We simulated Instituto vs Boca Juniors 100,000 times. Instituto won 36,281 of them (36.3%), the draw came up 30.2% of the time and Boca Juniors won 33.5%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 14%, while the likeliest Instituto win is 1-0 (10.6%). Both teams score in 47.8% of simulations.
| Instituto win | 36.3% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 30.2% |
| Boca Juniors win | 33.5% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (14%) |
| Expected goals | 1.19 – 1.13 |
| Both teams to score | 47.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.7% |
| Instituto score first | 48% |
| Boca Juniors score first | 40.7% |
| Instituto clean sheet | 32.5% |
| Boca Juniors clean sheet | 30.8% |
Aldosivi
Sarmiento
1.3–1.0
xG
40%
Over 2.5
Gimnasia La Plata
Atlético Tucumán
1.6–0.9
xG
45%
Over 2.5
Unión Santa Fe
Defensa y Justicia
1.5–1.1
xG
46%
Over 2.5
Barracas Central
Huracán
1.0–0.9
xG
29%
Over 2.5
Central Cordoba SdE
Estudiantes
1.0–1.2
xG
37%
Over 2.5
Tigre
Banfield
1.7–0.8
xG
43%
Over 2.5
River Plate
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto
2.4–0.4
xG
52%
Over 2.5
San Lorenzo
Deportivo Riestra
1.1–0.9
xG
30%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420490468 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Instituto are favourites. They win 36.3% of our 100,000 simulations, against 30.2% for the draw and 33.5% for Boca Juniors. Including the draw, Instituto avoid defeat 66.5% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 14% of simulations. Next are 0-0 (11.1%) and 1-0 (10.6%). The likeliest Instituto win is 1-0 (10.6%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 47.8% of simulations. Instituto keep a clean sheet 32.5% of the time and Boca Juniors 30.8%.
The simulations average 2.33 goals: 1.19 for Instituto and 1.13 for Boca Juniors. Over 1.5 goals lands 68.3% of the time, over 2.5 goals 41% and over 3.5 goals 20.7%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Betfair Exchange), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
