–1.0
xG
47%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420493609 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Palmeiras are favourites. They win 60.2% of our 100,000 simulations, against 22.6% for the draw and 17.2% for Bahia. Including the draw, Palmeiras avoid defeat 82.8% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 10.6% of simulations. Next are 2-0 (10.2%) and 1-0 (9.7%). The likeliest Palmeiras win is 2-0 (10.2%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 53.7% of simulations. Palmeiras keep a clean sheet 38.3% of the time and Bahia 14.1%.
The simulations average 2.96 goals: 1.99 for Palmeiras and 0.97 for Bahia. Over 1.5 goals lands 79.7% of the time, over 2.5 goals 56.4% and over 3.5 goals 34.3%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Betfair Exchange), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
