We simulated Newport County vs Chesterfield 100,000 times. Chesterfield won 43,598 of them (43.6%), the draw came up 27% of the time and Newport County won 29.5%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 12.7%, while the likeliest Chesterfield win is 0-1 (9.6%). Both teams score in 54.1% of simulations.
| Newport County win | 29.5% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 27% |
| Chesterfield win | 43.6% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (12.7%) |
| Expected goals | 1.18 – 1.50 |
| Both teams to score | 54.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.2% |
| Newport County score first | 38.7% |
| Chesterfield score first | 53.4% |
| Newport County clean sheet | 22.8% |
| Chesterfield clean sheet | 30.9% |
Barnet
York City
1.8–1.3
xG
61%
Over 2.5
Grimsby Town
York City
1.7–1.3
xG
56%
Over 2.5
Port Vale
Rochdale
1.7–0.8
xG
46%
Over 2.5
Salford City
Exeter City
1.9–0.8
xG
50%
Over 2.5
Oldham Athletic
Crawley Town
2.2–1.1
xG
64%
Over 2.5
Fleetwood Town
Bristol Rovers
1.5–1.3
xG
51%
Over 2.5
Colchester United
Walsall
1.4–1.2
xG
49%
Over 2.5
Crewe Alexandra
Barnet
1.5–1.6
xG
61%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420646562 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Chesterfield are favourites. They win 43.6% of our 100,000 simulations, against 27% for the draw and 29.5% for Newport County. Including the draw, Chesterfield avoid defeat 70.6% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 12.7% of simulations. Next are 0-1 (9.6%) and 1-2 (8.9%). The likeliest Chesterfield win is 0-1 (9.6%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 54.1% of simulations. Newport County keep a clean sheet 22.8% of the time and Chesterfield 30.9%.
The simulations average 2.68 goals: 1.18 for Newport County and 1.50 for Chesterfield. Over 1.5 goals lands 75.2% of the time, over 2.5 goals 50% and over 3.5 goals 28.2%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
